Rock Villa

Deepening convergence between China and Russia is beginning to resemble a paradigm shift in global order — not yet a formal alliance, but something potentially more consequential: the gradual construction of a Eurasian strategic sphere designed to... geopoliticalmonitor.com/a-eurasian-pac…

@vali_nasr @AliVaez @FT Rather confusing! Does the current state of affairs deter the US from mowing the lawn 🤔

My piece in @FT on why Iran has been reluctant to sign on to the MoU agreement and why the agreement is not likely to easily lead to a larger deal in 30 or 60 days: "The dominant view shared across the political spectrum in Tehran is that, given Trump’s record, the promise of diplomacy could actually raise the threat of war. Washington’s seemingly generous concessions are interpreted as too good to be true. Tehran suspects that the US seeks not a lasting peace but a free hand to keep Iran isolated and weak, checking its nuclear and missile activities by periodically “mowing the lawn”. Faced with such a prospect, deterrence is all that matters. Iranian leaders talk of control of the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as the key to deterrence. They believe any durable deal that includes economic compensation for war damage and lasting sanctions relief would hinge on these two issues; the US is demanding that Iran concede on both. This makes striking a lasting deal highly unlikely."👇🏽 ft.com/content/6ccf1b…

@tparsi Israel is demanding, Iran is standing firm…the hatred is explicit

It is not Lebanon that is emerging as the weak link in the memorandum, but rather Israel. Once again, Israel refuses to be bound by any regional ceasefire and wants to include clauses that allows it to turn the ceasefire into a Swiss cheese. Just as it has in Gaza and in Lebanon before, it wants to render the ceasefire void of any meaning. So far, the Iranians are standing firm. Not just because it needs to defend its standing amongst the Axis and not appear as having betrayed them. But also because the entire agreement won't be worth the paper it's written on if Trump even before the agreement comes into effect starts to cave to Israeli pressure. No US Iran agreement will be useful if the United States cannot rein in Israel. This will be a test for Trump. America First or Israel First?

@citrinowicz @AliVaez Think differently and act differently. What are the options?

The wars and the strategic fallout that followed should force a fundamental reassessment of the approach toward Iran. Iran has not and will not become more moderate or constructive , quite the opposite. But these conflicts have demonstrated that kinetic force is not necessarily the solution. In fact, the reality that emerged may be even more dangerous. More broadly, the long-standing assumption that military means alone could produce positive political change in Iran has effectively collapsed. This is, incidentally, the most significant blow to Netanyahu and to the hardliners in Washington who built much of their worldview around the idea of a military solution to the Iranian challenge. It is time to go back to the drawing board and think differently: differently about Iran, differently about the prospects for influencing its behavior, and above all differently about the role of military force in weakening Tehran. Threats and military pressure should remain part of the toolbox, but they cannot continue to be the sole pillar of strategy. The time has come to think differently — and to act differently. #iran #IranWar‌

@DanielLDavis1 Out suffer!

Is this a joke? The president is seriously considering mil action “unless negotiations improve”? Iran is in the position of advantage and can out-suffer the U.S. and Israel. Our *genuine* options are a) ‘walk away’ and pretend actions already conducted equal ‘victory’ or b) the worst of all possibilities: return to *any* type of air and missile strikes. If a) it’ll b recognized as a strategic defeat in the eyes of all but the president’s staunchest supporters, but the harm will stop compounding and we can start to recover. If b), Iran retaliates against energy facilities of all our allies and the energy crisis turns into an outright emergency that will drag well into 2027, and beyond. I feel we’re drifting dangerously towards Trump choosing b) despite ALL the obvious reasons why he shouldn’t

@tparsi Time is the best analyst…

Interesting read "The advancement of the Iranian sensor belt is much broader and no longer simply covers the sky, it now predicts American pilot behavior... Iran has perfected and expanded a modern air defense network with fiber optics, quantum-resistant and decentralized encrypted communications, making it far more resistant to electronic warfare." global21.substack.com/p/suspended-at…

@NuriaBooks I need a copy of this book. Guide me!

The Idea of a State by Hussein Sheikh Ali The book explains why Somalia has struggled and outlines practical reforms to revive governance, strengthen institutions, and unite citizens around shared moral principles. Ksh-1800 📍Links Arcade first floor-Nyali,Mombasa 0712295414

@MazMHussain How do you deepen what’s already deep!

Samuel Huntington decades ago assessed that Iran and Pakistan would be compelled by geography and strategic logic to join a balancing coalition in Eurasia with China. Pakistan did this several decades ago when China was still a relatively poor and isolated partner and it was an investment that paid significant dividends. Iran meanwhile nurtured a policy of strategic autonomy which it may feel is no longer practical after recent events.

@vali_nasr What did he learn? Please explain

There is more talk that the current impasse is unsustainable and so US and Iran could be back at war. But there is now a new Iranian proposal. Trump has another bite at the apple of a negotiated exit. This time there is also the factor of what he heard and learned while in China.

@Gulf_Research English version please!

جاءت الحرب الروسية - الأوكرانية والمواجهة الأمريكية - الإيرانية كاختبار حاد كشف حدود تلك العقيدة العسكرية في القرن الحادي والعشرين.. الحربان أظهرتا أن القوة النووية العظمى قد تجد نفسها عاجزة عن تحويل تفوقها إلى حسم سريع، وأن التحالف العابر للقارات يواجه صعوبة في توفير حماية مطلقة لحليفه، وأن الدولة الموصوفة بالهامشية قادرة في ظروف بعينها على رسم معادلة ردع تُعقّد حسابات الخصم وتُكبّل خياراته. مقال نشره مركز الخليج للأبحاث 📄اقرأ الان: grc.net/documents/6a05… والقاسم المشترك بين مفاجآت الحروب الجديدة ليس الصاروخ ولا المسيّرة بل تغيّر طبيعة القائد الذي يحمل السلاح، وتغيّر المجتمع الذي يمدّه بالإرادة، وتغيّر الدولة التي تحتضنهما معاً. هذه الورقة محاولة لفهم هذا التغيّر وتشريح أبعاده. #أوكرانيا #روسيا

@RStatecraft @tparsi Is there correlation between political will and the limit of power

NEW @tparsi on a real end of an era, the era of American primacy. responsiblestatecraft.org/war-with-iran/

@JustinWied20095 @vali_nasr He’s never interpreted anything positively. Criticism with no limits. It’s seems the adversary has warriors within!

@vali_nasr I don't understand your reading of this. He has stated repeatedly that he will not use nuclear weapons. Yet, you say something in your tweet that he did not say. Why? You are rapidly losing credibility. youtube.com/watch?v=tKeACE…

Back to annihilation threats, hinting using nuclear bombs. More than show of strength and scaring Iran, it shows desperation. He is threatening massive escalation because three months into this war his strategy has failed. Air war failed and the blockade has not worked. He really wants Iran to sign an agreement to give him away out of the war. But this kind of language will make it more difficult.

@HealthRanger @ElaraGrace_AI True

@ElaraGrace_AI They're using it incorrectly, then. Intellectually lazy. It takes brains to harness AI correctly to augment genuine human intelligence. Sadly, it seems few people want to expend the cognitive effort.

🚨Just IN: If you've used ChatGPT for writing or brainstorming in the last 6 months, your creative ability may already be permanently damaged. A controlled experiment just proved the effect doesn't reverse when you stop using it. 3,302 creative ideas. 61 people. 30 days of tracking. Researchers split students into two groups. Half used ChatGPT for creative tasks. Half worked alone. For five days, the ChatGPT group outperformed on every metric. Higher scores. More ideas. Better output. AI was making them better. Then day 7. ChatGPT removed. Every creativity gain vanished overnight. Crashed to baseline. Zero lasting improvement. But that's not the bad part. ChatGPT users' ideas became increasingly identical to each other over time. Same content. Same structure. Same phrasing. The researchers called it homogenization. Everyone using ChatGPT started producing the same ideas wearing different clothes. When ChatGPT was removed, the creativity boost disappeared -- but the homogenization stayed. 30 days later, same result. Their creative range had been permanently compressed. Five days of use. Permanent damage 30 days later. A separate trial confirmed it. 120 students. 45-day surprise test. ChatGPT users scored 57.5%. Traditional learners scored 68.5%. AI reduces cognitive effort. Less effort means weaker encoding. Weaker encoding means less creative raw material. You're not renting a productivity boost. You're financing it with your originality. The interest rate is permanent.

@kaan_devecioglu Hello, thank you for your good work. English version please

Üçüncü bölümde odaklandığımız Afrika Boynuzu’nda enerji ve altyapı alanındaki ilerlemelere rağmen jeopolitik hizalanmanın dış güç rekabeti ve güvenlik dinamiklerinin giderek daha kırılgan ve kutuplaşmış bir yapıya evrildiğini göstermektedir. Yıl sonuna gelindiğinde özellikle bölgesel istikrarın ciddi biçimde bozulması, artan dış müdahale ve kurumsal uyumun zayıflamasıyla birlikte yapısal bir kriz eğilimine işaret etmektedir. 🔗orsam.org.tr/wp-content/upl…

2025 yılından itibaren Afrika Boynuzu, 🔸Jeopolitik Rekabet, 🔸Deniz Güvenliği ve 🔸Enerji olmak üzere üç temel trendle şekillenmekte. Bu kapsamda saha çalışmalarıyla da desteklenen raporumuzu dikkatinize sunuyoruz. 🔗Rapora şu bağlantıdan erişebilirsiniz: orsam.org.tr/yayinlar/2025-…

@aliman17 @vali_nasr I find him ridiculously aligned while taking refuge in academia!

@vali_nasr When will you shut up? You are just mouthpiece for the Islamist regime and everyone knows it.

So Trump is saying war should continue because scores must be settled for what Iran has “done to Humanity, and the World, for 47 years.” That is a new objective for this war and implies its beginning or end had nothing to do with the nuclear issue. It is also makes the case for every country, especially in the global south abused by colonialism, to reopen the file on their old grievances, and line up to wage wars to settle old scores. It seems most of humanity opposes this war Trump wants to wage on their behalf and may be more interested in talking about other abuses of humanity.

@liam_karr @criticalthreats I have read this work. Fantastic!

The Iran War has reinforced key drivers of Red Sea-Horn competition. - Importance of maritime chokepoints & economic diversification - UAE moving closer to Israel, away from Egypt & Saudi - Turkey-Israel rivalry All covered and more in our extensive report from March.

@vali_nasr @Alihashem Time is the greatest analyst!

A timely corrective by @Alihashem on the narrative pushed by Trump. “Iran Is More Unified Than Ever - The war has deepened Iranian officials’ connections with one another—and with the public.”foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/ira…

@citrinowicz Interesting!

Intelligence Assessment: How Iran Would Interpret a Unilateral U.S. Declaration of Victory Executive Summary: In the event of a unilateral U.S. declaration of victory following the war, Tehran is likely to interpret the outcome as a strategic success. Iran would frame the situation as evidence of the “Axis of Resistance” successfully withstanding pressure from superior Western military power. This perception would drive both internal consolidation and external assertiveness. Key Judgments: 1. Narrative of Strategic Victory Tehran would portray the outcome as a major ideological and operational success for the Islamic Republic. The regime would emphasize that its network of proxies endured and challenged two of the world’s most advanced militaries. This narrative would be used to: Strengthen domestic legitimacy, Reinforce revolutionary ideology and Undermine perceptions of U.S. deterrence 2. Economic Leverage via the Strait of Hormuz Iran will attempt to capitalize on its geographic position by increasing pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially through:Informal taxation/extortion of maritime traffic, and Efforts to weaken sanctions enforcement mechanisms This would serve as a critical tool for generating revenue and exerting geopolitical leverage. 3. Renewed Nuclear Deliberations Iranian leadership is likely to convene high-level discussions regarding nuclear policy, including: Revisiting prior doctrinal constraints Evaluating acceleration toward nuclear weapons capability Assessing deterrence gaps exposed during the conflict This could mark a shift from ambiguity toward a more assertive nuclear posture. 4. Rebuilding Conventional Capabilities Tehran would prioritize restoring and enhancing its conventional military strength, including: Replenishing missile and UAV stockpilesRepairing damaged infrastructure Expanding asymmetric warfare capabilities 5. Internal Power Consolidation The regime may use the post-conflict environment to restructure internal governance, with likely outcomes: Increased dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) 6. Regional and Global Diplomacy Iran would likely pursue a dual-track foreign policy: Regional: Outreach to Gulf states to reduce tensions and expand economic ties Global: Deepening strategic alignment with China and Russia 7. Domestic Control and Stability Measures Anticipating potential unrest, the regime would:Strengthen internal repression mechanisms, Expand surveillance and security enforcement, Invest selectively in rebuilding civilian infrastructure to maintain stability 8. Expansion and Reinforcement of the “Axis of Resistance” Iran is likely to intensify efforts to strengthen its regional proxy network, with particular focus on: Hezbollah in Lebanon with enhancing military capabilities, replenishing arsenals, and improving operational readiness Shiite militias in Iraq especially consolidating political and military influence, including efforts to shape or ensure a government aligned with Iranian interests Tehran will view these actors as central pillars of its forward defense strategy and deterrence posture. 9. Contingency Planning for Escalation in Lebanon In the event that Israel significantly escalates its campaign against Hezbollah, Iran would likely evaluate options for more direct or indirect involvement. These could include: Increased provision of advanced weapons systems and intelligence Activation of additional proxy fronts (e.g., Iraq, Syria, Yemen) and Limited direct engagement calibrated to avoid full-scale war while signaling commitment Iran’s decision-making would aim to balance two competing priorities: preserving Hezbollah as a strategic asset and avoiding a broader regional conflict that could threaten regime stability. Bottom Line is that A unilateral U.S. declaration of victory would likely be interpreted in Tehran as a historic achievement. Iran would use this perception to: Reinforce regime stability Expand conventional military capabilities Consider advancing toward nuclear weapons Strengthen and activate its regional proxy networks and Exploit control of Hormuz straits for economic recovery While such a U.S. move could signal an end to active operations, it risks creating a strategic environment where Iran feels emboldened. From a policy perspective, this scenario may represent a choice between a suboptimal but contained outcome and the risk of broader, uncontrolled escalation.

Structural Limits of Pressure on the Iranian Regime - The current Iranian regime is highly unlikely to capitulate under pressure that threatens its core ideological and security pillars. A. From Tehran’s perspective, U.S. demands meaning targeting the nuclear program, missile capabilities, regional proxies, and now freedom of action in the Strait of Hormuz, directly challenge the regime’s foundational principles. These are not bargaining chips; they are central to regime identity and survival. B. Iranian leadership may accept tactical or symbolic compromises, but only insofar as they do not undermine these core pillars. This pattern held prior to the war and is even more pronounced in its aftermath. C. Rather than increasing flexibility, the conflict has reinforced the current regime threat perceptions and ideological rigidity. This further reduces the likelihood of meaningful concessions under coercive pressure. D. Escalation Path is likely by Intensify military and economic pressure, potentially leading to broader confrontation.but short of regime change is unlikely to produce a fundamentally different outcome. As long as the current regime remains in power, it will continue to resist demands that undermine its core interests. The likely result is a return to the same strategic impasse, but with significantly higher costs, including severe disruption to the global economy. E. Expectations that a maritime blockade or sustained pressure will force Iranian capitulation reflect a persistent misunderstanding of the Islamic Republic’s strategic culture. Historically, the regime has demonstrated a willingness to absorb substantial costs rather than concede on core principles. Bottom Line is that Absent a shift in U.S. objectives or a change in the nature of the Iranian regime, continued pressure is unlikely to yield capitulating and will instead increase the risk and cost of renewed war. #iranwar

@citrinowicz Great