@joshua_landis But Jake Sullivan is an example of a supreme a$$hole and a moron.
What kind of idiot would believe that Iran would make deal that would prevent it from achieving a bomb?
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Ed Givelberg
7.3K posts
Ed Givelberg
@EdGivelberg
Mathematician. Interested in physics. Wasting time on lots of other things.
Katılım Mayıs 2015
305 Takip Edilen127 Takipçiler
Jake Sullivan is the 10th guy to say that Trump had a deal with Iran in Oman that would have guaranteed that Iran never got a nuclear bomb.
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara
BOMBSHELL: Jake Sullivan reveals that just days before the US started bombing Iran, Tehran put a massive peace proposal on the table in Geneva. The US negotiators "simply didn't understand what they were being offered" and bombed them anyway!
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
Soldiers now deployed in Belgium to protect Jews from Muslims.
Let that sink in.
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
Iranian Exile Explains What’s Really Happening, on CNN. WOW!
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
ב"משטרה" הפלסטינית יש 60 אלף איש!
במשטרת ישראל 30 אלף.
באוגדה בצה"ל יש בערך 10-20 אלף איש. (תלוי באוגדה). אנחנו נלחמים עם 5 אוגדות.
אם לא נחסל את צבא הטרור הזה הוא יחסל אלפים מאיתנו.
זה לא שאלה אם, זו רק שאלה של מתי.
עברית
@joshua_landis Again, the idiotic narrative about the impossibility of a military solution....
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Will Lebanon be another quagmire for Israel? Or will it achieve its goal of destroying Hezbollah and possibly extending its border.
The Economist@TheEconomist
Israel’s government is “selling the public a dangerous illusion: that military force alone can dismantle Hizbullah”, says a former Israeli military commander in a guest essay. “Exercising force without a strategy is not victory. It is political failure” economist.com/by-invitation/…
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@vindheim @joshua_landis Yes, the next stop would be the Zaharani river.
Islamic fanatics should be pushed out further,
perhaps all the way to Holland.
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It is worth noting that when Chaim Weizmann and David Ben-Gurion attended the 1919 Paris Peace Conference ending World War I, they presented a map containing the boundaries of their hoped-for Jewish state. The map included what is now Lebanon’s Litani River
Maha Yahya@mahamyahya
#Israel announces the official beginning of its ground invasion of #Lebanon - seeks now to depopulate the entire area south of the Litani river- or 10% of #Lebanese territory & home to some 300,000 - 400,000 people spread over more than 150 villages and towns.
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@joshua_landis They are not "worried".
They are in line to be beheaded.
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Demonstrators in Damascus against alcohol restrictions argue that liquor is only the tip of the iceberg. It represents the first line of defense for personal and public freedoms. Artists and secular Syrians worry that freedoms of speech and assembly will be attacked next.
“This is not about whether we want to drink alcohol, this is about personal freedom,” said Isa Qazah, a 45-year-old sculptor from the area who joined the protest along the medieval stone lanes near Damascus’ Old City. “We have come here to defend an idea.”
Abby Sewell@sewella
Syrian authorities' new limits on alcohol sales in Damascus spark backlash apnews.com/article/syria-…
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@sentdefender Unfollowed.
The people threatened with complete annihilation by Iran do not owe Iranian people anything.
Israel should not risk its fate to spare Iranian suffering.
A complete collapse of Iran will be a good outcome,
just like the collapse of Nazi Germany was.
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No way! Israel, who clearly is not aligned with the operational objectives of the United States and instead wants a “failed state” and the total destruction of Iran, supports strikes against Iranian power plants which will ultimately result in the suffering of the Iranian people as well as mass attacks against, not Israel, but energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf States. What a surprise!
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Israel is interested in a wide-scale attacks on Iran’s energy facilities and supports the recent 48-hour ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald J. Trump, according to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation.
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
@Cattletech @DanielBachmat @BBlwmnqrnz @BittonRosen ההסתברויות שמפורסמות הן סיכום של פעילות מבצעית.
מאד ייתכן שאפשר לשפר ביצועים,
ואכן היו כבר שיפורים ששינו את ה״הסתברויות״.
עברית
עברית
לאחר שני האירועים הקשים בדרום ארצנו, בצה״ל מסרבים להסביר לציבור איך קרה שתוך שעות בודדות 2 טילים בליסטיים כמעט גרמו לאסון לאומי בעורף, ומגדירים זאת ״טעות סטטיסטית״.
הגנה אווירית עם 92%, שבזמן קצר לא מצליחה ליירט באזורים סמוכים שני איומים, זה הרבה מעבר לטעות סטטיסטית, זה לכל הפחות כשל מקצועי או טכני משמעותי שנדרש לתחקר.
אבל אולי חיי תושבי הדרום פחות חשובים לאותם קצינים שמתדרכים בעילום שם, ומסרבים לתת תשובות גם לשאלות קשות שמחובתם לספק.
עברית
@DanielBachmat @BBlwmnqrnz @BittonRosen חביבי, אתה התחלת לדבר עלי אישית וזה די דבילי.
תבין, יש אנשים שיודעים יותר מתימטיקה ממך.
אני נהנה מהדברים שאתה כותב על מערכות נשק כי אני לא מתכוון ללמוד את התחום.
כתבים אולי לא מבינים הסתברות אבל ההתנשאות שלך אינה במקום.
עברית
@EdGivelberg @BBlwmnqrnz @BittonRosen אתה אפילו לא יודע את ההבדל בין הסתברות כמידה פיזיקלית לשכיחות לבין הסתברות כמידה לאי-ודאות אפיסטמית. תרצה שאשלח לך ספרות בנושא?
עברית
עברית
עברית
@DanielBachmat @BBlwmnqrnz @BittonRosen הטעויות הגדולות ביותר תמיד נעשות ביישום של תורת ההסתברות למצבים פיסיקליים ולא בחישובים מתמטיים.
הטעות כאן היא כולה שלך.
האחוזים ביירוט הם לא חוק טבע.
ברנולי סבבה, ישן על הצד.
עברית
@BBlwmnqrnz @BittonRosen ההסבר לסמיכות של הפגיעות במקום ובזמן היא כמובן העובדה שהאיראנים יורים בסמיכות במקום ובזמן.
וכמובן שכל החטאה וגם כל הצלחה צריך לתחקר. זו למידה. אבל הלל לא טוען את זה, הוא טוען שכשהצבא אומר שזו המסקנה מהתחקיר אז הוא מחרטט בגלל חוסר סבירות סטטיסטית.
עברית
@joshua_landis Hezbollah is in Lebanese parliament.
Why should people in N. Lebanon have electricity when Hezbollah fires into northern Israel?
N. Lebanon will also become Gaza.
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
Most people will probably miss that this chart is log scale
Meaning it shows a 10,000X reduction in cost
This is quite literally insane. Engineering is magic.
X Freeze@XFreeze
It’s actually insane what SpaceX is doing to the space industry right now In 1981, it cost ~$65,000 to put 1 kg into orbit For 50 years, the industry accepted this as the standard. Reusable rockets were "impossible" Then one company - led by a man obsessed with getting humanity to Mars, decided that $65,000/kg was unacceptable Right now, Elon and the SpaceX team are building Starship to hit $10–$20/kg That is a massive ~4,000x price collapse It’s actually wild that we get to watch this happen in real time
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
ככל שישראל מכה יותר ויותר באיראן
פיד קפלן מתחרפן יותר.
אתם רואים ניצחון במלחמה
הם רואים הפסד בבחירות
שבוע טוב🙏
עברית
@joshua_landis @NickKristof Expert!
NYT!
who would have thunk....
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Linda Bilmes, a Harvard expert on financing war, expects this Iran war to cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion. "Most of the costs will arrive later."
By @NickKristof
For a bit more than two weeks of this war, we could offer free college education to every American family earning less than $125,000 annually, at a cost of around $30 billion a year.
If we reallocated this war spending to needs at home and abroad, Americans would have access to school from pre-K to college and would have health insurance, and large numbers of children worldwide would not starve to death — and we would still have billions of dollars left over.
Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free without a subscription.
nytimes.com/2026/03/21/opi…
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Ed Givelberg retweetledi
“Decapitation strikes don’t work,” they say. “The strategy isn’t working,” they say after 5, 10, or 20 days.
Strategic effects are cumulative. Impatience is not analysis.
Let's review just what Israel has stuck in Iran according to @IDF 🧵
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