Eirik

@CRUDEOIL231 Does this include the ramp up time? I know people were talking about 1b barrels including ramp up but that was with Hormuz open before may.

Just a reminder in case you forgot: despite all the bullshit on Axios and Truth Social, massive production losses are piling up in the Persian Gulf. Considering the logistical delays to restart production, I have no idea how huge the final loss will actually be. It’s absolutely insane. Meaningless time passing and things becoming deadlocked is the best gift of all. Let's just let time do the work :) #oott #iran

@kogasman WTI is >100$ so there will probably be some news before the weekend…

@EirikFPS Hard for me to imagine this meeting doing anything meaningful to alter oil market… He’ll probably say China agreed to buy more energy from us. Ermm dur.

God forbid market is being prudent and taking profits while they can before China meeting

@kogasman He deleted it. What was it?

What…??

@CRUDEOIL231 @apickledherring What about saudi, if they also want to join the war? Would they leave as well? Won’t really be any more opec if they leave.

@apickledherring I think so

@CRUDEOIL231 Thanks for responding. So what you’re saying is the threat of friction with other OPEC members from openly allying with US/ISR makes it necessary to leave cartel?

@UnintendedCons5 Long oil is logically a good play, but at what time is it good to start shorting spy? Do we have to see the recession first or is just buying a long dated otm put good enough if you’re unsure about timing?

I would call that below operating minimum.

@sirmoco @CRUDEOIL231 True, even if all were vlcc and we had 8mbbls more in the market, production wouldn’t start so shut ins are the same. Just wanted to know if people talk about other ships that don’t carry liquids when they basically don’t matter at all.

@EirikFPS @CRUDEOIL231 If it was only 4 or 4, it doesn't really matter what they were carrying tbh.

I have come to realize i was wrong. Looking at various data sources, the number of vessels transiting the SoH today—the very start of the 'ceasefire'—actually seems lower than before the truce began. I’ve realized this 'ceasefire' is truly a beautiful thing. I am now all for 365 days of this 'ceasefire'. I invite you all to join me on this path toward peace. After all inertia is hard to break, and hope is a wonderful thing, isn't it? #oott #iran

@DidrikRommen Contango på veldig lenge.

@DidrikRommen Skal aldri gjøre feilen med å ikke ha energisikkerhet. Bare se på India feks, de har null. De blir nødt til å bygge ut enorme mengder lagre fremover. Når alle skal gjøre dette samtidig blir det en enorm boost i etterspørsel og deretter pris. Klarer ikke å se for meg oljen i

@CRUDEOIL231 @sirmoco But how many of them crude, lng or lpg?

@sirmoco 4 or 5

@AnthonyGriz @CRUDEOIL231 @undercoverMike7 @calvinfroedge He already did but i think he deleted it

@CRUDEOIL231 @undercoverMike7 @calvinfroedge But you were going to post the P&L of the oil trades? Yeah OK..

I would like to thank everyone who has responded with ridicule instead of reasonable counterarguments. I see there’s no point in honestly posting my P/L after the ceasefire. However it’s quite a unique experience to be mocked by people managing $30k accounts when I’ve lost $2M after making $15M. I won’t stop you though; I guess that’s just how it goes. At the end of the day, even as we argue right now over 10mb/d of production remains offline and that’s all that matters. I’ve done all my oil trades through derivatives this year, but today was the first time I actually added oil equities. Physics will do its job anyway. Guys, I’m just a humble trader. There’s no need to waste your time and energy mocking me. Just go about your business.

@ALikhodedov Have you looked at AKERBP?

@EirikFPS yes, I looked at VAR - will buy it if there is TACO and a selloff ....

Does anyone have recent research (this year, even if pre-war) on DNO ASA? Here is who covers them ... Thanks in advance ...

@ALikhodedov Is a shit company too focused on renewables instead of actual growth. Could be a potential for an ORSTED merger but other than that I wouldn’t touch it, only AKERBP and VAR.

@ALikhodedov Thanks! I have to say OKEA’s management is kinda shit but it think they still have the biggest potential in 1-2 years. From the bigger, I think AKERBP is the best company. They are more exposed to oil and have Yggdrasil coming up. EQUINOR and VAR ENERGI are more gas but Equinor

@ALikhodedov Yeh sorry I used to have access to a lot of the Nordic research before but not anymore… Can I ask why you are looking at DNO specifically? I prefer OKEA of the producers from Norway. Increase in production, decrease in capex and restarting dividends at the start of 2027.

@EirikFPS Thanks a lot ... I was hoping to find something DNO-specific- to x-check the financial model that I built with Claude:). Was only able to find Sundal Collier one ...

@AlexanderKim120 Thanks will read soon. I’m very concerned about the quality of the labour data. They keep revising down the data which ruins the ability of the central banks to act correctly and in a timely manner.

@EirikFPS pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr… it is flash version but I guess now it explains a lot of situation, even if the data collected were relatively optimisitic than now

Nonono this is insane today’s rates market. It is not an adequate timing to price in recession. And heard FED can do surprise cut.. haha funny. Let them figure it out how inflation gonna be impacted. So I shrink this position.

@AlexanderKim120 Great answer, thanks!

It is a complex matter. In truth, I lack absolute certainty myself. However, I hold one singular conviction: if the Fed remains focused on both P (Inflation) and Q (the Labour Market) simultaneously, they will remain vigilant regarding inflation until they see a marked deterioration in current unemployment rates and payroll data. This stance will immediately permeate market pricing. If they maintain a hawkish position for the time being—with short-term rates pricing in the probability of a hike and Treasury yields remaining elevated across the board—that in itself fosters a 'restrictive' environment. Yet, prices are in constant flux. They will continue to shift depending on the developments of the conflict in Iran. Should the conflict persist and manifest in the upcoming CPI prints, the Fed can effectively telegraph a restrictive message to the economy simply by maintaining a hawkish tone regarding a potential pivot. I believe they will continue to adhere to this approach. In other words, as you suggested, they will likely hold rates steady while undoubtedly shifting their tone. Furthermore, this situation necessitates an analysis of economic dynamics over a longer horizon. A 'wait and see' approach might prove effective if the impact is limited to a temporary rise in energy prices. However, if we witness supplier-led demand destruction alongside an inevitable and sharp price reaction globally—not only in the US but across Asia and Europe—I believe they will be forced to concede to a monetary policy path unlike any seen in recent years; one where hikes, pauses, and cuts occur within a significantly compressed timeframe.

@AlexanderKim120 Thank you. It’s of course impossible to know but if you were to speculate, what will be their main priority going forward? I like to think they keep the rates where it’s at for a while and then simply see through the inflation. Then eventually cut when the economy weakens.

Please do bear in mind that, as a market participant, my perspective may be somewhat coloured by optimism. Taking as objective a view as possible, central banks must buy themselves more time. They ought to leverage every available resource and network to ensure they are receiving real-time data on both price and quantity. Furthermore, there must be far more explicit communication with the government; even if they are not privy to the entirety of the forthcoming policy package, they must be briefed on the intended channels and mechanisms of its implementation. Whilst doing so, they must keep all options firmly on the table—whether that be a hike, a hold, or a cut. To some, this may appear indecisive or even incompetent. However, if they are to be prudent rather than making erratic tactical shifts, they need to play for time for at least the next one or two meetings. Once the situation clarifies, they must signal their intent in a decisive manner—much like the 75bps hike communication via the WSJ—notwithstanding the traditional blackout periods of the modern central banking system. As the gravity of the situation becomes more pronounced, there is a vital need for signalling that they are prepared to grant exceptions to the very mechanisms that usually constrain them.