ElectionCord

NEW ARTICLE: We went over five of our 100K Districts in Texas, and explained how they (and areas like them) could decide how the Texas Senate Democratic Primary will go. LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate-d…

Emerson has a pretty interesting result: Only a Trump disapproval of -10, but also a generic ballot of D+8. Usually on polls, there is a bigger gap between the Trump approval and generic ballot, in other words, polls usually indicate that a lot of Trump haters might also vote R.

The Crystal Ball moves a bunch of forecasts towards Dems.

Other well-known pollsters that are actually schools (with D1 Athletics): Marist (MAAC) Quinnipiac (MAAC) Please rename MAAC to the NEPC (Northeast Polling Conference)

Link to the Tabula America Index: electioncord.com/demographics/

Here's Chicagoland, using our 100K Districts and the Tabula America Index. Some notable features include the "Southside", a majority-black area, the more educated and white northernside, and pockets of Hispanic and non-educated white areas in the western side of the metro.

As someone else said, it's like saying Trump has 100% approval with people who approve of Trump

MAGA GOP is Trump, that's the issue with this viewpoint. If you are looking for signs that people that previously supported Trump don't anymore, use Trump 2024 voters, Republicans, or people that voted for Trump before 2024...

VoteHub projects Juliana Stratton to win the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

WinCast: Stratton is now favored.

We got a bunch of primaries tomorrow! Join our Discord, and stay up to date on everything that's happening. We will (hopefully) also be in VC, following the results live. LINK: discord.gg/6NNkjgg4qJ

With March Madness coming up, a personal interest of mine has been re-organizing college sports into conferences that... actually make sense. So I took 96 locations around the US based on population, and divided them into 12 conferences of 8 teams. Link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

After next week's Illinois primaries, the major upcoming elections are... Apr 7: WI Supreme Court Apr 16: NJ-11 special Apr 21: VA redistricting amendment May 5: IN, OH primaries May 12: NE, WV primaries May 19: AL, GA, ID, KY, OR, PA primaries May 26: TX primary runoffs

@the_transit_guy I was on the road all day from Fl*rida to South Carolina, and there was so much traffic/construction I've never felt more justified in wanting some nice public high speed transit

Glad we built an entire country around a single product.

It's been about 2 weeks since the start of the war in Iran. 7 polls have asked about whether people oppose or support the war, and 50% oppose it, while 39% support it. So far, seems to be an issue that isn't completely toxic for Trump, but the longer it goes on, I suspect it will poll worse.

@ElliscbIV Nice flex

OMG

Per the new Marist poll today, Democrats hold a 9% edge on the generic ballot, but one thing caught my eye: White College Educated Women overwhelmingly support Democrats (+31%) while White Non-College Educated Women overwhelmingly support Republicans (-17%).

Pretty big overperformance for Democrat Shawn Harris in GA-14 (MTG's old district), where he got 37.3% of the vote, and actually is in first place. Although he's very unlikely to win since it's going to go to a run-off, it's a good sign for Democrats in GA. Of special note is Whitfield County, a 35% Hispanic county that voted for Trump by over 40% in 2024, YET went to the Democrat Harris by just over 5% in the first round. LINK to results: nytimes.com/interactive/20…