Giants #1 Fan

Tyler Loop surrounded by Giants fans:

@MarioNawfal Malcom Nance. lol 🤡

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran is playing a high-stakes game of chicken in the Strait of Hormuz. Fmr U.S. Navy specialist Malcolm Nance notes that while "Project Freedom" started as a vague coordination effort, it has quickly spiraled into missile fire and disputed claims of a warship strike. Nance suggests that despite the shifted rules of engagement allowing strikes on Iranian soil, both sides are currently signaling a tentative step back from the brink. "This is a much higher war risk than it was 12 hours ago." @MalcolmNance

@WhiteHouse Why stop there?

In a galaxy that demands strength - America stands ready. This is the way. May the 4th be with you.

@MEC_Tracker x.com/zerohedge/stat…

🚨 A ship has been struck off the coast of Dubai

@MarioNawfal Iranian navy "enforcing."

🇮🇷🇦🇪 Iran just dropped a new map literally redrawing control over the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy announced a control zone stretching from Mount Mubarak to Fujairah on the east, and Kashmir Island to Umm Al Quwain on the west. The problem: that boundary cuts into UAE territorial waters. Fujairah is the UAE's escape hatch. It's the port they use to export oil without going through the Strait. Iran's new map makes that route fall inside their claimed zone. If enforced, the UAE can’t bypass the Strait. Tehran would effectively control both the main chokepoint AND the workaround. Massive power grab… Source: Al Jazeera

@King0ftheCharts Great post, Ron!

. The Coming 2026 Oil Shock — The 2008 Warning Signs Are Flashing on the S&P 500 The oil shock is unfolding as crude soars. The fact that stocks are shrugging it off doesn’t mean it’s harmless — it means we’re still in the complacency window that often precedes the real fallout (just like early/mid-2008). Traders are in Temporary Denial: The shock is in the surge. The stock market’s current resilience is temporary denial, not a new paradigm. History shows it rarely ends well when oil shocks hit an already stretched system. The higher and longer oil stays elevated, the more it validates the bearish setup on the S&P monthly chart as described below. Oil is surging hard on geopolitical headlines, and the crowd is losing their minds, drowning in complacency, absolutely convinced this never-ending stock market rally simply won’t end. It happens at every top. Let’s get something straight with cold, hard history: oil shocks don’t start the real pain, they deliver the final blow to an economy already cracking. The 2008 Oil Shock & the S&P 500: Look at 2008 • The stock market peaked in October 2007. • The recession had already begun by December 2007. • Oil kept climbing anyway and didn’t top out until July 2008 at ~$147. By the time the Fed panicked in January 2008 and started aggressive jumbo rate cuts, the S&P was already down ~20% from its highs. The damage to the the economy had already been done and the stock market was starting to price that in. Those big cuts couldn’t stop the bear market. Oil continued to surged, but eventually crashed hard in the economic downturn, but the real economic damage had already been done. The oil shock was the exclamation point, not the starting gun. Eventually, deflationary forces took over during the recession and both crude oil and inflation crashed, but it was too late, the damage had already been done. This Wasn't a One-off 1970s Oil Shock — The Oil Embargo of 1973 & 1974: The 1970s oil crises (1973 embargo and 1979 Iranian Revolution) triggered stagflation and brutal stock market selloffs. • OPEC Oil Embargo: Announced October 17–19, 1973 (in response to the Yom Kippur War), with major effects unfolding into early 1974. • The stock market decline began before the 1973 oil embargo. • S&P 500 peak: January 11, 1973 (the bear market started from here). • 1973–1974 bear market: Ran from January 1973 to October/December 1974, with the S&P 500 eventually falling nearly ~50% • March 1974: The oil embargo ends but oil prices stay relative high for a long time. Once the embargo ended, the S&P 500 got the next leg down of the bear market, in what is common know as the 73-74 crash. The Oil Embargo of 1973-1974 is a Perfect Example of the Oil Shock Pattern: Stocks rolled over first . The oil shock hit later and made everything much worse. The real bottom came after the embargo ended. It reinforces my overall thesis: the oil surge is the accelerant, not the original cause. The market was already vulnerable. The embargo resulted with oil price quadrupling, compounded and accelerated the stock market downturn, turning a bad bear market into one of the worst since the Great Depression. This resulted in the stagflation era of the 1970s. The 1990s Gulf War and Oil Shock: The early 1990s Gulf War oil spike is another clear example. Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, causing oil prices to surge from ~$17 to over $40 per barrel in just a few months. Stocks had already begun weakening earlier in 1990, and the S&P 500 peaked in July 1990 — before the invasion. The oil shock accelerated the downturn, helping push the U.S. into the 1990–1991 recession, and the market sold off sharply (S&P 500 dropped ~20% peak-to-trough). Once the war ended quickly in early 1991, oil prices collapsed back down, but the economic damage and bear market had already played out.This is the exact pattern again: stocks rolled over first, the oil shock hit as the accelerator, and the real pain was already baked in. Every major oil shock in modern history — 1970s, 1990s, 2008 — hit an already weakening system and led to major stock market damage. The pattern is brutally consistent: stocks roll over first, the economy weakens, oil delivers the emotional top, then reality crashes through. This Time will be no Different: We’re watching the same scenario setup: risk assets are at risk of rolling over while oil climbs. Once the stock market starts to collapse, the Fed will take aggressive steps to ease. That will confirm the recession. The final oil spike is coming as confirmation, not cause. The damage is already in motion. The crash in oil comes later — after the real pain has hit. Don’t confuse the symptom for the disease. History is screaming the truth. Ignore it at your own risk. S&P 500 Monthly Chart Warning Signs of a 2026 Oil Shock The S&P 500 is now sitting at major monthly trendline of resistance, forming a massive rising wedge that connects the January 2022 high, the October 2025 swing, and the current price level. At the same time, we’re seeing multiple clear bearish divergences on the RSI, Rate of Change (ROC), and Price Oscillator — classic warning signs that momentum is fading even as price grinds higher. This euphoria is not the start of a new leg up — it’s textbook topping behavior and part of the S&P 500 crash process. Just like 2008, when oil kept rising into its final blow-off top while the stock market had already peaked months earlier, inflation was climbing, the subprime mortgage crisis was exploding, and the entire system was rolling over into the full financial crisis. The higher oil goes from here, the more it confirms the damage is already underway. . #Crudeoil #oil $USO #war #Iran #Trump $SPY #straightofhormuz $SPX #SP500 $NDX $QQQ #NASDAQ100 $NQ #stockmarketcrash $DJIA $DJI $IWM $RUT $VIX $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin $BTCUSD #BTCUSD

@DrProfitCrypto Great post! Thank you.

Why the Stock Market Is Going to Crash: Part 1: What the 1973 Oil Crisis Teaches Us: The Big Sunday Report: Back in 1973, about 5–7% of the world's oil demand was cut off for roughly 5 months, and the consequences led to the worst crash in history since the Great Depression! Today, around 20% of the WORLD'S OIL DEMAND has been affected for 2 months, and there's no end in sight. This means the situation today is even worse than it was during the 1973 oil crisis, and yet most don't understand the pattern! This brings me to the question of how the $SPX (SP500) behaved then, and we need to compare it with now. In 1973, the #SPX crashed 20% as in October 1973 the Oil Embargo was announced. During that time, the S&P 500 was 7% away from its ATH, recovering from an earlier 17% correction, and the market was in strong euphoria believing in the next rally. Investors thought the worst was over, and out of the sudden the embargo hit the market and we saw a sharp drop of 20% that followed in October 1973. The same we saw in March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the S&P 500 reacted with a 10% downside move. This is what I call the first shockwave, but what if I tell you that the real, and much worse downside move happened after the announcement of the end of the oil embargo was made ? The oil embargo officially ended on March 17, 1974. This is when the real crash began, and the S&P 500 crashed 40% within the next 6 months! This was the worst crash since the Great Depression, and only 2008 was worse. The crash didn't happen during the embargo. It happened after the embargo was lifted, when everyone assumed things were going back to normal. The damage to the economy, the inflation, the higher input costs, the broken consumer, had already been done, and the market understood the damage and we see it today as well, as the parallel today is direct. The S&P 500 is making new highs while an oil supply shock is unfolding. Investors are doing exactly what they did in 1973: assuming the issue will resolve and pricing in a soft landing. But once the economic damage becomes visible in earnings and consumer spending, the same delayed reaction is likely to play out, and this is exactly what was addressed by Jerome Powell in the most recent FOMC meeting! Inflation is rising again, the FED can't ease anymore! Part 2: The Private Credit and Banking Risk: There's a type of investment fund called a private credit fund. These funds lend money to large companies, working a lot like hedge funds. The problem is that they borrow huge amounts of money themselves to make bigger loans and bigger profits. This is called leverage, and it's a double edged sword. When things go well, profits are programmed, but when things go badly, losses are programmed too. The situation right now is alarming. Investors are pulling their money out at a record pace, with over $7 billion withdrawn from major private credit funds in late 2025. BlackRock has even blocked some investors from withdrawing money. Loan defaults are at record highs as well, with 5.8% of private credit loans in default as of January 2026, the highest level ever recorded! About 40% of the companies that borrowed from these funds are now burning more cash than they earn, and the stock market is starting to notice, with shares of big private equity and credit firms falling sharply. If these funds collapse, banks go down with them, because banks lent them much of the money in the first place. So what happens if banks fail? Since the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S. and the 2014 EU bank rescue rules, governments are no longer supposed to bail out failing banks with taxpayer money. Instead, they use something called a bail-in. They take money from depositors and bondholders and turn it into bank shares. The result is that bank stocks crash and ordinary people lose part of their savings. This is why physical gold and silver are the only real safe haven. I consider owning them a MUST. The Main Warning Signs The first and most important is oil. In 1973, oil first moved up, and the stock market crash came after the Arab nations reopened oil supply. The damage was already done. What we're seeing now in the S&P 500 looks like the final push higher before the expected crash. History is repeating itself. The second is the yield curve inversion. This happens when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates, which is a clear warning sign. It has come before every U.S. recession in the past 50+ years, usually 12 to 24 months in advance. Back in 2025, I wrote a full report pointing to June 2026 as the likely crash zone, and the report was written in September 2025 and can be found here: x.com/DrProfitCrypto… The third is insider selling at record speed. Company executives and big shareholders have been dumping their own stock at a pace never seen before, especially since August–September 2025. When insiders are selling this aggressively, it tells you everything you need to know and thats something I observe since many months! The fourth is extreme risk appetite, and right now it's at its highest point since 2021. In simple words, risk appetite means how much investors are willing to bet on risky things like stocks instead of keeping their money safe. Right now, investors are throwing money into risky assets like never before. According to EPFR fund flow data, risky assets have seen record net inflows exceeding safe assets by 220bn over the last 4 weeks, the strongest since the 2021 meme-stock peak. To put it simply, people are pouring much more money into stocks than into safe places, and the gap is the biggest we've seen in years. This also aligns with updates to S&P Global's Investment Manager Index risk appetite gauge and Goldman's proprietary RAI, both hitting multi-year highs. This is the same type of euphoria we saw right before the 2021 top, and history shows that when everyone is greedy and chasing the market at the same time, the top is usually very close and this is the moment when risk appetite is this extreme, it's a clear warning sign, and trust me, you dont want to be among the losers who bought the top! The 1929 Parallel: Why You Need to Study the Great Depression Study the Great Depression of 1929, and I can't repeat it often enough. Study it, you need to study 1929! You will notice many similarities. The people who owned physical gold and silver back then were the big winners. Land was sold for even one penny because there was no liquidity at all. Farmers had tons of wheat but there was no one able to buy it. The US President Herbert Hoover famously said right before the great depression, "Prosperity is just around the corner," talking about the stock market and its bullish movements and claiming that nothing could stop the upside move. Everyone in the US was invested in stocks back then, the same as today, as record amounts of retail investors are sitting on stocks currently, the highest amount of retails ever recorded. Now, a hundred years later, we have another president talking about the stock market like no one else. Trump is talking about being tired of winning, or calling it the best economy ever based on the stock market, and ignoring the real economy that is suffering and has no liquidity to breathe currently. I see tons of similarities, and I am scared to even speak it out, but my biggest concern is a repeat of the Great Depression. I am not a doomsday caller, but I am here to remind you that physical gold and silver are more important than ever, no matter what the price says. My Trade and My Targets Let me be clear about where I stand. I am not just talking, I am positioned. I have shorted the S&P 500 at 6400, 6700, 6900, and 7100, and my final order remains open in the 7400 region if the market gives us that opportunity. In my view, we are deep inside top territory, and I am placing my shorts right here, right now, for every single reason laid out above. The signs are everywhere. Spotting the top is not the hard part, anyone paying attention can see it. The hard part is pinpointing the exact target on the way down, because that depends entirely on one thing: will the FED print again? And the answer that history teached us is simple. The FED only starts to print once a crisis hits, and now lets ask the same for 2008, where the FED wasnt able to print more money, and the Lehman crisis and the 2008 crash started and how likely is it in the current time ? In 2008, the FED did not intervene to save Lehman Brothers. Everyone expected a rescue, everyone assumed the FED would step in like it did with Bear Stearns just months earlier. But the FED let Lehman fail, the bank went bankrupt, and the entire financial system nearly collapsed with it. That single decision changed everything. It triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it is the exact reason the bail-in laws I mentioned earlier even exist today. Dodd Frank in the US and the EU bank rescue rules were both born directly out of the chaos of 2008, designed so that taxpayers would never again foot the bill. Next time, depositors and bondholders pay, and this is where the real risk hits the ordinary person. In simple words, if your bank fails, the government will not save it with taxpayer money like in 2008. Instead, the bank takes a part of your savings, anything sitting in your account, and converts it into worthless bank shares of the failing bank. Your money is gone, replaced by stock in a bank that just collapsed. In the EU, deposits up to €100,000 are technically protected by deposit insurance, and in the U.S. up to $250,000 by the FDIC, but anything above that is fair game, and history has already shown us this is not theory. It happened in Cyprus in 2013, where depositors lost a huge chunk of their savings overnight, and this will let the fire of the crash expand. So for my targets, I see three realistic scenarios, and they all depend on the FED: Scenario 1: The FED panics and prints again. If inflation cools enough to give them room, they flood the system with liquidity, and the crash is contained to a sharp but limited drop. This is the most "comfortable" outcome for the market. Scenario 2: The FED is trapped by inflation and cannot print. With inflation rising again, as Powell himself just confirmed, the FED may have its hands tied. No money printing, no rescue, and the market bleeds out for months. This is the painful, drawn-out scenario. Scenario 3: A full 2008-style collapse. The FED lets something break, just like they let Lehman break, and the entire system cracks open. Bail-ins get activated, banks fall, savings get wiped, and the SP 500 sees a crash on the scale of 2008 or worse. This is a very real option, and I refuse to take it off the table. I am positioned for all three, and depends on the targets the probability that we are at top area is extreme high. The only question left is how deep the FED is willing to let this fall, and based on inflation, based on Powell's own words, and based on the political climate, I believe the risk of scenario 2 or 3 is far higher than the market is currently pricing in. The top is in, or it is extremely close. I am short, and I am staying short with an invalidation once the FED starts printing once again! The next weeks will be very important and many will miss out on real time updates and thats where premium is worth everything. It costs $59 / month and thats less than some of the trading fees you are paying! I cant repeat it more often but premium offers insights you are getting no-where else. Join here: whop.com/joined/drprofi…

@MarioNawfal Looks like the blockade is working. The more he squeezes, the more they want to negotiate. Keep squeezing them!!!!

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's new 14-point proposal is on Trump's desk, and the structure changes everything... According to two sources briefed on the proposal, Iran submitted a 14-point framework Thursday with a specific sequencing strategy. Phase one: a one-month negotiation window to reach a deal that reopens Hormuz, ends the U.S. naval blockade, and permanently terminates the wars in Iran and Lebanon. Phase two: only after that deal is reached, another month of negotiations on the nuclear program. This is a smarter version of the proposal Trump rejected last week. The earlier offer asked Trump to lift the blockade and shelve nuclear talks indefinitely. The new offer builds in a hard deadline for nuclear negotiations to follow rather than disappear. Iran is trying to give Trump enough sequencing for him to claim a comprehensive resolution while still front-loading the immediate economic relief Tehran desperately needs. Trump's response is mixed. Yesterday he said he's "not satisfied." Earlier today before flying to Miami he said he'd review the proposal on the plane. Then on Truth Social he wrote he "can't imagine that it would be acceptable" and added that Iran "has not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years." That's a reference to the Islamic Republic since 1979. Putting that language into the negotiating posture suggests Trump is positioning for a more punitive approach rather than a transactional resolution. Source: Axios

@King0ftheCharts FWIW x.com/Max1milianPric…

@MarioNawfal How does it work when they’re blown out of the sky?

🇩🇪 Nuclear submarine commanders train their entire careers to remain invisible. This helicopter exists to find them. The NH90 Sea Tiger is Germany's new naval helicopter and it hunts submarines using 3 simultaneous methods: 1. 360-degree radar and infrared cameras scanning the surface for periscope exposure 2. ⁠Active dipping sonar lowered on a cable that bounces acoustic pulses off metal hulls underwater 3. ⁠Sonobuoys, a deployable grid of floating microphones that listen for reactor hum and propeller vibrations Onboard computers use this data to calculate the submarine's exact depth, speed, and heading, then the helicopter launches a lightweight torpedo that continues the hunt autonomously. Submarines have historically been a weapons system that required either another submarine or a dedicated warship to neutralize. The Sea Tiger changes that calculus by putting submarine-killing capability into a helicopter that can be deployed from almost any naval vessel. Nowhere to hide in modern warfare, the tech has gotten too good. Source: Defence Dec YT0

@King0ftheCharts At the height of the dot.com bubble, semi stocks were 5% of the $Spx. Today they are 16%.

@King0ftheCharts The last time SOX was this stretched (or more) above its monthly Bollinger Bands was indeed during the dot-com bubble, specifically the parabolic moves culminating in February–March 2000 (just before the major top and subsequent brutal bear market in tech/semiconductors).

. SPX at Long Term 6 Yr Resistance The S&P 500 has rallied up just above the January 2026 peak to slam into the upper boundary of the rising 6 year channel. This channel has marked every top & bottom over the last 6 years. It is very likely the S&P 500 will reverse at it or just overthrow it and then reverse. Multiple points of bearish divergence have formed on the weekly RSI, which suggests a reversal will happen soon rather than just a pullback. . $SPY $SPX #SP500 $NDX $QQQ #NASDAQ100 $NQ #stockmarketcrash #oil #Powell $DJIA $VIX #war #Iran #Trump #FOMC

@MarioNawfal No worries, Mario. I will sleep well knowing that the war is over according to you.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on Iran tonight at the State Dinner: We have militarily defeated that particular opponent. We're never going to let them have a nuclear weapon. "And we're doing a little Middle East work right now, too, if you might know. We're doing very well. We have militarily defeated that particular opponent. Charles agrees with me even more than I do. We're never going to let that opponent ever have a nuclear weapon. They know that, and they've known it right now very powerfully." Trump just declared military victory over Iran in front of King Charles, and dropped the line that Iran will never be allowed to go nuclear, full stop. Iran's "peace proposal" landed on his desk yesterday with everything except the nuclear program included. Tonight he answered it on the record in front of the world.

@King0ftheCharts Good point!

@EliManningHOF You may be right. I just don't think this we get dragged out into the mid-term elections. I think it will get resolved before going into 250th Independence Day Anniversary and the summer.

@King0ftheCharts FWIW, Iran is entering the hot months. Scorching heat. Tough to do any ground operations.

@King0ftheCharts Yep. I see this as a choice between letting the bloackade squeeze them into submission or bombing them some more. Both choices have oil prices elevated going forward.

@EliManningHOF Thanks. So far, this isn't a ground war.

@UserRedDawg @ExpertsLie @zerohedge Never liked this idea. But this is how they played the game with the Trumper. Equal justice under lawfare.

@ExpertsLie @zerohedge Even if they can't get a conviction...making Comey shell out six figure lawyer fees and being tied up in court rooms for years is a good consolation prize.

*DOJ INDICTS FORMER FBI DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY FOR 2ND TIME: CNN

@TraderJonesy @WallstFendi Are your weekly and monthly signals bullish on $TNX?

@WallstFendi All I do is follow signals. They will keep me in the overall direction. Any pullbacks we get on war new, I will buy. Weekly signal line is bullish. Monthly is bullish. In a bull trend.

The last three weeks caught a lot of people off guard. The next 6 to 12 months may catch even more. While everyone is calling for a correction, crash or major pullback, I’m looking the other way. I believe the bigger move from here is higher. I got caught in the squeeze after my signals flipped bearish near 650 on $SPY. That happened. I own it. There was nothing to control once conditions changed and I break that down in the video. What matters now is this. My signals are turning bullish. And when they do, the average expansion has been around 20%. That puts $SPY in the 750 to 800 zone. Look at the backdrop. Over the last year we saw a 30% crash, then another 10% correction in March. November through March was consolidation and reset. Now we are expanding. There is very little in the data suggesting broad bearish conditions right now. A lot of people are about to get left behind because they’re focused on what just happened instead of what’s developing next. That’s where traders get trapped. They anchor to the last move and miss the new one. My larger signals are not built to catch every short term swing. They are built to keep me aligned with the larger direction. That’s the edge. This is not the time to hold a bias. This is the time to adjust, adapt and prepare for the next leg. Any pullbacks I get, I’ll be adding size. Right now I’m about 20% sized into December calls for $MSFT, $TSLA, and $NVDA. Waiting for a small pullback on $SPY to grab calls for it next. My 6 to 12 month targets: $SPY 750 to 800 $NVDA 280 to 300 $TSLA 490 to 500 $MSFT 500 Watch the video. Then decide if you’re positioned for what comes next. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ

@MarioNawfal How can this dude smile saying "we" lost? lol

🇺🇸🇮🇷 "WE'VE BASICALLY LOST THIS WAR" That's John Mearsheimer, the most influential realist IR scholar in America, on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. His read: Iran will never surrender control of the strait. It's their only real leverage. Giving it up would be strategically insane.

@TraderJonesy Pass. x.com/great_martis/s…

$SMH is approaching a very key level here. If lost, you have yourself a very healthy correction that could take place.

@UserRedDawg @CryptoHog6 @Polymarket lol. 😂

@EliManningHOF @CryptoHog6 @Polymarket Reductio ad absurdum their nonsense until they try to change the subject via a red herring or have a word salad meltdown. Works about 95% of the time.

JUST IN: Iran reportedly has just 12 to 22 days of unused oil storage left.