Elizabeth Cook

@BigglesDefies @moving_charlie Keep up dear

@moving_charlie Never going to be a rate cut during an election.

Oh my god they won’t let it go! Apparently, because the BoE used the words “finely balanced” to describe today’s decision, that means rate cuts are now “imminent”. Maybe they are, but creating endless false hope is just cruel!

@moving_charlie stop it you're hurting my feelings

@ElizabethC97647 Why would these hypothetical people you refer to pick and choose to listen to my unsubstantiated expectation, and then choose to ignore my advice to never wait? You are being pig headed.

Everyone who needs to buy a home but has been waiting for rates to drop has been making a mistake. If you’ve had an offer you can afford accepted on a home you want to live in, never wait. The only way to get to that situation is to be out viewing potential homes.

@dav54650413 @moving_charlie Charlie has a record of predicting things that aren't remotely likely, it's what he does to get attention.

The election shake-up by the appearance of Farage as a contender is by far the biggest story affecting the future of the housing market. Because whatever happens, based on these latest poll results, he is very likely to be in opposition of some form in Parliament. These results suggest the possibility (to the contrary of what everyone assumed) that Reform are taking even more votes from Labour than the Conservatives. Let that sink in. (Actually, there aren't many conservative votes left to take anyway). This is why I think there's a real, if small, chance of a hung parliament, where Farage becomes kingmaker like Clegg was in 2010. In theory, it is possible, depending on how the final results pan out, that he could choose a Reform/Labour OR a Reform/Conservative coalition. He said at his launch speech, without hesitation, when asked the question who would he 'do a deal with' if the opportunity arose, "whoever offers us the best deal." He has thought this through. If this happens, planning rules, Landlord tax rules, house prices, mortgage rates, rents, eviction laws, social housing rules, new build rules, homelessness, literally EVERYTHING to do with housing comes into play in that scenario. In other words, whatever the final, detailed outcome of this election, housing policies are finally going to change. Whether for better or for worse, we won't know. But, this (the prospect of actual change in the housing market) is the greatest reason for optimism in housing I can remember for a long time. Not because I am a Reform or Farage supporter, I'm not, I'm completely politically neutral. But because nothing would make a bigger difference to this country than to fix it's housing, whatever they do or don't end up doing with immigration.

@moving_charlie You weren't saying that when you predicted house prices would fall by 35% between 2022-25 and the property market would collapse.

It’s a market of two halves.

@alexgroundwater @moving_charlie Of course Labour will win, even Farage acknowledges that. Get him to put some money on the bet.

@moving_charlie You’re betting it’s a hung parliament and Farage has enough influence to decide the leader? While I’m saying that Labour will win… and that’s the bet… but mostly because Farage split the meagre Conservative vote 🤷🏼‍♂️

@moving_charlie It's good for Labour that you are now predicting they won't win with a majority

Let’s clear something up: Changes of government are the single biggest events as far as the housing market is concerned. Nothing is bigger. The next biggest thing is an unexpected change in The Opposition. This election has just changed from a Labour open-goal, slam-dunk, into an unpredictable nightmare for both main parties (plus it’s all but guaranteed a historic wipeout of the Tory party). If Labour can still win with a majority (as most expect, but I no longer do) then the housing market won’t change much at all. But if, as I suspect, the wily Farage out-manoeuvres Sunak and Starmer and continues to pull off PR coups on a daily basis, and if he smooths off enough of the rough edges of the Reform manifesto, he will at the very least be leader of the opposition, and quite possibly a member of a coalition government if it’s a hung parliament and he gets to be kingmaker. That changes everything from 24 hours ago. Because it means that whether Labour win or it’s a hung parliament, he’s going to be in Westminster being a self-confessed “bloody nuisance” which he’s exceptionally good at being. So, whatever the election outcome, we are now facing a much more uncertain future House of Commons than we were just yesterday. Farage takes housing policy seriously; so this means that there is now much more chance of actual change than before. Let that sink in. I still am. My initial feeling; The Tories being wiped out of opposition means there’s a glimmer of hope for housing that wasn’t there yesterday. Over and out for tonight. Interesting times.

@moving_charlie That you're talking nonsense, as I said before.

@ElizabethC97647 What’s your actual point? Do you have one?

Could you sell the home you're about to buy for the same amount the next day? If not, you're overpaying. Can you afford to pay above market value? If so, no issue, buy, move in and be happy. If not, revise your offer to what you could sell it for again the next day, or walk away.

@moving_charlie Not much better, no. The buyer has made the highest offer so it would be reasonable to assume they wouldn't be able to sell it the next day for the same price.

@ElizabethC97647 As is your response. Where did I guarantee anything? I didn’t think it needed spelling out but just for you… If *in your opinion as a buyer of that home* you couldn’t sell it the next day for the same price. Is that better?

@moving_charlie @LeoMars75 Yet you used the word "collapse" previously as in housing market collapse. Don't see the housing market collapsing, do you?

@LeoMars75 House prices never crash. They slide. It started in August 2022. Not done yet.

Word from the street doesn't align with official figures.

@moving_charlie @YeahNoMaybeUmmm 3 months on - do you still think it will happen?

@ElizabethC97647 @YeahNoMaybeUmmm There is still time. It will still happen.

"The only thing worse than being talked about, is not being talked about." - Oscar Wilde. reddit.com/r/HousingUK/co…

@VolaTim @moving_charlie @fxrepotradooor You're making the mistake of thinking he's logical. He isn't and thus his position is not worth unpicking

@moving_charlie @fxrepotradooor I really can't unpack how you think about risk, gambling & investing. It's not coherent. You said it's not worth doing unless you risk more than you can afford to lose, which over-rides every point in the second tweet.

Clarification: The purpose of this post was not to mock anyone hoping for a cut. I am hoping for a cut. It was to point out the widespread commentary on any sliver of hope for one, which creates false hope for people, when there is not yet any rationale for a cut on the horizon.

@bestagentboss Christ what fresh hell is this?

All Agents: Save Thursday 27th June 2024 in your diary to be part of the greatest event in estate agency history. You can all participate from your place of work. Details soon. The end of the Overvaluing/Rightmove era is near.

@DDC2 @Gooneritis @moving_charlie @sashayanshin He was way out on the 35% collapse in the property market. He's making money from his extreme predictions but what are you getting out of it? Nothing but people like me feeling sorry for you.

@Gooneritis @moving_charlie @sashayanshin So far Charlie’s been correct on trend. ONS and vested interest lender indices have been rarely correct on the trend, if ever

Wait? In a falling market? How does that help sellers get more? This is the mistake so many sellers are making. They don't accept that it's a buyers market and they don't accept that prices are falling, so they think "I'll wait" only to find out that prices have fallen further.

@moving_charlie Because it's not the EAs job to sell surveys?

Ask yourself why estate agents aren’t tripping over themselves to sell you surveys.

@moving_charlie @ifyouignorethis Like most of the anecdotes you post but you post them anyway

If you’re going to waste your time repeating this unverifiable anecdote and expect a response, you need to provide more information. Similar properties can often sell for different amounts for a variety of reasons including neighbours and interior spec. Your anecdote is meaningless without more details.

Brace yourself for a raft of headlines on “house prices rising” on the back of reporters either wilfully or ignorantly misinterpreting Rightmove’s newest unhelpful and misleading average asking price index. The average of new asking prices is higher because more people are listing expensive properties. Actual House prices are mostly falling.

@moving_charlie You called it a "collapse" in case you've forgotten

“UK housing has entered a bear market.” I agree. The “slide” I’ve been telling everyone about for some time.

@funkymonks1234 @russellquirk @moving_charlie He is very very far from unbiased and cries like a baby every time someone disagrees with him

Is @moving_charlie 'dangerous'? This is the face-off you've all been waiting for ... two opinionated experts at each others' throats for two years on the subject of future house prices. Charlie Lamdin and I go head to head here and argue the toss. A lot. First off though, can he explain what his business, Best Agent, does. Then, the supposition from Charlie in 2021/22 was that "House prices would peak in 2022 and then drop 35% from 'peak to trough' by 2025". I say 'This simply hasn't happened as Charlie predicted. And nor will it'. Charlie is dangerous because he's encouraging buyers, especially first time buyers, to wait on the sidelines for a 'property Armageddon' whilst house prices continue to rise. This is costing them money unnecessarily. youtu.be/ZlXgV79zDAk?si…

@moving_charlie You seem to expect people to trust you on far less "data" which is in fact a few cherry picked examples of house prices falling (confirmation bias). Or don't you think people should trust what you are saying?

Fact: Halifax doesn’t publish house price data. It publishes a single number, derived from a closed data set, without calculations, that’s impossible to verify. This is not data. It’s a derivative of a closed data set. We are expected to trust that it’s accurate and error free. They don’t even give us the sample size, let alone breakdown by property type. Fine that’s their prerogative but it means it’s totally unverifiable. Because hey, large corporations, especially those in the money lending business, can be completely trusted to get the calculations right, no? Wake up, please. It’s nothing more than an interesting indicator which sometimes loosely correlates with other interesting indicators. It is in no way something that anyone should base their major business or personal purchase decisions on. The fact that ANYONE in the property industry thinks otherwise is very worrying, ESPECIALLY given that large estate agencies have the ACTUAL HOUSE PRICE PAID DATA and, weirdly, most of them choose not to publish it.