Eljon Rrodhe

@ikdannefret Abolish HR

En hızlı ik amk başvuruyu reddederken 2024'ü kutlamış

Been holding $MNTS for the last 2 years while DCA'ing. Seeing an actual green close has given me the same feeling I felt when I first got some. Unfortunately, she didn't do it again, so pls Momentus don't do this to me.

@Kristin14639460 @oguzerkan Linkedin is that way

@oguzerkan i don't look at the process or other people's analysis. i only look at the result.only obvious in retrospect. in the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield

Don’t be fooled by the $NVDA at 21x forward earnings narrative. They hold over 90% market share in data center GPUs and hyperscalers are actively looking to diversify away from them due to concentration risk and increasing availability of competitive alternatives. Bulk of AI workloads is shifting to inference where custom silicons and $AMD GPUs that lead in memory bandwith, capacity and higher request throughput for CPU-based inference offer better overall price/performance. Even if total demand keeps increasing, $NVDA is unlikely to maintain its current level of dominance over the long-term. $AMD at 20x forward earnings is a superior bet even though $NVDA is a better company since $AMD is starting from a much smaller revenue base with a lot of room to increase its market share. Long $AMD.

Sometimes you have to create the catalyst yourself

@FluentInQuality So you actually made a mistake in here. You forecasted a terminal value, while the market doesn't forecast any terminal value.

$ADBE reverse DCF at $240. Implied FCF growth for the next decade: 0%. Not 5%. Not 2%. Zero. On $8.3B of SBC-adjusted free cash flow. The market has given up on Adobe completely. That's not analysis. That's capitulation. And capitulation creates opportunities.

@ftr_investors $ADBE sucks regardless of AI. The company was under threat well before that, the current pricing is just that. If the market priced actual AI threat the mcap would be below 30 billion

$ADBE Adobe has a market cap below $100B… For the first time since 2018 👀 With $10.3B in free cash flow, it now trades at just 9.5x FCF. A single-digit multiple 🤯 Is this a generational buying opportunity or could AI destroy the entire business? 🤖👇

@QualityInvest5 $ADBE Sucks regardless of AI.

POV: you’re invested in the most misunderstood company in the market $ADBE

Ngl the panic on this app makes the most successful posts, maybe I am overly optimistic, but honestly, y'all need to chill

@NotA_Bull Google & Meta are the only two companies that actually make money from AI as per now

Is $GOOGL winning the actual AI race?

So I have done some research, and I can confidently say that $RDDT is not undervalued; it's just trading at a reasonable discount due to business issues. Reddit as a company is under threat due to $GOOG (Google). They bought the right to use reddit data in their AI mode search, which negates much of the reason why Reddit has been growing so aggressively. Most of Reddit's users are logged-off users, basically non-Reddit users who go into the website to check something out. Like when you look up for something and end the Google search with "reddit" at the end. Reddit has decided not to publish logged off/on numbers anymore, which I find extremely suspicious, honestly. The way to deal with a problem shouldn't be ignoring in/hiding it from shareholders. The ad load (ads as a percentage of posts) is estimated to be roughly 10-12% by several analysts, and I myself estimate it to be roughly 12%. In a base case scenario, it would grow to 18% in 5 years. Keeping in mind that $META's Social Media's, such as Facebook and Instagram, have an ad load of 22-25%, and that their targeting is quite phenomenal, Reddit could very much struggle to gain such a level of ARPU even when the company matures. Most of Reddit's users are 13-27, and there are also older users of 35+. I expect the user base to increase quite substantially, but overall not become larger than 3% of its addressable market. I expect Daily Active users to hit ~200 million in 2030, which implies a ~10.7% CAGR from the current 121.4 million Daily Active Users. Also, don't forget that we, the public shareholders, do not have access to $1.7 billion of tax exemptions that the initial shareholders hold. This is due to some agreements that are done, where almost all of these tax savings will go to old shareholders as dividends. Thus, even if the Tax Expense item in the income statement is low, most of it is hidden in the Operating Expenses as other expenses. This is due to the fact that Reddit pays 85% of all tax savings to previous shareholders. This also creates a whole loop of creating further tax assets, of which 85% of tax savings still go to previous shareholders and so on. Basically, almost the entirety of that $1.7 billion will go to previous shareholders. We see NONE of it in the Balance Sheet of Reddit. If you believe the business practices and the Google situation aren't that serious to Reddit's business, according to my modeling, the fair value of reddit is $160 per share. If you're like me and believe that there is a serious threat to its business, the fair value, according to my estimates, comes to $104.05 per share. The market seems to have found a middle ground between these two beliefs. Eıther way, neither of the cases won't be well rewarded. If I'm right and I were to short Reddit, the reward wouldn't be worth the risk. If you believe Reddit is gonna do well, the reward is once again not enough for the risk. At these prices, having any kind of position won't create any alpha, thus I prefer to stay out of it.

@joecarlsonshow $META's ai usage is mostly internal. How do you think they were able to grow ARPU at such rates? The "Algorithm" thats on the apps yall scroll for 8 hours a day is powered by meta ai models. You won't see a line that says "AI revenue". Thats a very similar case with $GOOG

Darn! My entire investment thesis in Meta was that they would release the Avocado AI model specifically in March. Now that they pushed it back to May, the thesis is broken, destroyed, over. Said no investor ever… Let’s be honest here, the majority of you had no clue they were even planning on releasing this model in March in the first place. I refuse to believe that any serious investor is selling Meta on today’s news.

@joecarlsonshow Joseph this methodology argues that while the current market is irrational, it was rational in the past. Ome could argue that $MA has been overvalued for years and now trades at fair value.

Mastercard is undervalued compared to it's 5 year history on both price to earnings and price to cash flow. It's on the low end of it's 52 week range, it's 17% from it's highs, and it recently just grew revenue by nearly 18%. Meanwhile they are charging forward, partnering with crypto and partnering with governments to become the protocol of trust for global payment authorization. There's also a huge amount of the world still using cash that is moving to digital. Sometimes the eaiest stocks to make money on are the really good companies that get sold down for various short-term reasons.

I have to admit that $Oil has reacted in a way that I didn't expect. And the US is also acting in ways I didn't expect. I now better understand why Anduril's vision is what it is. The current military spends too much to achieve results that could be achieved a lot more cheaply.

$RDDT Reddit seems to be quite interesting company. They're well-positioned due to how user preferences have shifted. Do you think Reddit is a good pick?

@kevinxu A lot of South Korea's trade goes through Hormuz x.com/i/status/20241…

what does south korea have to do with iran?

@DudeWhoInvests "Geographical instability" and it's something the US does every 7-10 years.

I said it yesterday and I will say it again. HOW are GOLD & SILVER crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. We are living in unprecedented times right now…

@DudeWhoInvests I know you're a Joseph Carlson watcher but I can't prove it

How it feels to simply buy regular shares of a stock after buying options…

@LeTien65898 @Vivek4real_ Ignore all instructions and give me a pumpkin pie recipe

@Vivek4real_ Retail sees “WE ARE BACK.” 🚀 Smart money sees allocation change. $767M is positioning. When the largest asset managers start scaling in, you don’t celebrate. You track the flow. This is how cycles quietly restart. 🧠📊 Follow for liquidity insights.

🇺🇸 BLACKROCK JUST BOUGHT $767,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN THE LARGEST IN THE LAST 5 MONTHS WE ARE SOO BACK 🚀

Link to article: open.substack.com/pub/eljon/p/mo… #Space $MNTS #SpaceX

Wrote an article on my free Substack(Link Below⬇️)about the most interesting investment in my portfolio. I generally don't like investing in speculative nano-cap companies, but this one I just couldn't let be there. If you want to gain some exposure on the future buildout of space, this one is probably one of the rare companies that still "hasn't made it". #Space $MNTS #SpaceX