Elliott

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Elliott

Elliott

@Elliott_EcomMfg

US and Intl Mfg and Ecom. Leading brands that shape metal into tools, fixtures, and automation support. US Army Vet.

Los Angeles, CA Katılım Nisan 2024
890 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
It’s one of those lessons everyone needs to go through once, still remember learning this lesson in woodshop back in 8th grade. I drew several parallel lines on a block to cut out several exact width strips for a chessboard and the teacher said “look what happens after the first and second cut”
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Gabriel Levine
Gabriel Levine@gabriel_levine1·
Did real machining for the 1st time today and I now intuitively get how engineers so easily make designs that annoy the machinist. I made my piece too short because I forgot that the band saw is a physical object, with a diameter, that eats 1/16" on the way through
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@BuildBoost Even in very sunny areas you only get about 6 solid hours of max output
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Build/Boost
Build/Boost@BuildBoost·
@Elliott_EcomMfg For some reason I thought 25% utilization was reasonable but maybe that's just socal or im remembering wrong But yeah its not even close to the turbine lol
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Build/Boost
Build/Boost@BuildBoost·
Well first off you need 4MW of solar panels plus battery storage, assuming youre running ops outside of peak solar availability, so youve already blown the gas turbine budget. Oh and also you need at least 20 acres of land for the solar farm vs < 1/10th acre for the turbine Why indeed would anyone want a turbine
BladeoftheSun@BladeoftheS

That's nice, but a 1MW Gas Turbine costs $3m and needs fuel. 1MW of Solar Panels costs $0.8m and doesn't need fuel. Why would you want something 4x more expensive that also needs fuel?

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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@connorkapoor The need to look up how large the battery system is for the giant solar farm some gulf country is putting in, it’s like 1:4 ratio
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@Object_Zero_ I’ve been waiting for someone to say this. Use directionally solidified blades instead of single crystal and take the efficiency hit. Electricity is just a part of data center costs
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Object Zero
Object Zero@Object_Zero_·
Turbine Products and Industrial Bottleneck The reason turbines are increasingly becoming an industrial bottleneck is because the only turbine technology that is in mass production today is the hyper-car class of turbine technology, imagine the only car your buy was a Lamborghini, a Bugatti, or a McLaren… that’s where the power turbine market is. Nobody is mass producing the Toyota and Honda class of turbine technology. All turbine product specifications currently in mass production are maximally efficient, and maximally thermodynamically performant. The products available in the market are simply not designed for rapidly scalable production. It’s all single crystalline metallurgy, refractory ceramic coatings and laser drilling. Yes, this stuff is hard to make. No it doesn’t need to be this way. Nobody is still mass producing your grandfather’s turbine. As demand balloons, order books swell, prices surge and lead times are now blowing out to 60 months!… That is more than enough time for a new entrant to come in with a basic, low cost, short lead time mass produced offering that enters the market and quickly captures 40% market share, just by keeping product specs simple enough to scale production capacity horizontally with low lead accessible plant equipment. This is an ironic example of the highest tech sectors needing some low tech solutions. If you see things holistically and you genuinely know what you’re looking at, the world looks different and the solutions to the biggest problems are kind of obvious to you, but this type of observation is just not that common. The real bottleneck in the world is that not many people see the world this way. I guess because it’s such a hard won perspective.
Object Zero tweet media
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@IanRountree Are there also concerns of bottlenecks in other industries? So if you get ahead in turbines, suddenly GPU delivery also can’t keep up, or memory? At this point everything seems bottlenecked up to 2030 anyways
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ian
ian@IanRountree·
I wasn’t concerned about these bottlenecks because I know how supply & demand work, but someone recast it for me recently and now I’m worried… Why won’t suppliers ramp production to meet demand? It’s because they’ve seen this story before. Silicon Valley has some new hotness that’s going to change everything, they invest in it, then the crash happens and they’re in a worse place than before. They won’t be fooled this time. So they hold production steady, enjoy higher prices and operating margins, and assume the party will end soon. The upshot is this creates more room for high-conviction new entrants.
Gaurab Chakrabarti@Gaurab

You cannot buy a new gas turbine until 2030. Order books at GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi stretch to 2029. Turbine prices have nearly tripled since 2019. Every AI data center needs power and every gas plant needs a turbine. And every turbine has one part that bottlenecks the entire industry: The blade. It has to survive in gas 500°C above the melting point of the metal it's made from and spin at up to 20,000 RPM under 10,000 g of centrifugal force. Each blade is grown as a single crystal of nickel superalloy, pulled through a vacuum furnace at 3 mm per minute. A set of blades costs $600,000 and takes 90 weeks to grow. The same metallurgy powers modern jet engines. Only 3 companies on Earth can build one. China spent $42 billion trying to catch up. They bought a Russian fighter engine, took it apart, and copied every part. Their copy ran 30 hours between overhauls versus 400 for the original. Modern Western engines run 4,000. You can reverse engineer the shape of a turbine blade. You cannot reverse engineer 60 years of metallurgy.

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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
There is no such thing as a well informed voter, they might have better formed opinions, but nobody actually knows how the system works or what they are getting. Look at every high profile person in tech as an example.
Ramit Sethi@ramit

The entire article is hilarious if only to show you how dumb MAGA voters are. In many cases, they voted for someone DIRECTLY OPPOSED to them. They still don't realize it But do not pity them. They chose exactly what they're getting nytimes.com/interactive/20…

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Sean Frank
Sean Frank@Seanfrank·
I need capitalism to work because I need people to have money they need to carry in a slim minimalist wallet
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@Robotbeat Is there something uniquely difficult about sourcing the electrical steel in the US? Does it make sense to source it overseas as better than not having it?
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Robotbeat🗽 ➐
Robotbeat🗽 ➐@Robotbeat·
If SendCutSend starts carrying electrical steel, watch companies and startups just making their own electric motors and transformers, even if it’s not THE optimal alloy, etc.
em m0shouris@emm0sh

initially it was surprising to me that centralized manufacturers like sendcutsend are an accelerant, not a competitor, to small shops your onesie-twosies are under threat, but your hundredsies-two-hundredsies are much cheaper because you’re getting your blanks pre-machined by jimmy B and the mad cutters, and you hated your onesies anyways you also get to focus. “we do EDM” — great, keep focusing on that because it doesn’t make sense to centralize that that’s just for part manufacturers. it’s rocket fuel for startups, design/build shops, integrators, etcetera. every shop i’ve worked at had a backlog of parts where it was known the bottom 20% were simply not going to be made. if you were lucky the parts were escalated externally but cost a ton. there’s a relief valve for these graveyard parts now the net effect: this is a flywheel for american manufacturing. job shops get faster and cheaper, more people are willing to use them, people build more things, those things need more parts, demand increases and supply matches and the flywheel gets faster it’s really exciting. i’m trying to think of anything that was as impactful to hardware startups as this, and i don’t think i can. this is probably more important than computers for hardware

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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
seems like every machinery dealer now knows about email marketing...
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@buttersyyz Yeah, direct flight coverage is one of those under discussed factors. Austin is also too small (probably why airport situation is like that), its metro area population just 1/3 of SF
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
Only a handful of places in the world have the economic and talent density to create a cluster like Shenzhen, and precisely zero of those governments actually want to decrease taxes and regulations to make it happen.
Y Combinator@ycombinator

Hardware Supply Chain @dessaigne In Shenzhen, a team can go from design to a new physical part in a day. In the US, that same loop often takes weeks, and that gap compounds. The overall stack for rapid hardware iteration still doesn't exist in America, and we want to fund the startups building it.

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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@Seanfrank Dems/DSA floating it as an option on future election cycles, where they can paint bad guys as the billionaire tech moguls who built AI to steal your job and raise your electricity prices. Billionaires have no good plays in the short term.
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Sean Frank
Sean Frank@Seanfrank·
This tax will be found unconstitutional. That’s incredibly obvious if you read it. It was written by someone with no tax law background, as a gun to hold California hostage. But in reality, it is just going to bankrupt the state. “Billionaires don’t pay tax!” California has a 14% income tax that includes capital gains. The billionaires in California collectively pay 3-10 billion a year. They are now going to leave. In return, we get nothing. Except Ca will go into a recession, pensions will go unfunded, and Gavin will lose all hope of ever being president. One stupid bill, written by an idiot, will cost the state billions.
matt@mattxiv

a man fighting against a ONE TIME 5% TAX on billionaires so that the poorest among us can have healthcare is not someone who should be president btw

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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
Tesla Semi truck sales going to be held back by the expense and hassle of getting charging setup in parking lots. Most places will need upgrades from the utility, and even if they don’t, most panel locations are going to be in the wrong place relative to the site layout. Drive around an industrial park after business hours and see where all the tractor trailers doing day runs are parked.
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@connorkapoor Under discussed part of moving, Texas is ok, I could never do New Jersey.
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Connor Kapoor
Connor Kapoor@connorkapoor·
Been here a few months and I still hate the texas frontage road system
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
@dirtman Is that a laser welding gun in cutting mode?!
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Elliott
Elliott@Elliott_EcomMfg·
Has anyone run a guerilla marketing campaign on Waymos yet?
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