Nick Stone retweetledi
International punters fairly confident of a Burnham victory in Makerfield
📈 Labour up to 68% with @KalshiPolitics and 74% with @Polymarket
📉 Reform chances sliding to around 4:1
💰 Just over $230k traded.
English
Nick Stone
87.8K posts
Nick Stone
@EuropeanNick
Lots of politics, plenty of travel, public transport geek & delving into the Eurovision Song Contest. My views are my own. Retweets not always endorsements.
Bingley, England Katılım Ocak 2018
962 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Nick Stone retweetledi
Nick Stone retweetledi
The list of candidates has now been published for the parliamentary by-election for Makerfield. You can see it on our website here: wigan.gov.uk/Council/Voting…
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Oh man. Kenyon now going directly for Lowe.
Cllr Rob Kenyon@RobKenyonReform
I used to respect you Rupert. Restore have never wanted anything to do with this area. But now someone born with a silver spoon in their mouth is trying to lie about the only working class local man in the race. I want net negative immigration.
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Bulgaria won #eurovision 2026
It is, arguably, the biggest shock winner of all time at the Song Contest.
Here's my article showing how 'Bangaranga' turned from mid-table wannabe to a winner by a record ever margin within the space of four days in Vienna
escinsight.com/2026/05/26/the…
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
If I were the EU, I’d insist on euro membership, just to make sure it would be even harder to leave, were we disposed to try again.
Ben Judah@b_judah
Since the debate on Britain rejoining the EU has opened up two questions have emerged as central. Would the UK be forced to join the Euro or the passport-free Schengen Area? The truth I explain for @arguablymag, is that if you look closely at the treaties, the UK would have a veto of any implementation of its Schengen membership, as would Ireland who is not in Schengen — which is of course like us committed to an open border on the island of Ireland as per the Good Friday Agreement. The UK also would join the Union with an automatic derogation on Euro membership until it had fulfilled the Maastricht criteria, key bits of which are at their own discretion. If the EU wanted a Rejoin government to win the referendum, it could simply clarify these points before any campaign. Neither of which is a concession but a statement of legal fact. This means a referendum, per polling, is eminently winnable. arguably.uk/p/a-good-rejoi…
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Five things really jumped out from our Makerfield focus group for this piece
1) Burnham's biggest challenge is showing how his win, and any future plans will benefit Makerfield directly that: this is about them not him.
2) Lots of the group really disliked Starmer but: vote Labour to get rid of Starmer really goes against voter psychology
3) Reform's biggest challenge is to derisk. The "risk" of Reform is still enough to stop some wavering voters rolling the dice on them.
4) Restore cut through driven by social media was a real thing and just as in Gorton we heard people worried about splits in left vote here a couple worried about right split.
Lara Spirit@lara_spirit
NEW: The myths of Makerfield – this pivotal seat is not what you might think – I sit down with Robert Kenyon, Reform's candidate, who defends himself as "rough around the edges" – Focus group, poll and conversations on the ground suggest seat on a knife-edge – Restore Britain on 7 per cent – should Reform be concerned? thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Reform now in open civil-war. As I said yesterday. They’re a party that’s now experiencing a complete nervous breakdown
Zia Yusuf@ZiaYusufUK
Robert’s answer is not Reform policy. As the person responsible for our deportation plan I want ensure people know where we stand: If a foreign national lives in social housing at taxpayer expense, they automatically fail our economic test and will be deported.
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Just to add to the chaos I'm now being told by multiple sources from different parties that canvass returns for Makerfield show Restore significantly outperforming the 7% revealed in the Times poll. I suspect that's what's underpinning the current Reform meltdown.
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
🚨 NEW: Reform UK's Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon said in 2019 that he did not vote for Brexit
"Anyone who thinks I love Trump, voted Brexit... is wrong... I woke up the day after Brexit shitting myself to what was voted for"
[@thetimes]
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
The UK is about to head into its fourth period of real wage contraction since 2008.
The previous periods were the long squeeze from 2009-2014, a smaller drop in 2017, and the big fall in 2022 stemming from the Ukraine war and resulting energy price shock.
Read more on Substack ➡️ buff.ly/rBt8UM1
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Westminster Voting Intention:
REF: 26% (+1)
LAB: 17% (+2)
CON: 17% (-2)
GRN: 17% (-1)
LDM: 13% (=)
via @FindoutnowUK, 20-21 May
(Changes with 13 May)
English
@LoftusSteve After becoming PM, John Major scrapped the poll tax. Abandoning the 1987 party manifesto commitment. He waited until June 1992 before calling a GE.
English
If Burnham wins I think it highly likely that he calls a GE before long.
His agenda is vastly different to Starmer and he can't do it without a mandate. And he has the ego to think he could win and some favourable polling.
Burnham might be Reform's best hope.
max tempers@maxtempers
I’ve decided that Burnham will trounce Reform and become our next PM. It’s over. The only possible silver lining is that he’ll probably be ‘coronated’ after a decisive win and won’t have to subject himself further to the demands of the Labour membership.
English
@LoftusSteve If he becomes PM, does Andy Burnham need call a GE?
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Allies of Andy Burnham are privately delighted his chances in Makerfield are being boosted by the Reform/Restore row.
thesun.co.uk/news/39216426/…
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
🚨NEW: Labour MPs are planning to defect to the Green party if Andy Burnham loses the Makerfield by-election
[@Telegraph]
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
This is the incredible thing. Restore are literally running the Reform playbook page by page. And Reform are acting like they've never seen it before.
Will Kingston@WillKingston
How is this argument any different from the argument that Conservatives made against Reform in 2024?
English
Nick Stone retweetledi
Real wages are turning negative in the US and are on track to do so in the UK, too
English
this is a good example for how the current British rail operators made an easy to orient system around serving distinct routes
Islington, London 🇬🇧 English
Nick Stone retweetledi
This chart comes the @WSJ article on “The Risk Premium for Holding Stocks Over Bonds Is Vanishing: Gap between market’s earnings yield and bond yields has narrowed, a measure that has at times predicted subpar stock returns.”
What investors should do about this is far from straightforward. It underscores the unusual challenges currently facing the construction of model portfolios due to complications to the core asset allocation inputs that underlie them—specifically, expected returns, volatility, and correlation.
#investing #investors #markets #economy
English