Evan Jones

@FreeRangeLawyer @IJ I have a feeling that I disagree with you in general, but I agree about the "you" part. Probable cause against a company is not probable cause to search a bunch of people's possessions there.

So why is the case so important? The fundamental principle at stake is that if the government wants to search and seize your property, it has to have some reason to think you did something wrong. The FBI came up with a blatant scheme to circumvent that fundamental principle, and, so far, no court has held them to account. And if the FBI can get away with this here, it's a green light for the government to try the same ruse again throughout the country. And it's not just safe deposit boxes. The government could pull the same trick with storage lockers, hotels, even apartment buildings. But even more fundamentally than that, the basic question here is whether there is going to be any consequence for an obvious attempt by a federal agency to circumvent the Fourth Amendment. Are there consequences for this kind of blatant disregard for constitutional rights? And if not, what kind of society do we live in?

Tomorrow, I'm flying to Los Angeles for oral argument in what may be the most important Fourth Amendment case pending in the United States today. The basic facts: The FBI broke open and searched hundreds of safe deposit boxes without any reason to think the boxholders did anything wrong. U.S. Private Vaults, a business in Beverly Hills, offered a private and secure place where people could store their most valued, sensitive possessions. In March 2021, the FBI raided USPV, broke open every single box in the vault, and looked through all the contents. The FBI ran all cash in the vault by drug dogs, opened envelopes and photographed the contents, and ultimately sent everything worth over $5,000 to asset forfeiture---initiating proceedings to keep that property forever.

@CMargaritez @umichvoter Part 2 of 2: If each state shifted as much as the state house district within it did from the 2022 election for that seat to yesterday, both states would flip.

@umichvoter What is the "new information from today" that I am missing?

based on new information from today

@CMargaritez @umichvoter Part 1 of 2: A state house special election in Florida that was much better than expected for a Democrat, and a state house special election in Minnesota that was much worse than expected for a Democrat.

@admcrlsn I have a comment about your Split-Ticket article. About ages, polls show 18-29 being Biden +16.0, and 18-34 being Biden +2.8. If all ages within that group are equally likely to vote, ages 30-34 would have to be Trump +29, and that is impossible.

Part 2 of 2: and Orlando in a 139-107 win at Sacramento on January 13, 2009. My source is the Stathead Play Index.

Part 1 of 2: Tonight hosting New York, Milwaukee became the third team to shoot three-pointers at least .605 with at least 23 three-pointers made. Milwaukee won 146-122. The previous teams to do that were Milwaukee in 140-113 win hosting Indiana on March 22, 2021;...

@alldandi @MappingFL A Republican resigned in June. He won 68-32 last year, so he won by 36, and 270toWin has the Republican up 6 with 98 percent counted.

Wow this is a lot closer than expected for a Trump +17 seat This is with early/absentee Eday should be more too. I do think Redondo will win But wow that shouldn’t be so close

@greggiroux There will not be any presidential primaries that week, so it will be the biggest election of the week.

Feb. 13 special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District, per Gov. Hochul proclamation:

@SpeakingBee @greggiroux I read that he could run as an independent, but all that would do would be to split the Republican vote and help the Democrat win. The sore loser law is for candidates who lose major party primaries. There is no way he could win three-way against a Democrat and a Republican.

@greggiroux New York state law prohibits Santos from running, doesn’t it?

@greggiroux New York law says 70 to 80 days. Since it is 74 days, there are no other Tuesdays in the 70 to 80 day range (74-7=67 and 74+7=81). My former state New York and current state Nebraska both let parties pick candidates for special House elections instead of having primaries.

Just 74 days from vacancy (Dec. 1) to special election (Feb. 13) in a highly competitive congressional district. Don't see that too often: #gid=0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@LinkofSunshine @StatsLime What does LFR mean? acronymfinder.com/LFR.html has 36 acronyms, and none are an obvious fit.

@StatsLime LFR

The fertility rate drops from 2015 -> 23 are insane in just EIGHT YEARS: France: 1.96 -> 1.68 Sweden: 1.85 -> 1.42 America: 1.84 -> 1.64 UK: 1.78 -> 1.45 Russia: 1.78 -> 1.41 China: 1.75 -> 1.05 (wtf) Germany: 1.50 -> 1.42 South Korea: 1.24 -> .73 (jesus christ)

@mattyglesias Given how much Adelphi charged when I worked there from 2008 to 2015, I'm surprised Columbia isn't charging more. I'm not saying Columbia should charge more, just that they are not charging as much above Adelphi as I expected.

Columbia University charges students $27,822 (plus various fees) per semester for a two-year program leading to a master’s of social work degree.

@NickyScatz Part 2 of 2: 1984 ended a streak of two incumbents losing. What is coming up is different because if Trump wins, he will be term-limited in 2028, and the four elections from 2016 to 2028 will all change presidents. The last time that happened four times in a row was 1884-1896.

Is it possible that incumbency is no longer an advantage in presidential races?

@NickyScatz Part 1 of 2: Would you have said that incumbency is not an advantage after incumbent losses in 1976 (Ford lost to Carter) and 1980 (Carter lost to Reagan)? Those were followed by incumbent Reagan winning everything except Minnesota and D.C. in 1984....

@NickyScatz The only times that three consecutive presidents served two terms each were Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe; and Clinton, Bush, and Obama. If Biden loses, I would not say incumbency is no longer an advantage, and I think Trump would have won if COVID didn't happen.

@ElectionCorner @MRobinsonStan There was also Arizona's Martha McSally.

@MRobinsonStan 2020 would be Cory Gardner Doug Jones and Loeffler and Perdue 2022 had no Incumbents lose

What every Incumbent Senator who lost re-election in 2018 is doing now: Bill Nelson (D-FL): NASA Administrator Joe Donnelly (D-IN): Ambassador to the Holy See Claire McCaskill (D-MO): Political Analyst for NBC Dean Heller (R-NV): Failed to win nomination for Governor in 2022

@Tekken_Guy LaLota won by 11.0 percent, and Malliotakis won by 23.6 percent, so they will be hard to beat unless Democrats gerrymander. Lawler won by 0.6 percent.

Basically handing the DCCC oppo research.

@Sctvman Last night Hofstra played for about 1:38.

St. John’s/West Virginia started on ESPNews because a HS game at 5:30pm ET (Cooper Flagg) ran late, then got on ESPN2 6 minutes in, and is kicked off with 4 minutes to play (in 4 point game, mind you!) for the start of UConn/Kansas. You can’t play college games in 2 hours.

@Sctvman Occasionally they start games 15 minutes after the hour to have greater gaps. If they gave each game two and a half hours, there would be gaps with more commercials than talk or highlights.

Part 3 of 3: My source is the Sports-Reference College Basketball Play Index. Northwesternwon 92-88 in overtime. Purdue's Zach Edey led all players with 35 points and 14 rebounds. Northwestern's Boo Buie scored 31 and had 9 assists.