ShadowStock

Created a live feed of US special situations (spin-offs, divestments, rights offerings, etc). Refreshed every 5 minutes. Check it out! It's free!

"The bottom 40% of hedge funds lose money every year." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ex-Tudor PM, ex-Caxton, ex-Moore Capital — explains: "Hedge fund returns are Pareto distributed. Like a chart of wealth — Elon at the top, a bunch of other billionaires, then it gets flat pretty quickly." "In the hedge fund industry, that distribution falls right around the 40% mark." "60% profitable. The bottom 40% lose money every year." "25% of the bottom 25% will go out of business and be replaced by another 25% pretty much every year." "There's nothing we can do to help them. They're asking the wrong questions." "AI's not going to help them. Machine learning's not going to. They misunderstand the markets in a fundamental way. They can't be saved."

@twaddle_inc @AltayCapital

@ExpectedValues @AltayCapital

Just started using Claude Pro at the behest of @AltayCapital. Holy shit guys. The shit you can do with CoWork and Code is insane. Gg any investing edge I had. I just hope all the autists keep using this for analyzing complex DCF valuation models of NVIDIA's next earnings and ignore this area.

"So, Mike Burry of San Jose, a guy who gets his haircut at super cuts and doesn't wear shoes, knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Pollson. Dr. Mike Bur. Yes, he does. That's cute. That's cute. Are you being sarcastic with us, Mike? Oh, [ __ ] Michael, give me my money back.Give me my fucking money back" Big Short when Joel Greenblatt storms into Burry's office. youtu.be/pLLgNi5UmB0?si…

'The market has jumped the shark': Michael Burry says stocks may finally be at the precipice of a major reversal msn.com/en-us/money/sa…

How a math PhD built a $10,000,000,000 empire with exactly ZERO human traders. Alexander Gerko founded XTX Markets. They trade $300 Billion every single day. No charts, no financial news, no stress. Just pure machine learning predicting price action. While retail traders draw support lines and panic, his automated models systematically extract their liquidity. Bookmark & watch Bloomberg break down his "no humans" strategy. Then read below to see exactly how these quantitative systems are built

"Double in three years. That's my hurdle rate." — how a financials PM generating 21%+ annualized finds his best ideas: Derek Pilecki (@gatorcapital), financials-only for 18 years, manages roughly 40 names at a time: "It's a name that is less trafficked. It's not talked about. It's not controversial." "If I can come up with the investment thesis that it'll be a double in three years, that's my hurdle rate. Mid twenties IRR." "It adds discipline because you don't burn up a lot of capital on mediocre ideas. You're only putting money into things that you think can really have a lot of upside." "I keep a running list of things that are interesting. Maybe the stock price isn't low enough yet to get you at a double. Maybe you need to see more development of the idea play out." "Markets tend to underreact to good news. Sometimes you can just be patient. Good things are happening and the market won't believe it." "It'll give you time to get into a name. You might not bottom tick it, but you'll have more confidence and more confirmation of your thesis by paying up for it a little."

Michael Burry says market feels like 'the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble' cnbc.com/2026/05/08/mic…

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet. Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine. But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it. Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last: The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down." Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left. And here's where it gets really bad... Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food: One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely. This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May. Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said. We're in it. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have. And nobody has a Plan B. G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. There is no workaround. And it doesn't stop at food. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication There is no substitute. Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question: Where is the helium coming from? And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up. Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor: Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. Midterms are only 6 months out. Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed. The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends. Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other: Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. The global economy is caught between two walls closing in. Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink. I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished. Energy is the trade. Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.

@John_Chungus_5 @leevalueroach

@leevalueroach i've got A shares with a single digit basis you long haired hippy fuck

What do people like about Berkshire here? I see it at 8% free cash flow yield and founders gone. That’s way lower than my cost of capital.

This is perhaps the most remarkable interview I have ever seen. Facing death, @BenSasse shares his views about life, faith, society, government, technology and the world we live in. This is not about partisan politics or markets. Instead it is about something far more important - humanity and our lives. I urge you to turn off all your devices, get to a quiet place and watch the entire conversation.

@ArchiteuthisDx “I bet your little Asian, fish head, wife doesn't have these cannons"

"Come here, little brown boy. Come here, litte brown boy. Your penıs belongs to me. Give it to me."

I agree. But retained earnings (as of 04/2024) have increased by 39% for META, 62% for MSFT, and 70% for GOOGL. Retained earnings are reduced for dividends. 04/2004 retained earnings for METGA = 104B, now 144.6B, MSFT 173.1B to 280.8B, and GOOGL 191B to 324 B. Change from 04/2024: META price change +58% or +40.60B increase in retained earnings balance MSFT price change +33% or +107.70B increase in retained earnings balance GOOGL price change +108% or +133B increase in retained earnings balance

@ExpectedValues @youtzy_stephen @conorsen Look what that’s doing to their share prices. They borrowed 100 billion for share count reduction

Combined capex spending of META/MSFT/GOOGL: FY 2007: $4.6 billion FY 2021: $63.9 billion FY 2024 (projected): $122.9 billion

@youtzy_stephen @PolarityRadio @conorsen 2026 CapEx Guidance for Meta = 125B-145B, Microsoft =190B, Alphabet =180B – 190B. Combined total: LOW-END: $495B, HIGH-END: $525B, MIDPOINT ESTIMATE: $510B

@PolarityRadio @conorsen Can we get an update here? Wow has capex absolutely exploded

Since there's so much talk of 1970s NYC lately, I thought a short history lesson might be interesting: Pre-1975: NYC controlled its own budget. The chronic operating deficits of the early 70s were papered over by rolling short-term notes annually with a growing reliance on capital budget to fund operating expenses. Spring 1975: Underwriters stopped marketing city paper, market access effectively closed. June 1975: State creates Municipal Assistance Corporation (MAC), a state chartered entity that issues long term bonds backed by city sales tax revenue diverted to the state and refinancing authority moves out of City Hall. Sept 1975: State creates Emergency Financial Control Board (EFCB). This was a state appointed body with binding authority over city budget, labor contracts, and borrowing. The Mayor and Council retain office but lose the final fiscal sign-off. Dec 1975: Federal seasonal loan program signed after initial refusal (the "Drop Dead" reversal). Fiscal sovereignty transferred from elected city government to state-appointed oversight. The regime continued via EFCB to FCB in 78. Complete active control until NYC regained market access in 81, then "standby" thereafter. Okay Arch who cares? What about today? 1. Active monitoring continues. The FCB still meets, still issues quarterly staff reports analyzing the city's financial plan and flagging risk gaps (see: FY 2026 Adopted Budget review in August of 2025). Standby authority is still effectively in place. Direct management of the city's budget ended in 1986, but the board continues to monitor/oversee and most importantly-- Sunset extended: Earlier this year the Financial Emergency Act was reauthorized through at least 2035 (and with active discussion of making it permanent). tl;dr The conditions that made the burning BX possible are much more difficult in today's NYC. Mamdani can do alot of damage, but don't expect a speed run of the 70s. @WalksWallstreet @ExpectedValues

The natural course for stock pickers is to get more negative and contrarian as you age. You develop more experience in how quickly good things can come to an end in every facet of life, business and the markets. It creates a callous. The battle scars accumulate and they make you slower to act on good ideas and faster to sell good ideas. It’s another reason why many younger talented investors can outperform the established old farts. I believe one of the keys is to always have younger people around you, in your networking circle. It slows down and even stops the regression to the mean. Protects you from the ability to take risk getting totally scared out of you over decades. It stops the portfolio itself from turning into an over diversified gelatinous basket of mediocre ideas.

@twaddle_inc TA = Astrology for men.

So I've read Ted Warren's book "How to Make the Stock Market Make Money For You". Any other book recommendations for learning technical analysis.