Paul Ashworth

406 posts

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Paul Ashworth

Paul Ashworth

@FCVMacro

Chief Data & Modelling Economist Capital Economics

Toronto Katılım Ocak 2014
568 Takip Edilen319 Takipçiler
Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@RobinWigg It does look pretty generous. FOMC has nominal GDP growth at ~4.7% for next year. A matching 4.7% increase in the monetary base next year would only be worth $250bn. $40bn per month is $480bn per year. So either purchases do drop off next April or the M0/GDP ratio will rise.
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Robin Wigglesworth
Robin Wigglesworth@RobinWigg·
The Federal Reserve said today that it’s going to be buying $40bn of Treasury bill a month to ensure that the US financial system has enough liquidity. Here’s an old AV post on why, why it matters and you should PLEASE not call it QE… ft.com/content/df3a10…
Robin Wigglesworth tweet media
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Paddy Hirsch
Paddy Hirsch@paddyhirsch·
@FCVMacro Hi Paul. Would you be interested in talking with NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money about the 30 year bond? If so, please DM me and we'll line up a conversation.
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Donald Schneider
Donald Schneider@DonFSchneider·
The nominal cost of all of this is $3.8tn, a bit less than clean TCJA extension inclusive of business provisions. How can it do that and be stimulative in short run? Early sunsets for "Trump Promises," real budgetary savings from the IRA & other tax changes, and expensing timing
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Donald Schneider
Donald Schneider@DonFSchneider·
Update to the chart. Here is the decomposition of the deficit expansion in the tax bill as a % GDP relative to current policy baseline (proper growth counterfactual). 20bps in FY25, 87bps in FY26. Growth impulse is the sequential change, adjusted for composition of policy.
Donald Schneider tweet media
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@JosephPolitano @Birdyword I was encouraging my university-age sons to start a dropshipping business last night to arbitrage the canada and US prices on Temu. It could be like prohibition, but hopefully with less guns.
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Mike Bird
Mike Bird@Birdyword·
Anyone got any good recommendations for Chinese-made electronics, consumer durables etc that I should be frontrunning before inventories run out on the East Coast?
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@MarkJCarney So you're okay with canadian consumers paying double what consumers in Europe and the US pay for milk?
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Mark Carney
Mark Carney@MarkJCarney·
Supply management is part of our economic sovereignty. When it comes to negotiations with President Trump, it’s off the table.
François-Philippe Champagne (FPC) 🇨🇦@FP_Champagne

Our farmers, ranchers, and agri-food workers are at the heart of our economy. With @MarkJCarney, we’re defending supply management, investing in local processing, and cutting red tape. A clear commitment: protecting our agri-food sector and building a stronger Canada.

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David Leonhardt
David Leonhardt@DLeonhardt·
The left has lost power in the U.S., Germany, Italy and Sweden. Canada and Australia may be next. And the far right is growing across the West. But there is one European country where the left has won re-election and marginalized the far right: Denmark. Why? 🧵
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@tobi US seizures of fentanyl at the northern border last year amounted to 43lb. So about a quarter of my body weight. Seizures at the southern border were 21,100lb.
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tobi lutke
tobi lutke@tobi·
This would be a disaster. Canada wins by helping America win. The tariffs are avoidable. Secure the boarder and do a better job on cracking down on drugs.
unusual_whales@unusual_whales

BREAKING: The Canadian federal government is planning a multibillion-dollar, pandemic-style bailout for workers and businesses if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian goods as early as February 1, per the Globe and Mail

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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@EconBerger Sorry, I was talking about the 5 year benchmark revision to gdp rather than the annual benchmarking of payrolls.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@FCVMacro But we already know the next benchmark revision (Q1 2024) will also be negative, and probably quite a bit larger
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
Question for “NIPA Nuts”: I know the 2022 GDP growth data got some fairly big upward revisions. But should we expect some downward revisions to more 2023 and 2024 GDP growth data - in 2025 and 2026?
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@EconBerger I'd say 2023 won't be changed much from what we have now - either up or down,
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@FCVMacro I get your wariness here. I don’t think we’re in recession. But I am interested in the probability that current-vintage post-2022 GDP growth data are a modest-to-moderate overestimate
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@EconBerger The last benchmark revision was for 2023, released 12 months ago, which covered up to 2023 q1.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@FCVMacro Paul, thanks for responding! if I’m reading it right… the most recent comprehensive annual surveys correspond to 2022. So what’s relevant to my question are the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Surveys which won’t be fully incorporated into the data for 2 more years…
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@EconBerger I wouldn't still be hanging on to the hope a massive downward revision would justify the recession call some have been pushing for the past couple of years
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@EconBerger And the GDP data are all chain-linked now, so revisions tend to be smaller than they were pre-1996
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@spomboy cbo.gov/system/files/2… It was exactly in line with what the CBO predicted. It's bigger than last year because the Treasury reversed its student loan cancellation hit in August 2023, which half the teenage scribblers in the consensus presumably didn't realise.
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steph pomboy
steph pomboy@spomboy·
Holy budget deficit, Batman! August Deficit comes in $90b ahead of estimate. Looks like we won't get the details until 2pm est....but this is f-ugly! QE infinity coming soon. No wonder gold is flying.
steph pomboy tweet media
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
It's July people. Auto production always goes haywire in July because of annual retooling shutdowns. But the effects are always fully reversed in August.
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Omair Sharif
Omair Sharif@fcastofthemonth·
So, while the seasonal adjustment this Jun did look larger than in recent years, it was pretty similar to what we tend to see in June when June has fewer weekdays than normal. Seasonal adj accounts for trading days -- holidays, weekdays -- shifting holidays, etc. (5/5)
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Omair Sharif
Omair Sharif@fcastofthemonth·
SA sales were 0% but NSA was -5.6% so the seasonal factor (SF) added 5.6pp. That was more than last Jun, when it added 2.7pp or Jun23 when it added 1.3pp. However, the SF accounts for changes in the calendar. This Jun had 20 weekdays vs 22 last Jun and 2 fewer working days (2/5).
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
@Djr2145 The 6m ave of the PCE change in those components. But the weights are so small for most of them that it only affects the third dp.
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@FCVMacro What are you baking in from the unreported CPI categories due to low response rates? Like legal services?
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
Our post-CPI estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.19% m/m in June has, post-PPI, been cut to only 0.12% m/m. In addition, we think that May’s increase could be trimmed from 0.08% to 0.05%. That would be enough to pull the annual core PCE inflation rate down to 2.5%.
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
September rate cut nailed on at this stage.
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Paul Ashworth
Paul Ashworth@FCVMacro·
PPI hospital prices increased by only 0.1% m/m in June and the massive 1.3% m/m surge in May was revised down to a 0.6% gain. In addition, PPI physicians prices fell by 0.4% m/m in June. Portfolio management prices only increased by 1.0% m/m.
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Keşfet

@RobinWigg @paddyhirsch @DonFSchneider @JosephPolitano @Birdyword @MarkJCarney @DLeonhardt @tobi