RJD2145

314 posts

RJD2145

RJD2145

@Djr2145

Katılım Mart 2023
254 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@gbrew24 I respect and don’t doubt your expertise. But from the perspective of an equity investor, being too closely anchored to the geopolitical/commodity echo chamber for this event has been extremely hazardous for returns. Don’t get too macro. You will lose money.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
"With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open." Also: "Whether the Strait is open or closed and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, not by social media." Aimed at Trump, to be sure, but also at Araghchi?
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf

۱- رئیس جمهور آمریکا در یک ساعت هفت ادعا مطرح کرد که هر هفت ادعا کذب است. ۲- با این دروغگویی‌ها در جنگ پیروز نشدند و حتما در مذاکره هم راه به جایی نخواهند برد. ۳- با ادامهٔ محاصره، تنگهٔ هرمز باز نخواهد ماند.

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ian bremmer
ian bremmer@ianbremmer·
orban getting absolutely hammered, as expected, in hungary. after 16 years of incompetence, mismanagement and europe’s most kleptocratic governance by a long margin…a historic win for the hungarian people.
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@TukiFromKL No it didn’t contribute to GDP growth bc most of the investment went into imports, which acts as a drag via net exports. Maybe you should actually read the GS work on this (you clearly haven’t). That take an basic economics class on GDP accounting.
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Tuki
Tuki@TukiFromKL·
🚨 Let me tell you why this Goldman Sachs headline is the most dangerous one you'll read today.. Companies spent $450 billion on AI last year.. fired tens of thousands of people to "restructure around AI".. replaced entire departments with chatbots.. And Goldman Sachs just said it contributed basically zero to economic growth.. so where did the money go? > It went to Nvidia.. $130 billion in GPU sales.. Jensen is the only man on earth who got rich from AI that hasn't produced anything yet.. > It went to stock buybacks.. companies fired people, cut costs, reported "record profits" and bought back their own shares.. the money went UP not OUT.. Jesus! > It went to a bubble.. the same way crypto money went to Lamborghinis and not infrastructure.. AI money is going to valuations and not productivity.. here's the part that should terrify you.. They already fired the people.. Atlassian 1,600.. Meta 21,000.. Block 40%.. Amazon warehouses.. the jobs are already gone.. But the growth didn't come.. the productivity didn't come.. the revenue didn't come.. they burned the village to build a city that doesn't exist yet.. and Goldman Sachs just looked at the empty lot and said "there's nothing here"
unusual_whales@unusual_whales

"Massive investment in AI contributed basically zero to US economic growth last year," per Goldman Sachs

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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@DonFSchneider @TheStalwart @typesfast All the more reason to do away with these tariffs. Big Foreign companies are smart enough to game the system and Amazon can lean on foreign producers to gain mkt share. Meanwhile local small businesses who don’t have resources to navigate this quagmire are getting sacrificed.
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Donald Schneider
Donald Schneider@DonFSchneider·
Really interesting segment between @TheStalwart and @typesfast taught me something I didn't know about tariff fraud / nexus with refunds:
Donald Schneider tweet media
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@bencasselman They also released an updated source file for PCE translation which had legal services sources from CPI NSA. So seems like they subjectively used PPI legal for just this month? I get the CPI legal print is garbage but still this comes off as v dodgy.
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Ben Casselman
Ben Casselman@bencasselman·
An obscure methodological tweak -- a change in the source of data on the price of legal services -- resulted in meaningfully lower monthly PCE inflation in January. That's prompting questions about why the change was made, and why it wasn't disclosed publicly.
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@petereharrell Great news. How long can the government drag this out for if CIT rules for refunds to be issued?
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Peter Harrell
Peter Harrell@petereharrell·
The Court of International Trade (CIT) just ordered full IEEPA tariff refunds for all importers. The gov't will appeal, of course. But (a) the Courts do not want to see delays on refunds! and (b) full refunds are very likely. Court set hearing Friday to discuss plans.
Peter Harrell tweet media
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Jacob Edward
Jacob Edward@JacobEdwardInc·
Neither of these men are married or have kids. Both are simply obsessed with their own personal perfection and optimization. There is nothing impressive about a single man with no kids sleeping well and being fit. Show me a man with young children, a full time job, disrupted sleep, who works out regularly, eats healthy, trains Jui Jitsu, with a muscular body… THIS is impressive. THIS requires extreme discipline.
Camus@newstart_2024

Chris Williamson just shared his "nuclear" sleep stack that's quietly changing his life—and Andrew Huberman breaks down exactly why it works: If you're lying in bed at 2 a.m. scrolling or staring at the ceiling, this 4-minute protocol combo might be the fastest way to shut your brain off without pills. The two killer techniques Williamson swears by: 1. The Mind Walk (visualization on steroids) - Imagine walking a route you know perfectly (your house → front door → street) - Do it with insane detail: feel the shoehorn, hear the key turn, feel the door handle, pressure of the pavement - It's like reading fiction for your nervous system—engages the brain just enough to stop problem-solving loops, but not enough to keep you awake 2. Resonance breathing with the Ohm stone lamp - Bedside lamp with induction-charging stone that has a built-in FDA-cleared HRV sensor - Hold the stone → 3/6/9/12-minute guided sessions with silent tactile vibration (no sound, no light, partner-safe) - Guides you into true resonance frequency (max vagal tone) → the stone knows when you hit it - Williamson calls it “the sickest” sleep tool he’s ever used—currently in stealth (ohmhealth, not widely available yet) Huberman adds the neuroscience: Looking down + eyelids lowering activates parasympathetic circuits and deactivates wakefulness-promoting brainstem nuclei. It’s literally pedaling the sleep pedal while shutting off the alertness arm. Williamson: “Some days you need the adventure story (mind walk), some days you need the physiological hammer (resonance breathing). Stack them and I’m cross-eyed into sleep.” Already trying one of these? Or is your nighttime routine still a war zone?

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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@Geiger_Capital He normally flips shortly after these interviews air public.
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Geiger Capital
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital·
Stan Druckenmiller’s current positions: - LONG Korea + Japan (+ Brazil) - LONG Copper (AI + tight supply) - LONG Gold (geopolitics) - SHORT Bonds Portfolio is no longer "AI-driven". He’s bearish on the Dollar but bullish on the US economy with disinflationary growth.
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Ben Carlson
Ben Carlson@awealthofcs·
Maybe Block laying off a ton of employees is a sign that AI is gonna destroy everything Or maybe the stock is down 80% from the highs and they overhired and AI is a convenient excuse
Ben Carlson tweet media
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Dow
Dow@mark_dow·
"Speaking of wrong, let's welcome Joe Lavorgna to the show"
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@mark_dow Bummer to see Wang so politicized now. Enjoyed his book and his honest takes on here for a period. Now his views seem so tainted. Every interview is an audition in hopes Bessent is watching.
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Dow
Dow@mark_dow·
Bullshit. And we all know this bc we saw Warsh's multiple flip flops in real time. It's really sad to see how full toady Joseph Wang has gone. From lying insinuations about the Fed being politicized to now defending the guy who actually wants to politicize it. Wang was once someone whose analysis you could trust on certain monpol issues. Now his credibility is shot. And for what?
Dow tweet media
Forward Guidance@ForwardGuidance

Kevin Warsh has been remarkably consistent: hawkish on inflation before the GFC, hawkish after the GFC, and hawkish through a decade where inflation stubbornly undershot targets He may be promising rate cuts, but he also has a chance to achieve his long-standing goal of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet @josephwang

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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
10 REASONS WHY THIS IS THE WORST CRYPTO WINTER EVER In today's newsletter, I wrote about how there are just numerous dynamics all happening at once -- from Epstein to quantum to AI to the death of crypto twitter -- clobbering the coins
Joe Weisenthal tweet mediaJoe Weisenthal tweet mediaJoe Weisenthal tweet media
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@albertedwards99 Everyone makes bad predictions. But there’s not comparison between Krugman and Warsh. One has a decent track record and admits when he’s wrong. The other has been in the wrong side of every call for well over a decade but still goes around spewing the same incoherent views.
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Albert Edwards
Albert Edwards@albertedwards99·
Paul Krugman scorns Kevin Warsh as an intellectual lightweight in this substack article. For a man that said in 2005 that "it will become clear that the Internet's effect on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine's", I wouldn't cast stones. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir-d…
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@partners_road Reg reforms might boost bank lending. But I don’t understand your mechanics rationale re reserves. Banks don’t lend reserves to the real economy. They are only transferable within members of the Federal Reserve System.
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RiverRoadPartners
RiverRoadPartners@partners_road·
Maybe, over a VERY extended time frame. What will does he do 1st? He disincentivizes banks from holding excess reserves vs. lending it into the “real” economy. He does that 1st, & in reality this ADDS liquidity w/out an increase in the $ supply, as these reserves already exist.
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan

If you are wondering why asset prices are tanking watch this interview of Kevin Warsh. He dislikes quantitative easing as he believes it inflates asset prices and increases inequality between workers and asset owners. Expect a tighter Fed balance sheet, so less liquidity.

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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
SCOOP: Trump plans to nominate economist Brett Matsumoto to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to people familiar with the matter. Matsumoto has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015. By @mattgrossman and Alex Leary wsj.com/economy/trump-…
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RJD2145
RJD2145@Djr2145·
@ericwallerstein Miran’s views were a welcome (and surprising) contribution to the Fed debates. Will miss his speeches. I’m sure you were a big part of his success at the Fed. Well done!
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Eric Wallerstein
Eric Wallerstein@ericwallerstein·
The biggest Fed news of the day: Today is my last day at the Board of Governors! Grateful to Dr. Miran for having me as his advisor, both while he was CEA Chairman and as a Fed Governor. I’ll share more about my next steps soon.
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Dow
Dow@mark_dow·
A couple of thoughts about Warsh. I don’t think he’s going to be independent and I think most of his criticism of the Fed balance sheet and policy framework when he was campaigning for the job was because he knew he could neither contradict nor defend trump’s views on the policy rate and needed to talk about something else—anything else. I don’t think he’s genuinely super motivated to make the changes he was recommending. He will have to do some symbolic things to make it look like his criticism was sincere, but don’t expect anything dramatic. Second, people are suggesting he’s going to shrink the balance sheet. Like I just said I don’t think he really cares about it as much as he claimed to. Moreover, unlike me, he thinks the balance sheet matters for asset prices and the economy. So why would someone who Trump just nominated be anxious to undermine or put at even the slightest risk asset prices and/or the economy? Trump wants to keep things on maximum pump and Warsh is not gonna get in the way. Third there are limits to how much you can reduce reserves in the system even if you really, really wanted to. The banks need a certain amount of cash in the cash register for settlement purposes. The regulatory framework and bank liquidity preferences would have to meaningfully change if you wanted to reduce the balance sheet even modestly further. And that’s neither easy nor necessarily desirable to do. Lastly is that even if the balance sheet were to be reduced by say another trillion or 1.5 trillion why would that matter for risky asset prices? I thought we learned that ultimately the feds balance sheet doesn’t drive asset prices. I mean, we’ve reduced the balance sheet by 2.5 trillion (and raised rates by a lot) and stocks are basically at ATHs, speculation is more than healthy, and precious metals are/were mooning. All in all, I don’t think the nomination of Warsh matters for the path of the economy or markets beyond it being another step down the path of Trump politicizing the Fed. But we already knew all this, so apart maybe from providing an excuse to pop the meme trading in precious metals, I don’t think it’s in any way meaningful longer-term relative to what the market was already expecting for asset prices or the economy.
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