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Significant ice core data over for the past three million years confirm that major cooling takes place 'without' the influence of CO2.
Two new papers published in Nature (March 17-18, 2026) found that CO2 levels played no part in the cooling and were stable and largely unchanging. This finding runs counter to climate change dogma that CO2 levels drive all climate change.
The onset of ice age conditions did not come from atmospheric CO2 effects at all, but from deep ocean cooling that preceded the ice ages. The core of the findings from Allan Hills blue ice samples, reveal that the long-term cooling of the last 3 million years happened with only a modest decline in greenhouse gases.
Researchers used noble gas ratios (Argon, Krypton and Xenon) trapped in the ice which specifically reflected ocean temperatures. They showed the ocean cooled by 2C to 2.5C - independently of major CO2 shifts.
The data show CO2 levels remained relatively stable (broadly below 300 ppm) even as the planet underwent massive cooling and the formation of the northern hemisphere's Arctic ice sheets.
Instead of CO2 driving every turn, climate responds to small nudges in ocean circulation and reflectivity (albedo), which then push the system across a threshold.
This means the cooling was from changes in total solar irradiance or orbital positioning (the Milankovitch cycles) and oceanic inertia. This is the 'flywheel effect', where the ocean redistributes heat over thousand-year scales, regardless of the thin film of the atmosphere.
Bega, New South Wales 🇦🇺 English
