QuantNerd

The major fault with the argument that the current conflict parallels Gallipoli is that in 1914-1915, Britain was the consumer of the commodity flowing through the checkpoint. This was an existential vulnerability. But the US is the world's largest oil producer and a net exporter. Britain in 1914 is more analogous to Japan/South Korea/India and China... dependent nations with short term inventory. In short: the commodity dependency risk simply does not exist for the US in regards to oil. The US attack on Hormuz is motivated by geopolitical control, not existential oil risk. The US can survive a closed Hormuz far more easily than Britain could a century ago. The second failure point is that Epic Fury is currently in a ceasefire. It is not a military failure by any definition of the word. The US is simply dominant, end of story. Galipolu was about a military operation that failed, this is not that. There are numerous other reasons why its an imperfect analogy but not sure anyone is reading so I'll cut it off here.

I wonder how my wife will feel about this

@TXElectionLaw We don't know each other but I'm very sorry to hear about your loss. Lost one of my sons a few years ago and it is very difficult.

I’m sharing something no parent should ever have to write. We lost our son, Charles, at just 14 years old. If you’d like to learn more about Charles and celebrate his life, you can read his obituary. Please keep our family in your thoughts & prayers. legacy.com/us/obituaries/…

Public school is much worse than Palmer Luckey insinuates here. It's insidious. Factory education model that punishes the gifted and rewards the compliant/mediocre.

@DonMiami3 The follower to nonsense ratio on that account is off the charts

I need to make another account to comment on their crap Does anyone actually make money following these buffoons?

@SantiagoAuFund @Richard_Casey Exactly. The UST gun has been loaded for years and has never gone off. Gold appears to have been liquidated instead. The good news is that when this is all over, I believe that will reverse.

@Richard_Casey Never mind the fact then the Iran war kicked off...these same USD asset holders sold...wait for it...gold.

Luke's daily prediction that foreigners on the brink of liquidating 70tn of USD assets. Perhaps this chart doesnt mean what he thinks it does. Perhaps its actually a better chart to show dollarization than the central bank USD reserves chart he constantly posts. Just a thought

@Jaspell @cutiieepie6 15% for great service. 20% for BJ under the table... maybe. I will die on this hill.

@cutiieepie6 20% is pretty standard these days. If you can’t afford it, maybe try Micky D’s

My colleague and I left $20 on a $309 bill at a Michelin star restaurant last night, and the waitress looked at us like we’d just insulted her grandmother.We split it—$10 from me, $10 from her. The service was fine, nothing exceptional but nothing wrong either. Just standard polite service at a place where the cheapest appetizer was $24. When she picked up the check folder, she opened it right there at the table, saw the two tens, and her face actually dropped. She snapped it shut, forced a smile, and walked away without saying goodbye.We were barely out the door when I heard her telling the hostess something that ended with “…can’t believe it.”I know Michelin spots usually expect 20%, but we’re talking $60+ on food that was good but not life-changing. Am I wrong for thinking the tip should match the service, not just the prestige of the address? Or was I supposed to empty my wallet just because they got a fancy plaque from some committee?

@AndreasSteno @chrismartenson This is the correct take

@chrismartenson We are not going to get a food shortage in the west…….. pure doom porn. The supply shortage shows up elsewhere on the planet. That is the sad and cynical reality

The window for applying fertilizer without facing reduced yields is closing. Food inflation caused by supply shortages seems unavoidable at this point. I strongly advise everyone to stock up on what food you can and to plant a garden &/or befriend local farmers.

Couple of corrections: 1. "Growth ACCELERATED from 19.5% the prior quarter." This is incorrect. Q1 2026 subscription revenue grew 19% constant currency, NOT 22%. Q4 2025 grew 19.5% cc. There was no acceleration. 2. Market cap is $85B not $200B That said, NOW as the AI glue within Enterprises is the real bull thesis. They are positioned to do very well.

ServiceNow built a real time map of every server, every laptop, every permission inside 85% of the Fortune 500. Every AI agent in the enterprise will have to consult this map before it can do anything. and the stock is down 62% 21 things every $NOW investor should know. Bookmark this THE BUSINESS 1. ServiceNow runs the back office of every big company. IT tickets, HR onboarding, security alerts, legal workflows, finance approvals. ~$13B in annual revenue. 2. 85% of the Fortune 500 are customers. 630 of them pay 5M+ per year, growing 22%. 3. 200B market cap. S&P 100 constituent. THE NUMBERS 4. Q1 2026 subscription revenue: $3.67B, growing 22%. Growth ACCELERATED from 19.5% the prior quarter. The "AI is killing SaaS" narrative is not showing up in the numbers. 5. 16 transactions over $5M in net new ACV in Q1. Up 80% YoY. The biggest customers are not cutting back. They are expanding aggressively. 6. Renewal rate 97% in Q1. Would have been 98% excluding one Federal agency closure. Customers who signed in 2011 are paying ~35x what they started at. 7. Remaining performance obligations: $27.7B, growing 25%. Backlog is roughly twice the annual revenue line. THE MOAT NOBODY TALKS ABOUT 8. The product everyone fixates on is ticket management. That is not the moat. Companies are absolutely switching to Jira for tickets at a fifth of the price. That risk is real. 9. The actual moat has a boring name. CMDB. Configuration Management Database. A real time map of every server, every laptop, every application, every integration, every permission across an entire enterprise's IT infrastructure. ServiceNow has built it for 85% of the Fortune 500. You cannot take that map with you. 10. Pat Casey designed the platform in 2008 as a single instance. Every product (IT, HR, security, AI) runs on the same architecture. 11. AI agents can only automate what they can see. Before an agent resolves a ticket, onboards an employee, or responds to a security alert, it needs the map. THE CEO 12. Bill McDermott. Started at 17 running a deli on Long Island. Eventually moving into EVP at Siebel Systems. Then CEO of SAP. Now ServiceNow. 13. The Siebel detail nobody mentions. Siebel was the ServiceNow of the 2000s. 45% market share. Massive switching costs. Salesforce came along, took the business, and Oracle bought up the scraps six years later. McDermott watched the disruption playbook in real time. From the inside. 14. His annual pay is roughly 3x his entire stake in the business. Not a ton of skin in the game THE $11.6B M&A SPREE 15. Three acquisitions in six months. Moveworks for $2.85B (AI agents). Veza for 1B (identity security). Armis for $7.75B (cybersecurity, the largest acquisition in company history). 16. Armis raised at $6.1B in November 2025. ServiceNow paid $7.75B in December 2025. They saw something the late stage VCs didn't or they paid a premium. 17. The pitch: become the "AI control tower" for the enterprise. Vendor agnostic orchestration of every AI agent that runs in a Fortune 500. Strategically right. THE BUYBACK ILLUSION 18. Q1 free cash flow: $1.66B. Q1 share buybacks: $2.22B. Stock-based compensation: ~13% of revenue annually. The buyback is not a return of capital. It is a defense against dilution. THE RISKS (HONEST) 19. ~150,000 tech workers laid off in 2026. ServiceNow sells per-seat to most of them. When Microsoft cuts 10,000 and Meta cuts 8,000, those are seats that disappear at renewal. Jevons paradox (more workflows offsetting fewer humans) is real but takes years to show up. Mid-market seat compression is happening right now. 20. The market is treating ServiceNow's AI exposure as a risk. The opposite is more likely. Enterprise AI cannot scale without governance, permissions, audit trails, and a real-time map of every system. ServiceNow already does all four for human workflows. THE BOTTOM LINE 21. This is a wonderful business at the high end of fair price. 97% renewal. Accelerating growth. The CMDB is the most underrated asset in enterprise software right now. My full breakdown is on youtube (link in profile) Bonus: Fred Luddy founded ServiceNow in 2003 at age 49...and his reasoning: "I couldn't start a company at 50."

Spent a good portion of my career working with and for the biggest ad companies. Management bloat is a real thing. Loads of mediocrity throughout the system, everyone is just coasting through, trying to rack up as many promotions as possible before retirement. Management is more babysitting than anything. Had a nice set of golden handcuffs but had to leave, that was just not how I'm wired.

At a birthday party talking to a dad who works at Omnicom He said there are 4 CEOs in his chain of command!!! 9 total layers. $21B market cap. 120k employees. $165k revenue/employee Sounds like literally the dumbest company of all time. I can’t believe it

I absolutely remember this. Was crazy in Netscape Navigator

@paxtrader777 Life takes its toll on everyone but you've successfully embodied the work ethic and self-reliance that trading teaches. Will stay with you for eternity.

I am 57, I look young for my age(at least my wife thinks so), I feel young for my age and I act younger(see the videos from Miami). However, I started as a runner at CME in 1988 without knowing a soul either in the floor or in the business. I worked every job up to earn my shot at trading. I chose to become an independent trader an not a floor broker because I wanted an unlimited upside(See my pinned tweet for more). After 38 yrs in this business, 28 as an independent trader, the stress & intensity has taken its toll. I have heart problems as well as prostate cancer. I have an eye disease called uveitis which has caused cataracts and glaucoma. I didn’t take my physical health seriously till my later 40’s. Do not neglect that. Everything I warn against on X or in my @NTLiveMedia shows I have done MANY times over. Listen to me if you want, disregard what I say at your own peril. I do know what I am talking about. I have made very mistake so you don’t have to.

@MSGCapital Had an Old Fashioned there for old times sake. That was the largest, shittiest and stronest old fashioned I ever had.

I remember the first time I had a cocktail @ Ceres. I remember the first time I puked in the A-Level bathrooms. It was the same day.

@wholemars Doesn't work with grok!

The Gay Jailbreak Technique

@Dannic44 You expect businesses to stay open when they can't make money?

Walgreens closing at 86th & Cottage Grove is ridiculous. Once again, it’s the South Side, our seniors, our families, our community, left behind. How are seniors supposed to get their prescriptions? How are families supposed to access basic necessities? This is what happens when businesses are pushed out of Chicago. I’ve been warning about this. When you create an environment where businesses don’t feel safe, don’t feel supported, and are overtaxed, they leave. And when they leave. Jobs disappear Access disappears Communities suffer This is hitting Black communities the hardest. You can’t keep voting for policies that drive businesses out, then act surprised when your neighborhood is left with nothing. At some point, we have to stop ignoring the results and start accepting that we are to blame. We keep voting the same way locally and expecting a different outcome, that’s insanity. Chicagoans, wake up,fast. You’re not going to have anything left in your community or this city if you keep putting the same people into office. Danielle Carter-Walters for Mayor-2027 #daniellecarterwaltersformayor2027 #commonsensecarter

It's largely a propaganda piece but the idea that the US benefits asymmetrically from the closure of the Straight and general chaos in energy markets is correct. The major error he makes is confusing outcome with intent. The fact that the US benefits from these events doesn't mean the US orchestrated these events. Claiming every favorable bit of timing is proof of a conspiracy when it's just selection bias is amateur hour.

Interesting read:

@JoeyRedner @Lifeinvestmoney Well don't wait for opportunity to knock!

@FastTradeKing @Lifeinvestmoney I am willing to both if the opportunity arises.

What stopping you from packing it up, moving to Flint Michigan, getting a job at the local water treatment plant and buying this house for 2 weeks wages?

Question on ⁦@Jeopardy⁩ tonight. (Who is Ceres?) BTW also a bar inside. The bar might be more legendary than the statue @dcpcooks @msgcapital ⁦@paxxtrader77⁩ ⁦@jimmyjude171⁩ ⁦@vek1217⁩ ⁦@ScottIrwinUI⁩ @streetwiseprof BTW everyone missed it

Correct

@MikeNellis That's great news!!

Chicago friends, I’ve gotten multiple reports about ICE being active in the city, particularly near schools. Please be careful and stay smart, and support one another because they’re back and ramping up their operations here again.