David Watson 🥑

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David Watson 🥑

David Watson 🥑

@FifthRocket

Mostly I just like tweets. @[email protected]

Mountain View, CA Katılım Şubat 2007
144 Takip Edilen178 Takipçiler
Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
Also, check out this train wreck of a spreadsheet Ed made to estimate Anthropic's revenue for 2025. He doesn't count February 1-10, counts March 1-10 twice, counts August 21-October 21 as one month instead of two, and doesn't count October 21-November 1.
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Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
In a recent legal filing, Anthropic said that its revenue "exceed[ed] $5 billion to date." @edzitron says other Anthropic statements indicate it was more than $6 billion and that "these two statements do not match up." But, um, $6 billion exceeds $5 billion?
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@mattyglesias Since I went through the work to figure out what show this was a reference to, here it is in meme template form for anyone else who hasn’t seen Breaking Bad.
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@TheZvi Presumably he’s responsible for SNW right? Isn’t it generally considered good? Or is that despite his influence?
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@IsaacKing314 I think that early on it was unclear exactly how long L5 autonomy was going to take, and in a world where it's fast, the cost of the hw mattered. But it took so long that now vacuum cleaners have lidar, but they'd feel foolish to go back
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Isaac King 🔍
Isaac King 🔍@IsaacKing314·
I'm generally hesitant to accuse successful people of being terrible at their own field, but I have long thought that Tesla's reasoning for this made very little sense. Yes it's true that humans manage to drive without lidar, but humans would drive more safely if they did have lidar! Even if Tesla had succeeded at human-level driving AI, there are fundamental limits on sensors that can't see in the dark. The obvious next step would be to make your cars even safer via superhuman perception, so why would you not just include those sensors from the beginning?
Tenobrus@tenobrus

tesla's decision to point blank refuse to touch lidar has proven to be one of the most insane self owns of any technology company ever. they easily have the research talent, and waymo has proved they could be doing millions of fully autonomous rides. at this point it's a choice

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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@mattyglesias @sheemawn I’ll go further and say that guy’s take is just wrong. Google’s Dublin towers are way nicer to work/collaborate in than the SV campus!
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@sparr0 @CohenSite Fire escapes got banned decades ago (icing, rust, dangerous). You can still do exterior stairs, but code requires them to be fully enclosed/fire-rated — so you’re just building a second stairwell outside, which doesn’t solve the space/cost problem.
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Sparr
Sparr@sparr0·
@CohenSite What ever happened to fire escapes? Can the second staircase not be exterior any more?
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Joe Cohen
Joe Cohen@CohenSite·
Firefighters are terrible at evaluating risk: - Requiring all passengers in cars to wear helmets: would save 350 lives a year in California - Requiring small apartment buildings to have a second staircase: saves zero lives a year in California
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@Noahpinion @benthompson @deanwball That’s a fair perspective, but we passed the Atomic Energy Act, (and the McMahon act before it) to codify that in law. That’s a possible outcome, but it’s a big leap Thompson makes implicitly.
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Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
Honestly, in the @benthompson vs @deanwball debate, I think Ben is right. There was just no way America -- or any nation-state -- was ever going to let private companies remain in total control of the most powerful weapon ever invented.
Maya Sulkin@SulkinMaya

Alex Karp, CEO of @PalantirTech at @a16z summit: “If Silicon Valley believes we’re going to take everyone’s white collar jobs…AND screw the military…If you don’t think that’s going to lead to the nationalization of our technology—you’re retarded”

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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@tszzl @TheZvi seems to have given a lot of credit for this, and a lot of people respect his opinions.
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roon
roon@tszzl·
im sure everyone will be very fair and give this the credit it deserves and publicly retract their previous statements and apply the appropriate burden of evidence
Sam Altman@sama

Here is re-post of an internal post: We have been working with the DoW to make some additions in our agreement to make our principles very clear. 1. We are going to amend our deal to add this language, in addition to everything else: "• Consistent with applicable laws, including the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution, National Security Act of 1947, FISA Act of 1978, the AI system shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of U.S. persons and nationals. • For the avoidance of doubt, the Department understands this limitation to prohibit deliberate tracking, surveillance, or monitoring of U.S. persons or nationals, including through the procurement or use of commercially acquired personal or identifiable information." It’s critical to protect the civil liberties of Americans, and there was so much focus on this, that we wanted to make this point especially clear, including around commercially acquired information. Just like everything we do with iterative deployment, we will continue to learn and refine as we go. I think this is an important change; our team and the DoW team did a great job working on it. 2. The Department also affirmed that our services will not be used by Department of War intelligence agencies (for example, the NSA). Any services to those agencies would require a follow-on modification to our contract. 3. For extreme clarity: we want to work through democratic processes. It should be the government making the key decisions about society. We want to have a voice, and a seat at the table where we can share our expertise, and to fight for principles of liberty. But we are clear on how the system works (because a lot of people have asked, if I received what I believed was an unconstitutional order, of course I would rather go to jail than follow it). But 4. There are many things the technology just isn’t ready for, and many areas we don’t yet understand the tradeoffs required for safety. We will work through these, slowly, with the DoW, with technical safeguards and other methods. 5. One thing I think I did wrong: we shouldn't have rushed to get this out on Friday. The issues are super complex, and demand clear communication. We were genuinely trying to de-escalate things and avoid a much worse outcome, but I think it just looked opportunistic and sloppy. Good learning experience for me as we face higher-stakes decisions in the future. In my conversations over the weekend, I reiterated that Anthropic should not be designated as a SCR, and that we hope the DoW offers them the same terms we’ve agreed to. We will host an All Hands tomorrow morning to answer more questions.

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Ben Thompson
Ben Thompson@benthompson·
@pierce_coggins @stratechery I don’t believe there are any restriction on Starshield, which is basically the US military version of Starlink, but I’m happy to be corrected.
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Stratechery
Stratechery@stratechery·
Anthropic and Alignment Anthropic is in a standoff with the Department of War; while the company's concerns are legitimate, it position is intolerable and misaligned with reality. stratechery.com/2026/anthropic…
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@TheZvi I was using it to double check my resolution for a manifold market and I caught “fictional situation” in the thinking tokens. When I see that I cancel and reword the prompt to imply it should start with a web search.
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz@TheZvi·
Fun side note: Gemini keeps refusing to believe it is called the Department of War.
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@fartbuttjr @Noahpinion Again, Musk was disabling Starlink when Ukrainians were taking back too much of their own territory early on. This is clearly a change in policy
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fart butt jr
fart butt jr@fartbuttjr·
Well for one I think they found that the terminals were now being used to kill civilians so there was a greater urgency to figure it out. But also, it was not easy - I don’t think Ukraine had a running list of every starlink terminal in use, and so identifying them was no small task. And then no: Musk disabled it at the war’s outset because it had not been authorized by our own govt/military.
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@mattyglesias Summary: Both independently got the demand spiral, credit chain & insurer contagion, MORE bearish on tech-metro housing (guessed -10-25% vs article's -8-11%). Didn't derive: India rupee crisis, stablecoins, S&P 3500. Core macro is standard econ; severity is the author's call
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@mattyglesias This is probably not comparable, but I had the idea of extracting the ‘input’ axioms from the original article and then asking ChatGPT and Claude to try to predict what would happen. Then I had Claude compare these to the original article’s predictions claude.ai/share/41e847e7…
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Neil Cybart
Neil Cybart@neilcybart·
90% of people in the U.S. buying cars are choosing something other than an EV. And that percentage reflected government subsidies and support for EVs. It’s been a decade. People don’t want them.
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@jbarro I’ve been meaning to email you about this for a while, glad someone reached out.
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David Watson 🥑
David Watson 🥑@FifthRocket·
@binarybits @TheZvi I was waiting the entire time for the trees (sugar cane?) to start dancing, but no, it appears to have just been the most reliable way to get a much of scenery onto the field quickly.
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Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
@TheZvi I mean I think the technology to have robotic trees probably exists today. They didn't do that because it wouldn't be as entertaining.
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Bentley Bear
Bentley Bear@BentleyBearCOR·
@FifthRocket @mattyglesias Perhaps he was in charge of coming up with the design, but it didn't get through without all the executives' approval, all the way up to Tim Cook. They are rudderless.
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