Humberto Portillo

Oh

@thekookreport @CongressThot Thanks for splaining. Didn’t seem bullish on the face.

@CongressThot That’s literally how all rocket launches are announced…things like the weather window come into play. NET just means the first time the rocket and the window are ready. Steady hands, mate…remember, lock, aim, hold your breath, and gently squeeze. It’s how you hit a target.

It’s like they are trying to accommodate my spring break schedule. Much appreciated. $ASTS

Lego Introduces ‘California Home’ Set Where Kids Fill Out Permit And Wait 2 Years For Approval buff.ly/DAT14Sf

Conflict risk combined with deeply negative gamma has destabilized markets. With a massive vol premium still embedded, the risk is that realized volatility catches up to meet implied vols. Read our full breakdown: spotgamma.com/the-new-volati…

Hello Mr. Ford. You probably know that Nevada imports 85-90% of your refined products from California refineries. The same refineries that are being strangled by your close friend and political ally Governor Newsom. As everyone knows, Gov Newsom's California's CARB regs, low-carbon mandates & refinery crackdowns have spiked fuel costs for California drivers -- and now Nevadans. Yet you just sued the Trump Admin on March 19 to reverse their repeal of the the regulations that would lower costs of producing energy. Why are you fighting to keep heavy federal regs on fossil fuels & emissions that drive up energy costs? Why do you want to keep in place the same measures that drive up costs in California that Nevadans now have to pay for? Governor Lombardo has been warning Nevada voters about CA's failing energy policies. And just 10 days ago you sued to keep those failures in place. Interesting. We appreciate you sharing your views.

how short are CTAs

$SOC

Market saying we get an 8k in the morning?

@cheugychubby Big lesson for me, Mark, was to get out when the thesis changed in October.

$SOC This story is so interesting still. I have held my position this entire time with both shares and call options with expiries in 2026 and 2027. The call option pricing doesn't make sense to me but I am guessing unless options are sold/bought in my parameters, it isn't dynamically price changing as fast as stock does. But something interesting here is that my thesis this entire time has been that sooner or later CA will lose and industry will win. This has taught me that this not always the case even though SOC ended up right thanks to DPA. But taught me not to have so much confidence in common sense. I don't regret my position but my sizing is way off. I was heavily weighted in SOC which has depressed my portfolio the past year. Looks like the future will be better, but good lesson to me about position sizing and conviction. In this case, I would say half luck and half good sense had me keep my SOC position. For those that recall my old posts about SOC, same thoughts but DPA accelerated. I am now not as confident it would have played out as it should have if it weren't for DPA. Can see why CA regulations cause the stock price to be depressed vs what it should be since CA regulations are crazy.

$SOC Jefferies bumped PT up

Tech Stocks are now trading at their cheapest valuations relative to the S&P 500 in more than 7 years 🚨🚨🚨

Out of nearly 6,800 trading days in XLE’s history, only 41 days registered a rolling 3-month return above +40%. They are clustered into 5 episodes, almost all of which were recoveries after significant crashes. The past 3 months have been the highest sharpe XLE has ever had.

NG-3 Update: We're targeting launch of the @AST_SpaceMobile BlueBird 7 satellite for no earlier than Friday, April 10.

Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the Gulf. NGLs/condensate on top of that. 200 million barrels not produced in March already that should have been produced. That alone is already the largest supply shock in history. And it continues to get worse the longer Hormuz remains shut.

Hard to overstate the role shale gas has played in lowering inflation and spurring American industry. Were we a net importer today as forecast in the 2000s, domestic nat gas & power would be at multiples of current pricing, serving as a huge tax on individuals and companies. 1/5

Spain froze rents and capped increases at 2%, but rent control is already cutting supply by up to 50% and not improving conditions for renters. Spain should follow Argentina, which ended rent control in 2023 and has seen housing supply rise 180%, reports Cato’s @hiperfalcon. ow.ly/k7Mx50YztmZ

If you were to create list of people in the UK who really understand metal supply and demand, have built mines, know commodity economics, large scale industrial investment, project feasibility, permitting, development and finance: then it would not be a long list, but my name would be on it. For all of the people who know that electricity is the future and that hydrocarbons are dying, that we don't need diesel, or gas, or liquid fuels: Tell me where the copper is coming from. Now do silver, tin, lithium and batteries. For those of you say the future is nuclear, tell me where the uranium is coming from. Tell me what price these would be at, and when it could be delivered. Tell me how you are going to build grid resilience and more importantly grid inertia from renewables. Tell me what your plan is for windless, cloudy days in the middle of winter. Tell me what you will do to decommission and replace wind and solar every 10 to 20 years - and where you will dump all those unrecylcable turbine blades. For every GW of renewables we have to build a GW of conventional back-up, or rely on the kindness of foreigners. There is no magic metal shop. There is no new physics that makes a 100% renewables grid work. The greatest threat to humanity is not global warming, it is energy poverty.

“There is still a sizeable fleet of tankers waiting in [the Persian Gulf]. We estimate 150-200 crude oil tankers and a similar number of product are stationary. This has tightened availability and caused freight rates, already elevated prior to the war, to escalate further.”

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday. Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500. Will this time be different?

In 2002, Quentin Tarantino, one of the most influential film directors in the world, walked into a secondhand clothing store in Tokyo, Japan. A track was playing over the speakers. He asked the man behind the counter if he could buy the CD right then and there. The man refused. Tarantino offered twice the retail price. The man eventually gave in. The band was The 5.6.7.8's. Two sisters, Yoshiko and Sachiko Fujiyama, had been playing raw 1960s-influenced garage rock in Tokyo since 1986. They had a small but devoted following. Almost nobody outside Japan had heard of them. Within a year they were performing in Kill Bill: Volume 1, one of the most talked about films of 2003, playing to millions of people in cinemas around the world. Their song Woo Hoo, a cover of a 1959 American track they had never considered particularly important, became one of the most recognised opening riffs of a generation. It hit the top thirty in the United Kingdom. It appeared in television commercials around the world. Their tours went from Tokyo to North America, Europe and Australia. Jack White of The White Stripes, who became a fan, helped release their back catalogue through his Third Man Records label in the United States. Interestingly, back home in Japan, almost nothing changed. Their profile there remained almost exactly the same. They are still together. Still playing.