FlatCoated

*US STILL AWAITING IRAN RESPONSE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SAT:AXIOS

@JarrottHeath Wasn't it his wife that wealthy?

Yeah. But you will never be compelled to say she has a good personality.

Wrote up something fun I’ve been poking at: when LLM agents repeatedly rewrite their own experiences into textual “lessons,” their memory can get worse, not better. Across several environments, we found a recurring pattern: forced consolidation often degrades useful experience into faulty or overgeneralized memories. Interestingly, models seem much better at managing examples as memory objects than at distilling them into reusable routines. Maybe we should be more careful about asking agents to constantly “consolidate” experience into lessons 🤔? I’m new to this area, so I’d love thoughts. I may be missing context or just wrong on parts of it — please don’t hesitate to let me know! Discussions are always welcome. dylanzsz.github.io/faulty-memory

BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Minister just posted this in response to the Axios deal report. Axios has reported an “imminent” Iran deal five times in 19 days. Five times. No deal. Same reporter. Same sources. Same White House. Same Israeli intelligence contacts. $920 million in oil shorts placed 70 minutes before yesterday’s report. $125 million made when oil dropped. Oil surged back when Iran denied it.

@JavierBlas Secretary Bessent:

"I'm confident on the other side of this the world's going to be awash in oil." — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The question is how far away is the other side?

Fog of ceasefire is thick today

@conksresearch When should we expect the unveiling of this master work?

as usual, it's getting out of hand

@jasonfurman Looks like it was done by an LLM.

I got this security question on an Adobe docusign. I was born in 1970 so I selected 1981. It marked my answer as wrong. Was I supposed to answer "None of the above"?

CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us

@conksresearch new info-graphic = bullish

ceasefire holds = bullish ceasefire doesn’t hold = also bullish hope that helps

@mattkuni @JoshKale lmao... and what did they train it on, exactly, PHRACK papers?

@JoshKale Didn’t they just accidentally leak their own source code map two weeks ago? Are they using mythos on themselves?

This is big... Anthropic just announced a model so powerful they won't release it to the public out of fear over the damage it will cause 😨 Claude Mythos Preview found thousands of zero-day exploits in every major operating system and web browser... The numbers are hard to believe: > $50 to find a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD, one of the most security-hardened operating systems ever built > Under $1,000 to find AND build a fully working remote code execution exploit on FreeBSD that grants unauthenticated root access from anywhere on the internet > Under $2,000 to chain together multiple Linux kernel vulnerabilities into a complete privilege escalation exploit For context: these are the kinds of findings that previously required elite security researchers working for weeks. Anthropic engineers with no formal security training asked Mythos to find exploits overnight. They woke up to working code the next morning. The results were so impressive Anthropic assembled Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and seven other organizations into Project Glasswing: A $100M defensive coalition. They're not releasing this model publicly. Instead, they're racing to patch the world's infrastructure before models like this proliferate.

WE GOT HIM!

@sdav1986 It sells the vol or it gets the hose.

All that bla bla bla and futures barely gap down 50 pts. That’s market prices telling you that you’re full of shit!

@TheSpeculator0 Screen name kinda gives you away. :)

also for those asking yes that is my own polymarket front end lmao

someone's randomly bidding up the Iran invasion before april 30th up to >90c. There has to be some buy NO / buy oil (callspreads?) trade here

Robinhood and its PFOF market makers LOVE the idea of you trading wildly in low liquidity aftermarket conditions. You are the product

Brilliant analysis of Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on Iran and Russia in an effort to bring down oil prices Has it worked? My @CFR_org colleague Roxanna Vigil finds it has generated windfalls for Tehran and Moscow while doing little to lower prices: cfr.org/articles/trump…

@BoltsJolts You think they'll win the cup?

This is absolutely insane. This has to be a first. The LA Kings are tied for a playoff spot at 79 points. They have played 75 games. They have 19 regulation wins. They have only won 19 out of 75 games in regulation. AND THEY ARE IN A PLAYOFF SPOT.

@idkjustyelling Easily

funniest guy in the league actually

@spotgamma @zerohedge It's right here for the most part bro: #gex" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix#gex

@zerohedge what even is this

Record drop in dealer gamma to the 2nd lowest on record