Flow
35K posts
Flow
@FlowTraderTM
80 iq. poor. tip of the spear @Ostium
the lab Katılım Nisan 2018
3.1K Takip Edilen9.8K Takipçiler
@fejau_inc @somerealthought why exactly shouldn't markets be encouraged to price future risks before they show up in lagging data?
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that's one interpretation. another is that Waller is pulling forward the repricing of risks (and front loading vol) not yet reflected in the latest data print, and the market is still underpricing them. the retrace only proves that a backward looking data print overwhelmed a forward looking warning, not that the warning was wrong. if those risks show up in the next print, the guidance will have arguably been a net positive for market structure by pulling forward the repricing.
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Very well said from Quinn. Thanks for giving us all a panic yesterday Waller!
A cool core inflation print and we are back on track.
Quinn Thompson@qthomp
Once again Warsh's beef with forward guidance is proved correct. Waller's speech yesterday, in his attempt to defy the Chairman's preferences, couldn't have been more poorly timed and is likely to have marked the top in rates. It's not that Warsh has a problem with communication, it's that he has a problem with the Fed's lack of adequate forecasting tools and thus their susceptibility to communicate wrong things at the wrong time, which is demonstrated on a near weekly basis at this point.
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@somerealthought @fejau_inc government data is backward looking if you're waiting for a print you're already a month behind in execution.
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@fejau_inc I agree about communication but it’s also funny that people will still hang on every word of a single FOMC member instead of themselves just waiting for the data. Of course if inflation came in hot it would be bad we don’t need Waller for that.
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@cremedupepe male mammals generally attract mates through competition ie;
fighting and other indirect displays of dominance
male birds generally attract mates by having bright colors, performing dances, and singing songs
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@themarketradar it would be absolutely cratered in normal conditions
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Where would inflation be today ex tariffs and Hormuz? That’s what you need to be asking
Market Radar@themarketradar
I’m gonna be honest. The current inflation picture doesn’t reflect extensive consumer demand. The hot take here is that inflation barely ripped following a combination of tariffs and the Hormuz rolling through the prints. Just as tariff impacts rolled off you had Hormuz hit the tape. All of this and inflation barely over 4. Really fascinating.
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@notthreadguy if it's manipulated then you should be able to figure out the motivations and incentives behind that manipulation and trade around that
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@FlowTraderTM you really think 4k is the line in the sand?
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@poordart no comment on actual likelihood but one could argue it is now politically and legally easier to characterize any future operations against Iran as counter terrorism instead of engagement in state level conflict. "SAS operating in the Strait of Hormuz soon" etc.
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