jd42

“Somehow, because you despise me, you are the only one I trust.” Casablanca(1942)

Had a little bit more time to digest this. This is truly going to be absolutely insane long term. Amazon is making it so literally anyone - 1 man business to a multi-hundred person team - can leverage they're entire logistics network to move and store product from point to point. Amazon will essentially rent you their trucking, warehousing, logistics, sorting, and delivery mechanism that they've built for the retail side of the business - aka amazon dot com - to literally anyone for whatever purpose they need. This sounds exciting now, but if you fast forward 5-10 years it gets insanely nutty. The reason why is because within that time frame, we are going to see an EXPLOSION of physical AI systems beginning to proliferate throughout the world in the form of self-driving cars, trucks, vans, boats, planes, drones, and humanoid robot. Every single one of these systems are INSANELY VALUABLE to Amazon's logistics business. There is a world where Amazon can essentially automate its ENTIRE end-to-end model with self-driving cars/trucks/planes/boats, that are loaded/unloaded/warehoused/delivered with humanoids, autonomous forklifts, & autonomous robots - all of it orchestrated by a super-advanced AI brain that oversees the whole system to ensure there are no gaps anywhere. That means that Amazon's ability to scale this solution will only be limited by the number of ROBOTS they can deploy - not humans they can hire. Tesla becomes a HUGE winner from this, because they are one of the few (only) players that can supply fully automated systems (transport, humanoids) at scale. I'm sure Amazon will also explore building their own, but I don't think they'll be able to outcompete Tesla at this - they'd be way better off buying from Elon. This means that the cost to do any of this work long term as these systems mature will very quickly approach 0. The cost of transport & warehousing will be so cheap, that almost-anyone will be able to operate a business that would require this service. Not only that, but it will very likely open up entirely new industries that are currently cost-prohibitive from a logistics perspective that will become possible due to the deflationary effect this will have. SUPER impressive and exciting move. We are living during one of the greatest explosions in entrepreneurship opportunity in human history.

@jbulltard1 x.com/farzyness/stat…

I love how hyped everyone is about amazon's new business line but hate to break it to you $FDX & $UPS combined aren't worth $200 billion. So while it is cool and exciting its like how Tesla bulls get excited about self driving being worth trillions when $UBER + $LYFT are nothing

I have seen a number of naive posts about being long and "just put in a stop (stop sell limit) and stop worrying." Tell me you have never been in a market that has a MASSIVE GAP OPENING LOWER where your stop sell limit price is left dangling far above and you are forced to sell to Kenny G "at the market" by your local margin clerk... 🙄🤨🤔😳😱🤮🤯

1996: Jim Carrey didn’t act, didn’t tell jokes… he just did the head dance and instantly became a legend. Still cracks me up every rewatch 😂😂

@jbulltard1 bruh you sold at THE worst possible time. Happens to all of us. Best to move on though and use those smarts and energy on smthg else... or just load up the truck on next inevitable amzn dip ;)

“Always keep going. The storm eventually ends.” — Kobe Bryant

OpenAI is building a smartphone where AI agents replace every app on your home screen. Qualcomm and MediaTek are co-developing the chip. Luxshare is assembling it. Mass production targeted for 2028. The pitch: no more app grid. No more switching between 40 apps to get one thing done. You talk to an AI agent. It handles flights, messages, calendar, payments, research. One interface. No tapping. The pitch is not the problem. The pitch has never been the problem. Humane built the AI Pin around the same idea. Launched, flopped, discontinued. Rabbit built the R1. 100,000 pre-orders. Five months later, 5,000 active users. 95% abandonment. Both promised to replace apps with intelligence. Both died within a year of shipping. The reason is the same every time. Apps aren’t just apps. They’re ecosystems backed by 15 years of muscle memory. Every airline runs its own booking system. Every bank runs its own authentication. Every retailer runs its own checkout. An AI agent doesn’t replace those systems. It has to negotiate with all of them simultaneously. That’s a coordination problem, not an intelligence problem. And coordination problems don’t get solved by making the AI smarter. OpenAI’s argument for why they succeed where others failed: control. By owning the hardware and the OS, they bypass the restrictions Apple and Google impose on third-party AI. Full sensor access. Continuous context. No gatekeepers between the model and the user’s entire life. That logic is real. But it has a hole. What does this phone do in 2028 that an iPhone running ChatGPT won’t already do? Apple is being forced to open its platform. By 2028, every major AI model will have deep system-level access on existing phones. The gap between “ChatGPT on iPhone” and “OpenAI’s phone” may be invisible to the person holding it. So why build it? The answer isn’t the phone. It’s the data. The smartphone is the only device that continuously captures your complete context. Location. Communication. Health. Finance. Behavior. Every moment, all day. Whoever owns that data pipeline owns the most powerful AI training signal on the planet. The phone is the Trojan horse. The data is the prize. You don’t need to wait until 2028 to build agent-style workflows. The tools exist now. Claude with MCP. ChatGPT with plugins. Custom GPTs. n8n automations. The phone OpenAI is designing is a packaged version of systems you can assemble today with the right thinking and the right prompts. The future of AI isn’t a new device in your pocket. It’s a new layer on top of everything you already use. Stop waiting for hardware. Start building the agent layer yourself.

@hussmanjp Yup dilution like mad

This is the kind of thing you see in a bubble just before the lights go dark

@Shaun__Furman Bingo. Next up are chips+robotics as a service.

This seems important. End to end logistics as a service.

@FluentInQuality For sure. And now supply chain offered beyond amzn walls follow AWS, Ads, with chips and robotics versions of AWS next... Crazy

$AMZN has a wide moat. But it's not one moat. Retail: —> Largest retailer in the world by GMV: $800B+ in 2024 —> 60% of goods sold through third-party marketplace —> Negative cash conversion cycle — gets paid before it pays suppliers —> Product searches start on Amazon more often than Google —> Prime at $139/year locks in the stickiest consumer base in retail AWS: —> 15–20% of revenue. Majority of total operating profit. —> Switching costs so brutal that core cloud providers are almost never changed —> Pioneer advantage with a lead Microsoft has spent a decade trying to close —> Data egress fees create a structural lock-in on top of integration costs Advertising: —> Likely the highest operating margin segment in the entire portfolio: 30%+ —> Proprietary data on hundreds of millions of users at the exact moment of purchase intent —> Growing rapidly as an alternative to Google and Meta ad spend Prime drives retail. Retail drives advertising. Advertising funds AWS investment. AWS funds everything else. The wide moat for $AMZN is greater than the sum of its parts.

$AMZN just declared WAR on UPS and FedEx by launching Amazon Supply Chain Services, which opens logistics to all businesses. - 100+ cargo planes ✅ - 80,000+ trailers ✅ - 24,000 intermodal containers ✅ - Warehouse network that took 30 years to build ✅ - AI-powered inventory forecasting ✅ - First customers: P&G, 3M, American Eagle ✅ $UPS: -10% today 🩸 $FDX: -10% today 🩸 Let me explain why this isn't a logistics story. This is an AWS moment. Amazon built the world's greatest supply chain to serve itself. Then realized the infrastructure was worth more than the product. So they sold it to everyone. $AMZN AWS started as Amazon's internal server farm. Now it's a $100B business. Amazon Supply Chain Services just did the EXACT same thing. With trucks, trailers, and cargo planes instead of servers. UPS and FedEx had 100 years to see this coming. They saw it. They did almost nothing. This is the Blockbuster vs Netflix moment for logistics. Except Netflix didn't have $500B in infrastructure already built and paid for. Save this tweet. 📌 $AMZN $UPS $FDX

Amazon is still the most underrated stock in the Mag 7 and if you're sleeping on it, you're about to miss the next AWS moment (Save this). Every few years, Amazon does something it has only done a handful of times in its history, it takes a capability it built for itself and opens it up to the world. The first time it did this, it created AWS, a business now running at a $142 billion annual revenue rate, growing at 24% year over year, printing 35% operating margins, and projected by CEO Andy Jassy to hit $600 billion in annual revenue by 2036. What started as Amazon's internal cloud became the backbone of the internet and today, it's doing it again, this time with logistics. Amazon just launched Amazon Supply Chain Services opening its full freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping network to any business on the planet. And the early signups are P&G, 3M, Lands' End, and American Eagle Outfitters. These are some of the most operationally sophisticated companies in the world, and they're handing Amazon the keys to their supply chains. The proof of concept was already there. Since 2006, independent sellers shipped more than 80 billion units through Fulfillment by Amazon and sellers using Amazon's end to end logistics see nearly 20% higher sales. Amazon took that model, battle tested it across hundreds of thousands of businesses, and now it's offering it to the entire $1 trillion global 3PL market, a market projected to hit $2.1 trillion by 2032. Now here's why the stock is still underrated, Amazon is trading at a P/E of 32.7x on a market cap of $2.9T. That multiple barely prices in what's already in the building, AWS re accelerating, advertising crossing $50 billion plus and gross margins expanding to 50% in 2025 and this doesn't price in ASCS at all. This is a company that just opened a new enterprise logistics revenue line targeting a trillion dollar market, and the market is treating it like nothing happened. The financials back the bull case hard, FY2025 revenue hit $716.9B , up 12.4% year over year. Q1 2026 came in at $181.5B in revenue with EPS of $2.78, 74% above the consensus estimate. Milk Road now see $810B in revenue for FY2026 and the earnings machine is not slowing down. The capex spend $200B in 2026, looks scary on paper but it's the same bet Bezos made with AWS in the early 2000s. Build infrastructure nobody else can afford to replicate, then monetize it for decades. Every dollar Amazon is spending on robotics, AI forecasting, and logistics density is making the same network it just opened up to enterprises cheaper and faster to operate. That's operating leverage compounding in real time and this is exactly why Milk Road analysts remain bullish on Amazon. AWS is accelerating into the AI supercycle and sitting on $244 billion in contracted backlog, ASCS is a multi year enterprise revenue unlock that is just getting started. We've already started building a significant position and is up on it massively. If you want to see exactly how we're sizing it, what we're buying, and our full thesis, come join us. Link in below!

@DividendTalks Same for AWS+Ads+Logistics+Chips and Robotics next x.com/InvestWithDeni…

$AMZN may have just launched its next AWS-style business. Amazon built one of the most advanced logistics networks on earth to serve itself. Now it is opening that network to everyone else. Freight. Distribution. Fulfilment. Parcel shipping. 7-day delivery. P&G, 3M, Lands’ End and American Eagle are already signed up. The same playbook as AWS: Build infrastructure internally → scale it → sell it to the world. This is why Amazon is not just retail, cloud and ads. It is becoming infrastructure for commerce.

Amazon’s AI Chip Momentum Could Power the Next Move Higher - sigmanomics.com/amazon-jumps-2… $AMZN $MSFT $WMT $SPY

@D_web17 Yeah I get it for options buyers and day traders fades are frustrating. I am long until 450-500 no rush. GL

@jdonovan42 Nah…it’s already cut $5 of gains and for people with call options all of this just killed prems and the hope that was bubbling up from the spike earlier

To give that much up that fast within seconds? $AMZN This blows

@_inpractise Perishable customers shop 2x as often, and growing 30x since early 25'. "In-store" didn't work out so now they using central(climate ctrl) ctr's. for more effective logistic. Prime members expect same day/1 hr as table stakes.

$amzn grocery now moving to same-day fulfilment centres - will be interesting to see the order economics Fresh and WFM online weren't great

@D_web17 Markets went red amzn dropped but still holding up much better for now

@jdonovan42 Same shit different day…somehow today it matters 🥴

Exactly. 2025: Ads left Amazon.com → $AMZN selling purchase data to non-Amazon sites 2026: Logistics left Amazon.com → $AMZN shipping for $SHOP $WMT sellers 2027-28: Compute leaves AWS → selling robot warehouses + chips as a service It's not a retailer. It's infrastructure in 3 acts.