Frederic Jacobs 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇱🇨🇭

Reporter: Why didn't you tell allies about the war before attacking Iran? Trump: We wanted it to be a surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?

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Q: "Why didn't you tell U.S. allies…about the war before attacking Iran?" President Trump: "We wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"

What has this war done to US military competitiveness with China? In my view, it’s been devastating. Here’s why: 1. The US has consumed years worth of production of key missile interceptors and standoff weapons. These will take a lot of money and a lot of time to replenish. And at the end of those years of replenishment, the US will stand exactly where it stood at the beginning of this war. Meanwhile, China would have accumulated years of additional offensive SoWs, missiles and drones. The disparity between Chinese offense and American defense will grow significantly. 2. This war demonstrated the actual, practical interplay of Chinese and Russian high resolution orbital imagery and targeting assistance, with cheap Iranian drones. And it has been remarkably effective. These tactics and all the learning from their employment will be available to China with three distinct advantages. First, China has much greater industrial capacity to build drones. Second, they will have a tighter kill chain as imagery, targeting and kinetics would all be controlled by China. Third, the interplay of these tactics with the significantly more sophisticated Chinese offensive and defensive capabilities will make the threat orders of magnitude more potent. 3. To many observers, US equipment comes across as “not the future” in very distinct ways. Many Arab leaders are already asking whether the bases and equipment were supposed to protect them, or if they were supposed to protect the bases. This sentiment should not be discounted, and it will hurt exports and sales for sure. Who will benefit? China and Türkiye. The fact is that cheap Iranian drones blowing up $1.1B radars and THAAD subsystems on video cannot be ignored. Domestically-manufactured surface to air missiles shooting down $32M drones cannot be ignored. Neither can civilian trucks launching ballistic missiles produced en-masse. Is the “massively expensive, exquisite platform” approach really the future? 4. The Iranian strategy of Mosaic decentralized defense is very instructive for China and many others. It is human ingenuity overcoming the challenges of sophisticated EW, intel, and other adversary advantages. If US EW is superior, or if US intelligence is superior and can degrade command and control, how do you respond? This war has presented a practical template which I’m sure will be refined further. 5. Wearing my AI hat, this war has been a dataset goldmine for China. You’ve seen the public, mizar vision imagery. That’s impressive already. But what you haven’t seen is the Chinese military’s far more impressive multi-spectral imagery of live ops. And the electronic intelligence they have undoubtedly built while watching F-35s, F-22s and various US munitions - including new ones, such as the “stealthy” black Tomahawk - in action. This data isn’t just for human learning any more, it will also be collected to build automated (anomaly) detection and threat classification models. The structure of ops will also be broken down into discrete states and used to train predictive time series models. Much more to be said on this topic, but this suffices for now.

Et devinez qui a enregistré hier un épisode (pour diffusion demain) sur la confrontation entre l'Iran et les monarchies du Golfe ?