Fruuho

People ask him what happens when his stocks drop.

@BobLoukas Nobody knows if STRC will work, but calling it a Ponzi is lazy. Products can fail without being frauds. This is transparent enough that bias seems to be doing the work here.

$STRC Market demanding a lot more yield to fund this Ponzi.

@IIICapital I wonder...if hedge funds can make easy short term money here with billions of capital, and they still are not bidding, is there a larger structural issue at hand?

Will $STRC return to par by 2027?

@_Adrian Adrian, curious how you think about this... if STRC and SATA are both BTC linked prefs, why is SATA sitting near par while STRC looks broken? What is the market treating differently?

$MSTR | $ASST | $STRC | $SATA: There are many are sounding the alarm on $STRC and with the success of $SATA are also pushing for them to go daily. 1. That would be a reactionary mistake. 2. $ASST is 1/40th the MCap of $STRC, easier for it to move. 3. These offerings are $BTC Derivatives first, prefs second and what's causing them to move may not really be tied to dividend frequency. Details in the thread below:

@pete_rizzo_ This is one of the biggest traps: If BITA NAV has already shrunk from distributions, return of capital, & capped rebounds, then the 70% uncapped sleeve is applied to a much smaller base...This will destroy the return the longer someone stays in the product.

JUST IN: $14 TRILLION BLACKROCK JUST TOLD BLOOMBERG $BITA WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF INSTITUTIONAL MONEY INTO #BITCOIN “DEMAND FROM CLIENTS HASN’T STOPPED” INVESTORS CAN NOW "MONETIZE YIELD ON DIGITAL GOLD" BILLIONS LOADING FROM THE SIDELINES NOT PRICED IN 🚀

@AdamBLiv When STRC raises, do you think SATA will need to raise their rate as well?

STRC is now down to $93.19. Market pricing the effective yield at 12.33%. The rate is going to be raised.

@diglloyd Because STRC can go to zero...that little detail sleeps at the foot of your bed every single day.

Why buy this shit when you can buy $STRC and $SATA? Hilarious. They'll find half a million suckers for sure.

@nithusezni Bitcoin stays strong because even a small group can stop bad changes.

The ability of the intolerant minority to defend bitcoin is a key feature to its antifragility. Attacks will most easily recognized as loosening the rules. Since a soft fork narrows the rules it is easier to activate than a hard fork. Critics will call this a bug, but it is a feature, not a bug precisely because soft forks tend bitcoin in the direction of conservation. To loosen the rules you need overwhelming support which make sense since it has the capacity to expand bitcoin's attack surface. Bitcoin's antifragility is hardened by the ability of a minority to successfully defend bitcoin. #bip110 #knots

@JoshMandell6 Where is the bid supposed to come from? Every marginal dollar seems to be chasing AI right now.

Bitcoin will not long remain stable with respect to any other coin in the world.

@AdamBLiv Hey Adam... been steelmanning this to figure out where the bear case actually has teeth. Coverage math survives. But what about mNAV premium collapse in a drawdown ending the accretive issuance flywheel? Genuinely curious.

“Oh, Bitcoin needs to go up 3% percent year for Saylor to pay the dividends forever? But that’s based on today’s obligation! He will issue more STRC and he’ll have to pay more dividends! I will continue to ignore the fact that the obligation doesn’t compound but the Bitcoin purchased does!” All of the mathematically illiterate MSTR bears will not present the doom scenario math to you because it would make them look comically stupid. “Bitcoin is the future base layer of money… but there’s no way it can outrun a 3% ARR!”

@JoshMandell6 What was the driver to sell STRC and where did you move that capital into?

All Done, except for the options exercises. $MSTR $ASST

@JoshMandell6 Are you not worried all these AI IPOs drain liquidity from crypto? SpaceX now, then maybe OpenAI & Anthropic later. Everyone’s chasing AI because money goes where it’s treated best. So where does the marginal buyer for Bitcoin come from?

The current trend price for Bitcoin as provided by power law is just above the all time high. The bottom price is only approximately 10% below the recent low of $60,000 per coin. Expecting new lows below the bottom price is like declaring the entire correlation between Bitcoin price and time to be spurious. Good luck with that.

@AdamBLiv You’re right on asset coverage. I don’t think the issue is Strategy missing a dividend 32 years from now. If STRC can’t hold near par, new issuance gets harder and the funding machine weakens. Stable income shouldn’t trade like stressed credit.

STRC is falling to $95. Strategy has 32.5 years of dividend coverage in Bitcoin. Strategy has 6.3 months of dividend coverage in cash. On average, Strategy raises one month worth of dividend payments every trading day. The effective yield here is 12.09%. The dividend is getting paid. NFA but IMHO this could easily be a ~5% gain in less than two weeks.

@JoshMandell6 Saylor created the digital asset category, but from here are we really betting on portfolio management, not just conviction?

In finance, duration measures a security's sensitivity to interest rate changes. It shows how much the price will move if rates shift by 1%. Higher duration means greater price volatility. If you want to target the money market industry, you really have to reduce the historical price volatility to a number less than one half percent. STRC has traded below $99 Strategy needs to keep it 💯

@AdamBLiv You know, sometimes you come up with some real bangers...had me at yellow squash 😂

Watched a 71-year-old man in a Vietnam veteran hat scan his own groceries at Walmart while a sign behind him said "We're Hiring!" with a balloon taped to it. T his man stormed a beach so the Federal Reserve could print his pension into confetti. He should be fishing. Instead he's troubleshooting the produce scale because it can't tell the difference between a banana and a yellow squash. Buy Bitcoin.

@AdamBLiv Why do you think Metaplanet has been under performing compared to ASST...clearly your not worried as your buying more 💪.

X Payout Bitcoin Hurdle Rate Portfolio Challenge #11 I am now officially beating Bitcoin by +66.07% YTD. My X earnings were $1,180 and I TRANSMUTED IT into 641 shares of Metaplanet $MPJPY. The stock is DEEP VALUE right now, much like ASST was back in February. Adding more here. I have now invested $13,858 in X payouts this year and my portfolio is now worth $21,237. Invested this year: $13,858.30 Current value: $21,327.23 Dollar gain: +$7,468.93 My return: +53.89% BTC YTD: -12.18%

@hillery_dan What makes you think this time is different?

Four year cycle is dead -Dan Hillery

@JoshMandell6 MSTR holders don’t need a price alert anymore. They need a therapist for 1.22.

1.22 is the new 1 $MSTR

@AdamBLiv Do you think its worth the risk compared to buying spot ASST?

🚨HOW TO OUTPERFORM BITCOIN BY 3X AND OUTPERFORM MSTR BY 2X🚨 I found the most deranged way to express the Bitcoin bull case without personally levering my house, my dog, and my remaining emotional stability. The trade: Buy the MSTR Dec 2028 $275 call for about $6,200. Yes. A call option on Michael Saylor’s publicly traded Bitcoin refinery, funded by preferred stock, wrapped in CEBE math, floating through the fiat hospice ward like a radioactive orange hearse. Here’s the setup. Bitcoin is around $76,500. Strategy owns 843,738 BTC. MSTR trades around $165. Strategy has roughly: $8.25B of debt $15.48B of preferreds $2.25B of cash Net senior claims: $21.48B. Using CEBE, you subtract the senior claims from the Bitcoin stack because common shareholders do not economically own the whole pile. They own what is left after the capital structure’s velvet-rope vampire lounge gets paid. At today’s BTC price, those senior claims equal about 280,824 BTC. So Strategy’s common equity has claims-adjusted exposure to roughly: 562,914 BTC. That is the real common equity Bitcoin base. Now here’s where the trade goes full financial Chernobyl. Assume Strategy issues $2B/month of STRC for 30 months. Think that's a bullish assumption? Hardly. They issued MORE THAN THAT during both April AND May. This is BEARISH. Correct... this is assuming STRC growth SLOWS DOWN. Over the 30 months until your option expires, that is $60B of new preferred stock. They use it to buy Bitcoin every month while Bitcoin moves linearly from $76,500 to $250,000 by Dec 2028. By the way, that is $110,000 UNDER the Bitcoin power law fair value. ANOTHER bearish input. That $60B buys about 409,437 BTC. So Strategy’s stack grows from: 843,738 BTC to 1,253,175 BTC. (they'll have close to that a year from now actually, LOL) But the new $60B senior claim, at $250k BTC, equals only: 240,000 BTC. That means the $60B STRC machine buys 409,437 BTC, while the claim against common is only 240,000 BTC by the end. Net new common CEBE created: 169,437 BTC. That is the whole game. Saylor borrows in fiat-brained preferred stock, buys apex collateral, waits while the dollar claim shrinks in Bitcoin terms, and common shareholders get the spread. It is like taking out a mortgage on a burning retirement home and using the proceeds to buy Manhattan before the zoning board discovers fire. Now model the outcomes. Bitcoin goes from $76,500 to $250,000. BTC return: 3.27x (+227%) MSTR, under the CEBE model with the same current claims-adjusted multiple, goes from about $165 to about $886. That's correct... ZERO multiple expansion: MSTR return: 5.38x (+438%) Already disgusting. Bitcoin buys you the orange ark. MSTR buys you a seat in the engine room with a man in a suit converting preferred shareholders into escape velocity. But the option? The Dec 2028 $275 call costs about $62/share. One contract costs $6,200. Breakeven: $337. If MSTR hits $886, that call is worth: $886 minus $275 = $611/share. Contract value: $61,100. Return: 9.86x (+886%) So in this model with BEARISH ASSUMPTIONS: Bitcoin goes 3.27x. MSTR goes 5.38x. The call goes 9.86x. That means the option outperforms Bitcoin by roughly 3x. And outperforms MSTR common by roughly 2x. This is the financial equivalent of discovering the casino built a second casino inside the first casino and the fire exit is priced as a long-dated derivative. STRC is basically Saylor saying: “Give me your fixed income money, I will buy Bitcoin with it, and if the monetary system continues behaving like a raccoon trapped in a Federal Reserve air duct, my common shareholders keep the upside.” The option is the most violent version of that thesis. You are not buying Bitcoin. You are not even buying MSTR. You are buying a long-dated claim on the possibility that: Bitcoin goes to $250k (under power law fair value) Strategy keeps issuing preferred stock (slower than they already are) The market keeps valuing MSTR at a premium to claims-adjusted BTC exposure The fiat system continues speedrunning late-stage empire cosplay Risks? Obviously. If BTC underperforms, the preferred stack becomes a fat guy sitting on the common equity’s chest. If MSTR premium compresses, the option gets its teeth kicked in. If volatility collapses or timing fails, the Greeks drag you into the alley behind Robinhood and harvest your organs. This is not a safe trade. This is not a retirement plan. This is not financial advice. This is financial entertainment. This is a leveraged bet on Saylor turning the preferred stock market into a Bitcoin particle accelerator before the fiat priesthood realizes the altar is on fire. But if the model is right? BTC: +227% MSTR: +438% MSTR $275 Dec 2028 call: +886% That is how you potentially outperform Bitcoin by 3x and MSTR by 2x. Welcome to the preferred era. Please keep your arms and legs inside the capital structure at all times.

@chamath It has...but why would I do more work when I can get then job done in half the time and spend more time with my family.

With the 30y peaking and the little nugget below, what could go wrong??

@hillery_dan If STRC moves to 12%, does Strive need to bump SATA too? If investors are taking similar BTC backed risk, they’ll compare yields. Why take the extra risk if the payout doesn’t keep up...thoughts?

Part of the reason STRC is selling off is because of the sheer volume of new issuance last week. It will take a little bit of time to work through supply. Over the coming months I expect this dynamic to force Strategy to raise the dividend to 12%. 1% per month.