Ali Arab

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Ali Arab

Ali Arab

@GUStatProf

استاد آمار دانشگاه جورج‌تاون؛ پژوهشگر و فعال حقوق بشر. Statistics Professor @Georgetown; HumanRights Researcher; BoardMember @hostageaid; Science posts @rabalia

Washington, DC Katılım Nisan 2018
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
With or without you this will happen. You can choose to be on the right side of history.
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Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert
Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert@KMooreGilbert·
The idea that you would just accidentally get added as a coauthor on a paper written with IRGC commander and current Speaker of Iran's parliament @mb_ghalibaf is fanciful. Oops, you also brought his son Eshaq to Australia to study at your institute, oops you were also a visitor to Ghalibaf Snr's research institute back in Iran too. All a coincidence, nothing to see here @unimelb theguardian.com/australia-news…
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
زلزله ۴.۳ ریشتر در نزدیکی تهران
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Khosro K Isfahani
Khosro K Isfahani@KhosroIsfahani·
Under the guise of "stabilizing" the forex and gold prices, the Iranian regime plans to pump gold bars into the market on Sunday. Average Iranians can't afford gold bars. Is someone making their assets easy to transport?
خبرگزاری فارس@FarsNews_Agency

عرضه گسترده شمش طلا در روز یکشنبه 🔹مرکز مبادله: در حراج روز یکشنبه که سومین حراج سال جدید است، شمش طلا به‌صورت گسترده عرضه می‌شود. 1/2

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Amnesty Iran
Amnesty Iran@AmnestyIran·
Two months on, 90+ million people in Iran are still cut off from the internet amid an internet shutdown imposed by the authorities. Meanwhile, officials from the Islamic Republic keep using the internet freely. Access to the internet is a human right; it must be restored NOW!
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
@RoKhanna On Iran, your problem is not having a moral backbone to separate Iranians will to topple the brutal IRI regime from partisan politics. You failed the Iranian-Americans in your community.
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Ro Khanna
Ro Khanna@RoKhanna·
A pro-Iran war, pro-regime change candidate funded by billionaires is running against me. I have had guts to be anti-war, anti-Epstein class, pro-working class. I need your support. secure.actblue.com/donate/sm20251…
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
Amnesty International calls on states to stop predatory, anti-rights order from taking hold in pivotal moment for humanity amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
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F.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli
Last night, Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills, was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport for trafficking arms on behalf of the government of Iran. She is charged with a violation of 50 U.S.C. § 1705 for brokering the sale of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan. If convicted, she faces a statutory maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison. Mafi is an Iranian national who became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in 2016. She is expected to make her initial appearance on Monday afternoon in U.S. District Court in downtown L.A. She is presumed innocent until proven guilty in court.
F.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli tweet mediaF.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli tweet mediaF.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli tweet mediaF.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli tweet media
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
I agree with all the points but the first one. On the contrary, regime favors prolonging the war as they know it puts internal pressure (political and economic) on Trump. This is part of their strategy to get out of this without conceding their strategic leverage points (enrichment, missiles program, etc).
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
I don’t know what has been presented in the White House, but this is the adversary status I would present, with one important Takeaway - At this stage, the most important requirement for U.S. policy is strategic realism about what the use of force can still achieve against Iran. 1. Iran’s leadership is not interested in prolonging the war, but it believes it holds an advantage in a “pain tolerance” competition vis-à-vis the United States and the international community. 2. Threats of force are unlikely to produce meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is expected to hold firmly to the red lines it has maintained from the outset. 3. Maritime pressure will not compel Iranian capitulation. Absent an agreement, it is more likely to lead to direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Interdictions of Iranian shipping may accelerate escalation, but not surrender. 4. The current Iranian leadership will not give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, support for its regional network of proxies, or its strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Limited strikes will not alter this trajectory. Tehran is not easily swayed by signaling. A broader campaign against Iran’s civilian infrastructure could severely damage its economy, but would almost certainly trigger wide-scale retaliation, particularly against energy infrastructure across the Gulf. 6. Without regime change, which would require a dramatic U.S. investment in time, resources, and political will, these core dynamics are unlikely to shift. 7. Decision-making in Iran is becoming more fragmented and hardline, increasingly shaped by the IRGC. This makes coherent compromise more difficult than in the past. 8. What Iran did not concede before or during the conflict, it is even less likely to concede now, regardless of military pressure or blockade measures. 9. In the absence of a deal, escalation is not a risk, it is the default trajectory. Iran is already preparing for it, including efforts to rebuild and reinforce its missile capabilities. 10. To date, even successful operational achievements have not meaningfully changed Iran’s strategic calculus. Paradoxically, the campaign has weakened Iran economically, but strengthened the regime internally, especially among the regime supporters. +1 The administration seems to have two main options: a framework agreement broadly resembling the previous nuclear deal, Or a wider escalation would impose massive economic costs on Iran, but rather than restrain it, it could drive a significant expansion of its escalatory actions. #IranWar
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🇺🇸🇮🇷A U.S. official said the situation room meeting was attended by: 🚨President Trump 🚨Vice President Vance 🚨Secretary of State Marco Rubio 🚨Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 🚨Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent 🚨White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles 🚨White House envoy Steve Witkoff 🚨CIA Director John Ratliffe 🚨Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine

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CBS News
CBS News@CBSNews·
Iranian authorities have sentenced to death four more people, including a woman, over last January's protests. cbsn.ws/4cpIVtx
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NetBlocks
NetBlocks@netblocks·
X poll, 2026 edition: should social media companies suspend the accounts of governments and officials who shut down or censor the internet?
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
No matter what your politics are, you should be outraged by this. You should also ask yourself what is the Islamic Regime in Iran afraid of? Why is the exchange of information so threatening to the regime that it has implemented the longest internet shutdown on the record? #DigitalBlackOutIran
NetBlocks@netblocks

⌛️ Network data show #Iran's internet blackout is now in its 44th day, continuing in its seventh week past the 1032 hour mark. The human and economic impacts of the extended censorship measure continue to pile up, breaking global records for shutdowns in a connected society.

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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
@PeteHegseth The body of water you are referring to is Persian Gulf.
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Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth@PeteHegseth·
USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM

x.com/i/article/2042…

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Brett McGurk
Brett McGurk@brett_mcgurk·
Confirmed—USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM

x.com/i/article/2042…

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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
Good move to weaken regime’s leverage at the negotiation table. May not be a long term resolution and I suspect there will be confrontation if negotiations fall through (which I believe it will). Btw it’s the Persian Gulf. @brett_mcgurk
Brett McGurk@brett_mcgurk

Confirmed—USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

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Amnesty Iran
Amnesty Iran@AmnestyIran·
People in Iran have lived under digital darkness for 1000 hours. Authorities have cut off 90+ million from the outside world since 28 February, preventing people from accessing essential information and contacting loved ones. Authorities must immediately restore internet access.
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
@lrozen @eghtesadnia As one of the main architects of regime's foreign policy (esp re the nuclear program), Kharrazi has been a leading strategist for decades. For a regime that functions based on a closed circle leadership this is a major loss.
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Laura Rozen
Laura Rozen@lrozen·
@eghtesadnia I genuinely dont understand why Israel would have targeted a retired diplomat for assassination.
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ساسان
ساسان@eghtesadnia·
Iranian diplomacy lost a great man tonight 😔
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Ali Arab
Ali Arab@GUStatProf·
@hesamodin1 بله قدرت هوش مصنوعی در یادگیری ممتد است.
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Brett McGurk
Brett McGurk@brett_mcgurk·
Keep it simple: is the Strait completely open or not? As of this morning, it’s not.
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