Luca Gambardella

Commentary from @BashaReport: Yemen-based Houthis used a single missile strike as a signal, not a full move into war. It lets them restart military action without getting pulled into a wider fight with the U.S. or Saudi Arabia. The message is clear. Their main focus is still the Palestinian cause. By striking Israel, they are telling people in Yemen, their partners in the Iran-backed network, and supporters abroad that their priority has not changed. Their direction stays fixed on Israel first. At the same time, they are signaling to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that they are not targeting them, at least for now. This move is deliberate. It puts them back in play without forcing an immediate large response. That is what they are betting on. Israel may ignore it for now and stay focused on Hezbollah in Lebanon and tensions with Iran instead of opening another front. The next step is more likely to focus on commercial shipping, not U.S. naval targets. Disrupting traffic in the Red Sea, the Bab al Mandab Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea creates pressure without crossing a line that could trigger a direct U.S. response. After that, the scope could widen to include Gulf states. For now, the hope is that this remains a signal rather than the start of a broader escalation. But they may be overlooking the longer-term risk. Israel has a pattern of delayed responses that focus on leadership. A decapitation campaign could come sooner or later. Even if it takes time, it would likely target senior figures rather than expand into a full-scale war.

@GambLuca x.com/i/status/20372…

Okay, I am confused. What tankers? @MarineTraffic does not show a fleet of tankers passing through the Strait since March 25. JMIC also does not have those numbers in their daily report.

A Misurata ci si prepara per l'esercitazione Flintlock 2026, con il coinvolgimento tra le altre di forze dell'est, dell'ovest, americane e italiane in programma ad aprile

Once again the Houthis' message to Iran is something like, "I would do anything for you, but not this time"

HOUTHIS TO THE SAUDIS SHOW ME THE MONEY! While Iran has sent clear signals that the Houthis could enter the war and threaten maritime routes like the Red Sea and Bab al Mandab, the message from Mahdi al-Mashat, the de facto unelected Houthi president, was more restrained. Speaking on the 11th anniversary of the US-backed, Saudi-led military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, launched on March 26, 2015, he aligned with Iran but again stopped short of any military commitment. There was no declaration of joining the war, no timeline, and no direct escalation threat. His position stayed at the level of support. He said, “I affirm our standing alongside the Muslim Islamic Republic of Iran and supporting its right to self defense in the face of the American Zionist aggressor,” and warned, “if you will not be an aid in thwarting this project, then do not be a tool in carrying it out.” Instead, the focus turned to Saudi Arabia. The tone shifted from regional alignment to a blunt demand. In effect, show me the money. He said, “we will wrest all of their rights in full, without any diminution,” and made clear that patience is running out. He called for concrete steps, including ending the war, lifting the blockade, withdrawing foreign forces, and addressing compensation and reconstruction. Even as tensions rise, his message stayed political, not operational.

General Jim Mattis, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and CENTCOM commander: “Hitting 15,000 targets means nothing without a real plan,” and called the demands for unconditional surrender and regime change “absolute delusional nonsense.” This has been my main point of criticism since the beginning of the conflict. There is no way for the U.S. and Israel to wage a quick war against a country like Iran. In the long term, the trend points toward a progressive depletion of long-range precision-guided munitions, which will result in greater exposure of forces. This will occur at the same time as Iran continues to deploy more advanced air defenses. This situation is unfolding in parallel with a growing shortage of interceptors, while Iran keeps launching missiles. However, the leaders of Israel and the United States cannot simply end the war empty-handed, a situation made worse by the demands imposed by Iran. They will therefore risk everything on a limited ground invasion, attempting to seize key installations that could force Iran to negotiate. The major obstacle is that these specific regions have developed a sophisticated, layered system of defense and counterattack over decades, strengthened since the war with Saddam Hussein.

People in Saudi Arabia are playing the buzzing sound of Iranian Shahed drones as a prank.

🇱🇾🚢 Libya Secures Drifting Arctic Metagaz Tanker After Weeks Adrift in Central Mediterranean gcaptain.com/libya-secures-…

Contro la flotta ombra di Putin l’Europa sequestra, l’Ucraina colpisce. Lezioni dall'abbordaggio della Marina francese alla Deyna nel Mediterraneo ilfoglio.it/esteri/2026/03…

The USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Crete after leaving the Middle East when a fire broke out onboard, sending over 200 sailors for treatment. But the incident highlights deeper problems: Despite costing $13.2 billion and entering service in 2017, the carrier still has unresolved issues with key systems like aircraft launch, radar, and weapons elevators. The Pentagon says there isn’t enough data to confirm its combat effectiveness. The ship has also been deployed longer than usual — about 9 months — raising concerns about strain on both equipment and crew. Source: Bloomberg

Ukraine 🇺🇦 sea drone hit LNG carrier ARCTIC METAGAZ 🇷🇺 spotted TODAY being towed 32 km off Lybia at 33.2759, 12.1010 located by @SONARROW_OSINT Severely damaged she´s being towed to a safe zone off Zuwara. Mellitah/Eni salvage ops aim to mitigate environmental liability.

⚖️ La Ligue des droits de l'homme a obtenu qu'un juge d'instruction soit bientôt saisi pour enquêter sur l'eurodéputé RN Fabrice Leggeri, ancien directeur de Frontex, soupçonné de complicité de crimes contre l'humanité et de torture, a indiqué une source judiciaire ⤵️

The Libyan Ministry of Defense has successfully boarded the damaged Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz and secured it to a tugboat dispatched from the port of Misrata. The vessel is now under Libyan control and is being towed away from the coast to eliminate any potential threat to Libyan territorial waters and coastal areas.

Update on the Sharara–Al Rayayina corridor: As maintenance teams began clearing the lines and draining residual oil, evidence confirmed a deliberate sabotage attempt. A 250 kg explosive device was recovered yesterday. Today, further indicators suggest additional devices may still be buried beneath the valve area. Operations have been immediately suspended. The Petroleum Facilities Guard has secured the site, with EOD units, counter-terror teams, and the Attorney General’s office expected to intervene. NOC, Akakus, and all operators will not proceed under conditions where undetected explosives may remain in place. This development reinforces earlier warnings: Libya’s energy infrastructure is facing sustained, multi-layered pressure — not isolated incidents.

This is probably the fist time in years that Egypt mediates beyond Gaza. Significant. @axios: "A U.S. source said Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing messages between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days." "Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty had called on Sunday with Witkoff, Araghchi and his counterparts from Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said, adding that Abdelatty stressed the importance of "containing the broader effects of the conflict and preventing it from expanding."

Day 81 of 2026

Over a hundred of JNIM militants freed by the Malian government in exchange for free passage of fuel tankers presumably until the end of May, according to Serge Daniel via TV5MONDE.

The FT now reporting that, even without the energy shocks, there's a pretty good chance that the closure of Hormuz will pop the AI bubble and lead to a stock market crash