Garden State Weather

K.C. & The Sunshine Band (Shake, Shake, Shake) Shake Your Booty - 1976

HRRR more in line with NAM for snow changing to sleet by 2pm for Toms River area, HRRR had it holding off until 4pm previously. Drops 3/4-6” before sleet at 10:1 for SNJ, so a bit more due to onset high ratio #NJwx

1st half of December has been cold! Here's a look at the Avg temp departure from normal. Top 10 for some of us. Coldest in 20 yrs

If you Want Snow: THIS IS LOOKING BETTER 📣 This is the UPDATED European Model following the GFS in my prior post. 👍 The Big News Here: AGREEMENT! 💪 THIS IS NOW CLOSER WITH MODERATE SNOW - AND-STRONGER Than The GFS! 🚫 Friday: NOT the main event. Not much to see there now. ✅ Sunday Morning: THE MAIN EVENT ❄️ This is our SNOW DAY! 💻 ECMWF Model View ⏰ 7 AM Sunday: MODERATE SNOW 👉 THIS ALSO Looks like a jet streak pulsing a Lee side trough East of the Mountains. 🌡️ Temps closer to freezing, but support for a snow event. Colder air aloft will help even if surface temps are marginal. 📏❄️ Snow Potential for A FEW INCHES. Tomorrow we enter the window of comfort for legitimate numbers. 🐻‍❄️ The Polar Vortex will follow will VEYR COLD AIR. 🌀 The Trough Axis shows a "Positive Tilt", which is a faster mover... but the orientation supports snow to reach up the coast into Southern New England as it pivots through. >L< Low Pressure in this scenario will develop rapidly off the coast to allow the enhancement. ‼️ This is NOT set in stone. What like here is the similar product from the ECMWF and GFS after the recent variants. ⏰ We are in a 4-day window, making this more viable. ALSO, the attention for you planning: More attention away from the first clipper Friday and on to this. 👀 Stay tuned. I will update the Western Maryland Blizzard in a bit. #mdwx #snow #FITF

❄️ GLOBAL MODELS CATCHING ON TO SUNDAY SNOW POTENTIAL… The GFS — which previously had a “much ado about nothing” type setup for Saturday night into Sunday — is now coming around on accumulating snow. The EURO is also coming in much juicier with this system. 📊 Below are the last 3 GFS runs, all showing an accumulating snow scenario very much in play. 📝 Latest thoughts here: pix11.com/news/local-new…

I'll get to forecasting in a minute....I need some time to process and not put my fist through a computer screen.

Reminding myself to never get too excited too soon, but an event poss coming together within 3-4 days ;) #NJwx

Monitoring the potential for light accumulating snow to impact NYC from Saturday evening into Sunday. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of the system. Stay tuned! 👀❄️

Good morning! While most of the region will have some rain by later today, some snow/ice is expected across parts of eastern PA and northwest NJ. Some uncertainty for the I-78 area as it will depend on how quick the precipitation arrives through today. #pawx #njwx #mdwx #dewx

They don't make cartoons like this anymore🔥

It wont be as cold as it is now, but the northeast will most likely not get any long duration warmth.

Here is the fundamental problem with social media weather. Some of you overreact to some long-range model data and go to the extreme, either expecting a cold pattern with 50 blizzards or 60s and rain all winter because of a single run or two. What you guys don't do is ask a fundamental question: WHY is the model showing what it is showing? Now, many of you can't because you don't have the education yet. So, let me provide something to ponder. Considering the weather pattern we are in now, what atmospheric factors would cause the cold weather pattern we are in now to fundamentally change? When you can answer that question, then you won't need to overreact to every model solution that comes along every six hours.

The Night Before Christmas (1933) came out 92 years ago today.

Wild look at cold anomalies the next several days. Purple is cold. Pink is real real cold. Couple blobs dipping and clipping the US back to back. Warmer temps are staying on the western side for awhile. And look at Alaska. Some real cold air sticks around there. Negative double digits towards Christmas. Brrrrr. spaghettimodels.com

❄️🧊 Some light wintry precip is possible for portions of E PA and NW NJ Wednesday morning before changing to rain. A light glaze of ice could cause some slippery roads, especially across the Pocono Plateau where 1-3" of snow is also forecast. Elsewhere, all rain is expected.

12z Data is rolling in... I have my eyes on these 3 areas: Area 1: A combination of strong Frontogenesis, orographic wind alignment, and high Snow to Liquid ratios will produce over 1 foot of snow on Southerly Facing Slopes, Area 2: Deep Cold Air and good dynamics keep it all snow. Confidently Plowable Totals. Area 3: Surprise! This is where the battle zone between snow and a mix is. If you stay all snow here, you could end up with some surprisingly high totals for a weak storm system. Laporte will likely get buried while Mount Pocono mixes back and forth between snow and sleet ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage #wxtwitter #wxX #PAwx #NYwx #snow