@aleabitoreddit The largest companies in the US are trying to move away from rare earths but the demand is still increasing rapidly
That is quite a setup for some of the most important suppliers
Normally this goes in shower thoughts but will post main timeline today.
$ALOY - Rare earth powders -> high-purity metals. Magnets used in the liquid cooling pumps
$NB - Scandium, lightweight metal frames for server racks.
$UURAF- Separation of rare earths.
$ARA - Upstream feedstock for magnets
$MEI - IAC deposit outside of China.
$NTU - hard-rock heavy rare earths
These are all more under the radar stuff like sub <$1B.
Then for robotics supply chains I made this earlier:
$UUUU - Processes monazite sand into high-purity Neodymium
$MP - Extracting bastnäsite at Mountain Pass and vertically integrating into domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing.
$ALOY - Converting heavy rare earth oxides into defense-grade alloys and high-temperature metals like Samarium and Gadolinium
$USAR- Process heavy rare earth elements and manufacture sintered NdFeB magnets
$LYSDY -(Lynas Rare Earths Limited) - Only commercial producer of separated heavy rare earth elements outside of China.
$NEO -(TSX): They are the only Western company commercially producing the actual NdFeB magnetic powders and alloys at scale right now.
$ILU- (rare earths refinery): rare earths refinery for Australia
$ARU- (ASX): "Ore-to-oxide" NdPr facility 2. Structural Metallurgy (Niobium, Vanadium, Titanium, Beryllium) $ATI - Dominant US producer of high-performance titanium and specialty alloys required for robotic joints. $CRS - US supplier of specialty structural alloys, including the high-strength steels, titanium, and magnetic
$FCX - World's largest producer of Molybdenum, which is strictly necessary for the structural steel in planetary roller screws.
$NB - Critical pure-play company developing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, aimed at supplying domestic Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium
$MTRN - Major global processor of Beryllium
$LGO - Leading publicly traded processors of Vanadium
$BMM - Onshore supply and processing for like Germanium and Gallium
$VNP - Gallium, Germanium, and Indium for advanced sensors and electronics
$TECK - Most significant producer of Germanium outside of China
$ALB - Lithium extraction
$EAF - High-purity Graphite for battery anodes
$ALTM - Western lithium required to supply the batteries
$SYR - Balama mine for Graphite
$FCX - Humanoid requires up to 6.5 kilograms of copper $AW1 (ASX): Advancing the West Desert project in Utah, for domestic geological sources for high-grade Gallium and Indium
I'm aware of a lot of more... It's just some are a little dangerous to mention geopolitically in case I broadcast vulnerabilities to geopolitical adversaries reading this (looking at you $AXTI)
If you're going long on a western one 5n my favorite.
Image source: Crossdock Insights, Visual Capitalist
FYI this is not the pandoras box stuff.
Just name dropping some interesting names informally before finishing up some research on a specific long idea.
Critical elements required for semiconductor packaging and others close to near-total import reliance
-> so prob influx of funding going toward it.
Just informal thoughts
We firmly believe there are ongoing US-Iran "peace deal" talks right now:
Why? Because we have seen this EXACT sequence of events MULTIPLE times in previous deals negotiated by President Trump.
In fact, the May 2025 China trade deal followed the exact same timeline.
On April 24th, 2025, just 15 days after the "90-day tariff pause," which also came as the 10Y Note Yield soared above 4.45%, President Trump made similar claims about China, and China responded like Iran just did.
Trump said China was interested in a "trade deal" with the US, and China responded stating that "there are absolutely no negotiations between the US and China."
Just 3 weeks later, on May 12th, 2025, the US and China announced their first trade deal, reducing tariffs to a 30% baseline.
We believe a similar situation is happening right now with Iran, behind closed doors.
As Iran's war strategy has become to play the “long game” and pressure the US/Israel through capital and energy markets, Iran does not want to lose leverage and allow markets to normalize until a definitive deal has been solidified.
This is the same exact form of leverage that China had in April 2025 negotiations, which they initially denied, as the 10Y Note Yield broke above 4.50% and US equity markets collapsed.
We believe Trump is following the same playbook now.
That said, volatility will persist until there is a clear agreement in place, and broader market normalization after this historic shock will take months.
Pattern-based trading has become incredibly profitable over the last 12 months, and we continue to update our models as a result. Bookmark this post.
Keep following the patterns.
“I need you to lock in… I believe in you but you got to want this moment.“
Coach: Eye contact, reaffirming confidence while giving criticism
Player: Eye contact, listening, responding
This is some good coaching and credit to the player being coachable!
Yeah, you're not alone—scoured X and saw multiple reports today of iPhone alarms going silent under iOS 26 (shows on screen, no sound). It's a known recurring bug. Quick fixes: bump ringer volume up 1 notch in Settings > Sounds & Haptics (zero now mutes alarms), restart phone, or check for iOS update. Others say it helps.
Has anyone else had issues with $aapl’s alarm clock recently? It has randomly gone silent on me a few times? @grok can you scour this platform for recent reports/info?
@TheMagicAnswer@AmericusEagle@MarioNawfal Do you have a link to any of these? Gonna go in there and threaten to beat all of them with a pillowcase full of dicks, candy or rocks - whichever I can get my hands on first
🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: A plane just collided with a firetruck on the runway at LaGuardia, NY.
The airport is closed.
The American aviation system was already at its limit.
LaGuardia just found the next one.
If you don't remember:
$AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models.
-> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids
-> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier).
But...
Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar?
The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial.
Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI.
One highly possible mapping:
-> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics.
Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.
I’m sorry but this just isn’t gonna happen and I’m not sure if this is just a marketing ploy by AI CEOs to drum up business/funding or something else. On the retail side, the amount of puffery regarding current AI capabilities is astounding. I mean Claude code, for instance, can’t just create what we’ve seen displayed all over X with “a simple prompt.” And all these CEOs and paid advertisers largely ignore the fact that LLMs are by, default, people pleasing hallucinating machines. On the enterprise side, I would venture to say a handful of companies at best have fully adopted AI at scale and those companies have sophisticated IT teams or outsource it to sophisticated third parties. Then we also have the reality that at some point, as with a technology that is developing this quickly, there will be massive societal resistance as white collar jobs continue to be cut. No President will ever ever want unemployment reaching all time highs under his watch. Now, if the state and federal governments were to pay for AI training, then maybe we have a different story. And finally, the American Bar Association and state supreme courts aren’t going to approve of something that cuts 50% of its workforce not only because it is a highly regulated industry but also because licensure and bar association membership directly equates to $ for those governing bodies.
One of the more obvious outcomes of the Iran war is going to be far greater awareness of how problematic the pace of US military manufacturing is.
The National Defense Industrial Strategy Hesgeth put forward in January already advanced this idea.
I think Iran has shown that the situation was even more dire that was thought. And what's more - it makes the problem glaringly evident and non-hypothetical to the entire world.
I am not high conviction that $DDD is the best way to play this theme. But at the moment it seems like it could be more convex than other stuff. Other ideas?
x.com/peonyKingOF/st…
@pennycheck What do you think it would take for Iran to stand down at this point? Either Russia or China intervening and instructing Iran to do so? The fact Iran deployed long range missiles on Friday to try to attack a joint USA-UK base 2500 miles away is telling on so many different fronts
@peonyKingOF Anytime I have a question regarding anything defense related, there is only one man to ask - @BlackScholesMan!!
Mike, my guy - do you have any strongly (or loosely) held opinions on the role DDD plays moving forward?
Happy Friday all!
- The US Pentagon is considering sending more troops to the Middle East, according to Politico sources who stated the size and scope of additional deployments are still evolving.
- Saudi officials see the base case for oil to rise to USD 180/bbl if the disruptions persist until late April, according to WSJ.
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued but with downside limited as the region reacted to the recent oil swings, deluge of central bank meetings and mixed geopolitical headlines, while conditions were thinned with the absence of Japanese participants due to the Vernal Equinox holiday.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7%, after the cash market closed with losses of 2.1% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI (Feb), UK PSNB (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan), PPI (Feb). Speakers include ECB's Nagel. Credit Rating Update with Scope Ratings/Morningstar DBRS on France.