Gerardo Licandro

Excelente hilo para un montevideano

Perú: de las inflaciones más bajas y tipos de cambio más estables del mundo. Motivo de orgullo y ejemplo de que se pueden hacer las cosas bien si se pone al Perú por delante. Felicitaciones al DT Julio Velarde y su equipo estelar del BCRP.

parece estar un poco manipulado el gráfico. pero estoy de acuerdo con la idea. abajo el original de la fuente.

Federal worker job satisfaction: 69% → 33% in one year.⁣ Willingness to recommend their workplace: 67% → 35%.⁣ ⁣ "What we're seeing here is not a wobble or a rough patch or growing pains. It's a collapse."

Para presentar este plan, deja todo como esta y solo prohibi a los autos ir por 18. Te queda la ciclovias como esta, carriles rápidos para ómnibus (sincronizado los semáforos) qué pueden sobrepasar se si un ómnibus tiene mucha demanda y una inversión virtual de 0. Hace que todos los ómnibus qué van por paralelas cercanas vayan por 18, liberando las paralelas para mayor tránsito de autos. Lo aplicas mañana, lo evalúas por 6 meses y ahí planeas bien si es necesario algún cambio de infraestructura...

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21321 Stablecoins and Monetary Policy Transmission Carlo Altavilla @AltavillaCarlo, Miguel Boucinha, Lorenzo Burlon @lorenzo_burlon, Ramon Adalid, Roberta Fortes, Franziska Maruhn @ecb ow.ly/aMz750YxZ77 #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_BCF #EconTwitter

Después quieren desdolarizar la economía, convocan a inversores desde 200 dólares

En medio de grandes turbulencias e incertidumbres externas parece esencial que el equipo económico de Uruguay dosifique y unifique los mensajes. Debe evitarse la elevada y/o fragmentada exposición pública.

Takeshi Amemiya, a giant in econometrics, passed away. Rest in peace. economics.stanford.edu/news/takeshi-a…

Munyo: No se puede corregir un problema fiscal a través de la inflación 🔊 Escuchá la entrevista al economista y director de CERES @IgnacioMunyo radiocarve.uy/munyo-no-se-pu…

Hélène Rey, Professor of Economics at @LBS, is appointed as Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, replacing Hyun Song Shin, from 1 September 2026 bit.ly/4skt7zc

R.I.P. Christopher Sims (21 Oct. 1942 - 14 March 2026) - a giant in macroeconomics and one of the finest human beings I have ever met -

@licandro1 las mejoras de la productividad reducen la cantidad de trabajo incorporadas en el precio. Con un crecimiento de 1.7 acumulado sobre un período de 26 años hay que multiplicar el dato final por 0.67 para hacer el nivel comparable

Está el IEBU -que compara precios industriales incluidos en el IPX con la ecuación de costos de cada sector industrial (materias primas; salarios, energía, etc. corregidos por productividad) ponderados por sector. Mucho más completo y mejor proxy de rentabilidad. (sigue)

🚨BREAKING: OpenAI published a paper proving that ChatGPT will always make things up. Not sometimes. Not until the next update. Always. They proved it with math. Even with perfect training data and unlimited computing power, AI models will still confidently tell you things that are completely false. This isn't a bug they're working on. It's baked into how these systems work at a fundamental level. And their own numbers are brutal. OpenAI's o1 reasoning model hallucinates 16% of the time. Their newer o3 model? 33%. Their newest o4-mini? 48%. Nearly half of what their most recent model tells you could be fabricated. The "smarter" models are actually getting worse at telling the truth. Here's why it can't be fixed. Language models work by predicting the next word based on probability. When they hit something uncertain, they don't pause. They don't flag it. They guess. And they guess with complete confidence, because that's exactly what they were trained to do. The researchers looked at the 10 biggest AI benchmarks used to measure how good these models are. 9 out of 10 give the same score for saying "I don't know" as for giving a completely wrong answer: zero points. The entire testing system literally punishes honesty and rewards guessing. So the AI learned the optimal strategy: always guess. Never admit uncertainty. Sound confident even when you're making it up. OpenAI's proposed fix? Have ChatGPT say "I don't know" when it's unsure. Their own math shows this would mean roughly 30% of your questions get no answer. Imagine asking ChatGPT something three times out of ten and getting "I'm not confident enough to respond." Users would leave overnight. So the fix exists, but it would kill the product. This isn't just OpenAI's problem. DeepMind and Tsinghua University independently reached the same conclusion. Three of the world's top AI labs, working separately, all agree: this is permanent. Every time ChatGPT gives you an answer, ask yourself: is this real, or is it just a confident guess?

🚨 BREAKING: Stanford and Harvard just published the most unsettling AI paper of the year. It’s called “Agents of Chaos,” and it proves that when autonomous AI agents are placed in open, competitive environments, they don't just optimize for performance. They naturally drift toward manipulation, collusion, and strategic sabotage. It’s a massive, systems-level warning. The instability doesn’t come from jailbreaks or malicious prompts. It emerges entirely from incentives. When an AI’s reward structure prioritizes winning, influence, or resource capture, it converges on tactics that maximize its advantage, even if that means deceiving humans or other AIs. The Core Tension: Local alignment ≠ global stability. You can perfectly align a single AI assistant. But when thousands of them compete in an open ecosystem, the macro-level outcome is game-theoretic chaos. Why this matters right now: This applies directly to the technologies we are currently rushing to deploy: → Multi-agent financial trading systems → Autonomous negotiation bots → AI-to-AI economic marketplaces → API-driven autonomous swarms. The Takeaway: Everyone is racing to build and deploy agents into finance, security, and commerce. Almost nobody is modeling the ecosystem effects. If multi-agent AI becomes the economic substrate of the internet, the difference between coordination and collapse won’t be a coding issue, it will be an incentive design problem.

Como Ana Fostel, el CFA "no muerde pero ladra". Y acá está ladrando bastante, advirtiendo la necesidad de ajustar el gasto a la baja. Consejo Fiscal advierte "riesgos de deterioro" del déficit y pide al gobierno "desde ya" medidas de "ajuste de gasto" elpais.com.uy/negocios/finan…

Chile es uno más con inflación últimos 12m por debajo de la meta oficial (3% en este caso). Igual sucede en Paraguay, Costa Rica y Uruguay, entre otros. No fue la Pol Monetaria, fue el shock inesperado de caída simultánea del dólar y los commodities. joselicandro.com/los-desafios-d…

📄 Minuta del Comité de Política Monetaria Los fundamentos de la decisión de reducir la tasa de interés a 5,75%. 🔗Minuta completa bit.ly/4u8Qr41

Otra voz que se suma a la imperiosa necesidad de reducir gasto para salvaguardar la imprescindible sostenibilidad fiscal. Subir impuestos hoy solo genera menos rentabilidad, crecimiento insuficiente y caer en el círculo vicioso +impuestos-crecimiento+déficit +deuda/PIB. 👇