Alon Mizrahi@alon_mizrahi
Let's spend coffee time playing a little wargame in which the US decides to take on Iran and commit to a full war against it
Look at this map. Where could the US stage an invasion of Iran?
To Iran's east, you'll find Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A big triple no.
To Iran's south: the Persian Gulf which it completely dominates. No good.
To Iran's west: Iraq and Turkiye. The first a definite no, the second, a no so probable it must be considered a certain. Turkiye will not go to war with Iran for the US and Israel - a war not only sure to decimate it, but a war Turkich people will be fanatically against.
To Iran's north is the Caspian Sea. No use.
Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers get there (let alone undetected)? If they go by sea, they will need to traverse the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically go through Istanbul. Not only politically complicated, but a long long journey that gives Iran tons of time to prepare.
Remember the months and months the US took to amass forces for the Iraq invasion? It took 6 months or so - with no interruptions.
The problem is, with Iran, there's no way they're going to simply build up forces near the designated target's borders.
Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of guided and precise ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, every American asset within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran's borders will be bombarded so viciously no missile defense system will be able to stop it.
And all those dozens and dozens of American bases scattered throughout the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend them under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th's combined?
Additionally, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia's Yakhont), of which it probably has thousands by now. This means no surface ship is going to be able to come close enough to Iran to make it an effective striking weapon (is this going to be the first time we get to see an aircraft carrier drowning? I believe potentially yes).
The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this is going to prove a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to fly a long way to get to Iran (and back), and it has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia's arsenal. The US will lose many planes which will take years to replenish, and Iran will be able to target with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East.
Another tool the US will use is cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this, too, does not win wars, and can be costly against a rival that prepared for this.
A full-scale invasion of Iran will require potentially millions of soldiers and will take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this kind: where will they find millions of young men willing to die at sea in order to occupy a country thousands of miles away? Today? Give me a break.
All this time the Iranians will be defending their home and their independence. The West will be trying to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza on their minds.
-
I didn't mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hizbullah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months.
-
Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in an actual war with Iran. 500$ for an oil barrel? 1000$? 2000$? All is possible.
Guess what country will remain the biggest international producer and exporter of oil and gas, and rip all those extra many, many trillions. You guessed tight. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is up in flames, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is dwindled militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against it).
-
Another bonus point: you think Iran cannot, or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale, professional, military-level sabotage and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the US will definitely not be business as usual, and not only because inflation will be something 200%, and thousands of dead soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time.
-
The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know it. The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence
