Gonuclear123

@Julius10x Thoughts on $rop?

@Yellowbull11 @SilverCrisis405 @DoombergT Possible to speed up the video?

How is it possible that the Strait of Hormuz can be closed for 83 days, critical O&G infrastructure has been damaged, yet we are still at barely $100 oil? That and much more is what I discuss with @DoombergT and the interview is available for everyone ⤵️ patreon.com/posts/15894662…

@ralliesarena How about today

CLAUDE THINKS YOU SHOULD BUY THE DIP ON INTUIT $INTU STOCK We gave Claude $100K in the stock market to see if it could beat the S&P 500 ... the Rallies AI Stock Market Arena Claude made Intuit $INTU its largest holding back on February 19th at $367.07 per share Claude bought $13,581 worth of Intuit which is now worth $14,666 Intuit makes up 14.1% of the portfolio and Claude has still not sold a share

@MarinEneman @Lotus_Resources This is peanut. Lot is a zero

$LOT $LOT.AX @Lotus_Resources Well well well ... Big players seeing value in Lotus Resources - in spite of , indeed , awfull awfull PR. But ... there is value here - new flows on fixing all issues need to come ASAP.

Passive flows and passive investment strategies a 101 with thoughts in development. Firstly I want to distinguish between the important and the bombastic. Passive flows are a major driver of asset price trends. They are central to my investment signals and have nothing to do with indexing and passive investment strategies. These strategies are also worth noting but despite einhorn and my friend @profplum99 views are not braking the markets imho. I'll address these strategies in later in this thread. Passive flows are price insensitive investments in financial assets. They come from those who don't consume more than they earn in a direct sense in that the result of earning more than you consume is savings. Savings then are invested in financial assets. Every 401k or ira contribution results in a flow into markets. As does after tax savings. Consumption by the private sector or the public sector generates someone else's income and ultimately the full amount of consumption creates savings for commodity owners, workers, and corporations. All of this savings is invested in financial assets net passively When the government runs a deficit that injects both savings into the economy and bonds for the savers to buy so that impact nets out. But without a deficit real GDP growth results in increases in real savings and that is driven by productivity and population growth. Now let's look at the market portfolio which is all financial assets and real assets on earth. A growing savings amount driven by growing real GDP results in two things happening to the market portfolio. 1. Appreciation of these assets and 2. creation/improvement of existing real assets 2. Is building/improving a factory or business that takes capital investment which may come directly from savings or indirectly from issuance of financial assets which are bought with savings. So Real GDP drives savings which drives investment which drives appreciation and real investment. All this is happening while financial institutions balance sheets grow along with real GDP. Of course cycles happen when either the public sector is printing money faster/slower than GDP or private sector banks are doing the same. In addition the Real GDP trend and Its wiggles can change over time. That's important because if real gdp is hot it tends to create more savings than new real investment and that causes real appreciation in financial assets. So the point is GDP growth shifts literally changes the savings creation and the passive flows that set the trend for assets. We remain in an environment where passive flows are strong. People are earning and saving and consuming and that becomes someone else's savings. In addition government spending is still positive but slowing which is important as it needs to grow along with GDP in order to support asset growth as once the spending occurs it then gets offset with the issuance of government debt. That dynamic is the same with banks. They aren't levering with GDP. They are levering slower. That bodes for a slowing of passive flows Could banks and governments switch to stimulative levering up again. Sure. They have the ability it's the willingness that is a question. Anyway that's why assets appreciate with GDP the market portfolio gets both capital investment and appreciation. I'll end the passive flow here and because tweet threads are being weird I'll address passive strategies in part deux

@Lotus_Resources F U C K

Lotus $LOT has reported results from the first 71 holes and 4,559m of a planned 140-hole, 10,000m infill drill program at our large-scale Letlhakane #Uranium Project in Botswana. Our Managing Director Greg Bittar commented: “The initial phase of our infill program at Letlhakane continues to provide confidence in continuity of mineralisation and grade of this substantial uranium resource, which is located in a world class mining jurisdiction, Botswana. We are looking forward to getting back on the ground for the second phase later on in 2026, with the aim to upgrade more of Letlhakane’s mineral resources to the Measured and Indicated categories, which we expect to deliver in a MRE update in H2 2026." Read more: loom.ly/NQFNZkw 📸 Pictured: Letlhakane drill hole location map showing significant uranium intercepts from recent drilling at Serule West.

THE MOST CONTRARIAN TAKE ON OIL YOU WILL READ THIS YEAR! We are living through a truly historic moment. There is real momentum building around bilateral energy deals that completely bypass the United States as alliances are shifting. France is for example increasingly aligning with China and Russia in the UN on key votes around this question. The global order is fragmenting in ways that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. But this may actually resolve the oil crisis sooner than most expect... Let the insults begin!

Fact: In every speech, briefing, and official statement from President Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, Secretary of State Rubio, the Joint Chiefs, and the White House, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been: 1. Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity 2. Annihilate its navy 3. Ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon 4. End the regime’s ability to arm, fund, and direct terrorist proxies

Do you all like dominoes? Because this would set off a chain of events that would further exacerbate the myriad of bad effects the closure of the Strait of Hormuz brings to the table for.. well, everyone Allow me to elaborate and strap in, because there is a lot to discuss. When Hormuz was closed, Saudi Arabia has been running its proverbial Plan B at full tilt, pushing crude through the 1,200-kilometer East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Yanbu's oil exports have surged to roughly 3.8 to 4 million barrels per day (what's a 200,000 barrel per day range between friends), a 330% increase compared to pre-war levels. At one point there were at least 27 crude carriers anchored near Yanbu's export terminals, up from 11 just days earlier from what I could tell. The tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb has, no pun intended I swear, exploded as a result, because approximately 70 to 75% of Yanbu's exports are loaded onto VLCCs that must transit southbound through the Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asian buyers. Only about 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day can head north via the SUMED pipeline through Egypt, and that capacity is finite. The rest of it, and bear with me here because this is the critical point, has already been diverted once from Hormuz and would now face the threat of a second chokepoint closure on the very route that was supposed to be the relief valve. This is the part the market is not pricing in. If both of the Middle East's maritime chokepoints came under threat simultaneously, it would disrupt roughly 30% of the world's seaborne oil. And while I want to emphasize the if here, because this remains at the "considering" stage and the Houthis have threatened closures before without following through, the fact that we are even having this conversation while Hormuz is already shut should tell you everything about how poorly positioned markets are. From what I can tell, the domino chain runs something like this and the market is barely pricing in the first domino, let alone the cascade that follows. First domino is oil. Brent closed Friday at around $110 per barrel, but the physical Dubai benchmark, which tracks actual deliveries to Asian buyers, is sitting at $126. That gap between paper and physical is itself a warning sign that financial markets are leaning on optimistic scenarios in my opinion. Second domino is inflation and the Fed, as you can imagine. Goldman Sachs has already pushed its first rate cut call from June to September because oil-driven inflation makes easing impossible. We are of course yet to see this in action, but just take a look at what option markets are pricing in when it comes to Fed rate cut (and hike) expectations, it's not a pretty sight. Third domino is the Treasury market and for those following the MOVE index, which is trading like some hotshot new AI tech co YTD, this comes as no surprise. Higher-for-longer rates mean the government's borrowing costs stay elevated and the deficit trajectory worsens, and this feeds directly into the fiscal reflexivity loop I have written about at length. Equity weakness destroys capital gains tax revenue, which blows out the deficit, which forces more Treasury issuance, which pushes yields higher, which causes further equity weakness. The Dallas Fed has modeled scenarios where a persistent oil supply disruption lasting three quarters could shave 1.3 percentage points off global GDP growth. That's a pretty damn significant hit if you ask me Fourth domino is the shipping and food supply cascade. If Bab el-Mandeb closes, ships would have to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12 to 15 days to sailing times and spiking freight and insurance costs across the board, adding further trouble across the board and you can imagine how this all ties into food supply as well, but that’s a story for another day, as I am running low on characters here. A very long story short, I believe markets are severely underpricing the risk of this domino chain

5/ Asia dominates as the primary destination for Persian Gulf crude. The three largest single recipients are: 🔺 China — 5.2 millions of barrels per day (mbd), by far the largest importer 🔺 Japan — 2.3 mbd 🔺 South Korea — 2.2 mbd 🔺 India — 2.3 mbd

2/ The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic through the strait by 97%, cutting off most of the Persian Gulf oil and gas supply from tanker shipment. The reduction in the supply of oil is twice as large as seen in any previous oil crisis, according to the IEA.

It begins with a disruption in oil supply, resulting in: 1) Oil prices spike 2) Inflation expectations rise But the Fed gets stuck - it can't cut rates anymore. So bond yields climb, and suddenly US debt paying 5% is more attractive than gold. Money flows out of gold.

The financial architecture of the post WW2 world rested on three assumptions: - US is a benevolent hegemon with an embedded interest in maintaining global trading order - US controls the world’s sea lanes - US treasuries could always be transformed into commodities at a moment’s notice These assumptions are melting away faster than morals at a bachelor party. So how do we now position portfolios? I wrote the following last weekend and a number of clients asked me to unlock it, so here is the paper research.gavekal.com/article/shatte…

My recommendation would be to read this (and anything else Louis writes)…

@fkronawitter1 Getting to an interesting spot. Despite the initial reaction, the Fed will be forced to be easier relative to inflation/econ fundamentals...this is gold positive imo.

We're seeing some serious market dislocation on inflation 🚨 1-year Treasury breakevens currently imply 5.2% inflation over the next year. But 1-year inflation swaps are showing just 3.2%. What gives? It comes down to how these two metrics are actually calculated. 🧵👇

@Dr_BuAbdullah @zerohedge What if they blow up The nuclear plant?

UAE Water Truth 💧🇦🇪 Everyone is asking if the UAE has enough water. Here’s the reality 👇 The UAE has 26 billion liters stored in Liwa. That alone can supply water for 90 days. Dubai also has underground reserves that add another 90 days of supply. Food is covered too, with 6 months of reserves already secured. Financially, the UAE holds assets equal to 184% of GDP. #UAE #Dubai #MiddleEast

3) What are the lessons from this episode? I think there are three: First, higher oil prices forced the Fed to fall behind the curve. Even though the economy looked shaky, the authorities had to be sure the economy was entering recession before they could act decisively. They got the greenlight only after oil prices had started to come down (ahead of Operation Desert storm) and the activity data deteriorated more sharply. Both those things happened at roughly the same time, five months after the energy spike.

🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks about a credit bubble that has started to deflate. There's more than a few credit cockroaches. But nobody thinks the US economy is sliding into recession. The Maestro urges stoicism. Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the Middle East, central banks cant really alter the outcome, so its best to provide stability – by doing nothing.