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Julius
1.2K posts
Julius
@Julius10x
Voice of sanity. Christ is Lord.
Denmark Katılım Ekim 2022
659 Takip Edilen219 Takipçiler
SaaS companies are not getting the respect and the love especially when it comes to $RDDT.
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@DeepValueBagger Strategy investors will go down in the history books for having the smoothest frontal lobe
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@CarsonTalkMoney There products are shit and everyone hates their subscription model - it's basically impossible to get out of. Only reason they are still relevant is because marketing departments in large dinosaur corporations are so entangled with Adobe in their ways of working.
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It’s hard to justify holding $ADBE, when it has underperformed my overall portfolio nearly every single week for the last year
One of my core investments thesis was a re rating of the business, but I don’t see that happening at this point
They will continue to put up solid numbers and do massive buy backs, but no one wants to own them
Every single quarter I have owned them earnings have been great, but Wall Street says the company will get hurt by AI next quarter
$IGV was up 2.81%, there is 0 reason $ADBE should underperform this bad
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Honestly, I don't know Roper inside and out, but from what I gather, their playbook is basically identical to Constellation Software.
I actually think these holding companies of high-margin vertical SaaS are way more vulnerable right now than the horizontal platforms I mentioned in the article. Because the TAM for these hyper-specific niches is so small, the software itself is usually legacy tech that is becoming incredibly cheap to replicate.
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@Mr_Derivatives Axon, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, TTD, Intuit are no-brainers
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One or a few of these names will be the next $INTC and 3-5x from here…
Renewed optimism born from maximum pessimism.
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@ConsensusGurus Gotta give it to the people who made money on it, but if you enter $RKLB now you're retarded
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This is hard R retarded
Jack Kuhr@JackKuhr
There ya have it. Rocket Lab ($680M revenue biz) market cap meets Northrop's ($43B revenue biz).
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Do not listen to this take. It's retarded.
Coinvo Trading@CoinvoTrading
🇺🇸 ANTHROPIC IS ABOUT TO IPO AND IT COULD LITERALLY CHANGE YOUR LIFE. In 2004, $GOOGL went public and had you put in $10,000, you would've had $1.83 million now. AI is giving you the same chance this year but with Anthropic. If it follows the same 10-year trend, you will become a millionaire. Do not miss your second chance.
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@HolySmokas Like the Salesforce and ServiceNow play but there's some smaller market cap, really high quality SaaS you might want to consider - Veeva, Intuit, Xero? Maybe it's also time to throw in the towel on PayPal
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Yea. Space stocks will crash 90-95%.
Jack Kuhr@JackKuhr
There ya have it. Rocket Lab ($680M revenue biz) market cap meets Northrop's ($43B revenue biz).
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@SafetyIsBoring It's not a 0.01% error rate. If it ever gets there it will be so wildly expensive that people won't buy it. Just see Claude opus 4.7 - it's literally 15x the price of any standard model and it's still semi retarded
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It’s toast at this price point. 0.01% error is less than an individual (including a CPA, etc.) would do on their own, which is why it’s already absorbed into the wiggle room of tax filing regulations.
And it will only get better. What’s the difference between an LLM with a 0.0000000001% error rate and a premium product with a 0.00000000001% error rate?
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People saying AI will kill $INTU don't understand software.
Bookkeeping requires a deterministic system. LLMs are probabilistic. A 99.99% accurate LLM is useless if the 0.01% error gets you audited.
AI won't replace Intuit; AI agents will use QuickBooks and TurboTax as their underlying engines because the tax code & rules are already hardcoded there - you can't vibe-code it - requires domain knowledge, handling of niche cases, regulatory guard rails put in place etc.
The doom narrative on this earnings call is dead wrong.
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Listen to these posts
Paul Mit@pmitu
Everyone's building AI agents. Nobody's building AI agents that actually work.
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$900,000+ in profit just crossed on AMD in public account. You having fun or what?!
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I can't stand this guy. Will have to switch to Composer 2.5
NIK@ns123abc
mythos won't go public until a competitor makes a mythos-tier model public
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@cryptogoos Looking forward to buying the company at $500B market cap
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Okay this is getting CRAZY.
SpaceX pre-IPO is closing in on $1,000 a share.
Elon Musk is about to become the world's first MULTI-TRILLIONAIRE.
Let that sink in.
Not a millionaire. Not a billionaire. Not even a trillionaire.
A MULTI-TRILLIONAIRE.
He owns roughly 42% of the equity.
79-85% voting control depending on share class.
This IPO will be WILD.
Follow me to stay up to date.
CryptoGoos@cryptogoos
This is INSANE! 🇺🇸 ELON MUSK IS ABOUT TO BECOME THE FIRST TRILLIONAIRE IN HUMAN HISTORY. SpaceX pre-IPO is closing in on $900 a share. Elon owns roughly 42% of the equity. 79–85% voting control depending on share class. At this price, he doesn't just cross a trillion. He blows past it. The world's first trillionaire is about to be minted in real time.
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@DarioAmodei Why am I paying 15x token cost for this in Github CoPilot? Literally just wasted $5 on nothing. Stop being greedy, give me access to what I am paying for. This is actual bullshit
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WIX just did $112.3M in adjusted FCF in the previous quarter. Assume they don't grow (they will) that's $449M per year. At today's market cap (~$2.3B), the whole company is trading at 5x FCF.
But here's the sum-of-the-parts: They also have Base44. It went from $100M ARR to $150M ARR in a single quarter. Slap a reasonable multiple on that 50% QoQ growth (since it's exactly the AI/app-building story Wall Street loves but doesn't know exists yet), and Base44 is realistically a $2B standalone company.
Subtract that from the market cap, and the market is pricing the rest of WIX - a growing, massive cash-cow - at roughly $300M. You are essentially buying the core business for less than 1x FCF.
Should probably 4x from here if wall street isn't retarded and only sees things in absolutes, but who knows. Probably goes lower before it 10x.
Not financial advice.
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If you have half a brain you buy anything that rhymes with SaaS.
$WIX - you think barbers, cafe owners, plumbers, local photographers etc will vibe-code? Answer is no - they want no code solutions, they don't want to deal with payments, databases, hosting etc. + They also have base44
$INTU - so assume I run a startup, it's growing really well. Here's a good idea: let me just vibe-code my own accounting software 🥴
$CRM / $VEEV - you will never ever create your own CRM system, whether you're in a general business or life science.
$WDAY - why would I ever create my own ERP when there's already people doing it well.
Important to mention that of the 5 shares I mentioned 4/5 are founder led (not intuit). These guys are not retards like the analysts covering their stocks. They built multi billion dollar companies, they know how to adapt, they've done it before.
This time is no different.
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@tibo_maker At what point do you start spending money on ads? My Company is growing naturally and after 5 months I'm at 4000 visitors/month organic - considering ads. My conversion rate is shit though so not sure they will pay for themselves
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If your favorite defense stock survives on X hype instead of actual revenue, you aren't investing. You're holding the bag.
Retail thinks buying $ONDS etc is a genius contrarian play. It's not. It's garbage.
The DOD only allocates capital to battle-tested, deterministic hardware. They aren't going to field a drone just because the pitch deck looked cool. That's why $AVEX $AVAV and $KTOS get the actual contracts while the bottom tier dilutes their shareholders into oblivion.
Stop funding these PR machines with your gambling degeneracy.
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