Wait times this morning at JFK are much longer than represented on the website. PreCheck was about one hour. This is Jet Blue Terminal 5.
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InvestmentGuy
1.3K posts
InvestmentGuy
@GoldmanAdvisor
Independent thoughts on the markets and current macro investment themes.
New York, NY Katılım Ağustos 2012
1.7K Takip Edilen592 Takipçiler
@JasonrShuman Put another way the software industry is a $2T global market and labor is $30T. Software is eating labor thanks to AI. The growth opportunities are exponential.
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Coatue just put a number on what we’ve been seeing at seed for 3 years.
Software = $0.2T market.
Services-as-software = $5.5T.
25x.
The shift is from selling tools (per-seat) to selling work (per-output).
This is why the best vertical AI companies don’t compete with software incumbents.
They’re compete with expensive service providers, BPOs and high turnover labor.
A $2K/month AI agent replacing an $80K/year agency is the new business model.
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@mattvanswol @BarbarianCap ATL wait time says 12 minutes. Not sure why there was such a problem earlier in the day.
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🚨HOLY CRAP!!!
The Atlanta TSA line has now stretched to a stunning 153 minute-wait-time... AT 6AM IN THE MORNING!!!!
The line is WRAPPING AROUND BAGGAGE CLAIM!!!
THIS IS PURE INSANITY!!!!!!
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Exactly right. The global software market is somewhere in the $1T range. The global labor market is around $30T. With the help of AI software will start eating into that $30T market and will grow exponentially. Subject matter experts will be more valuable and enterprise software companies with relationships grow larger while many others will now also have ability to build!
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I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about.
“The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.”
It’s wild when you think about the impact of this.
The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners.
But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires.
There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins.
To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially.
But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x.
I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point.
It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.
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@The_Real_Fly Data is and has always been the product. This is why Google, Amazon and Apple will keep winning.
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Now we have MORONS thinking Perplexity just replaced the Bloomberg Terminal by vibe coding it, bro. Nevermind all of the FUCKING REAL TIME DATA FEEDS and everything else. HEY! the UI looks the same
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@MatthewBerman This is Altman’s chance to drop an OpenClaw token plan.
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Anthropic just dropped the ban hammer on OpenClaw...
I've never seen a faster vibe shift between OpenAI and Anthropic. One hires the founder of OpenClaw, the other shuts it down.
Full breakdown of what happened:
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@dee_bosa @carlquintanilla Check out More Deductions for com. Crazy what AI has already done.
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the AI disruption trade just hit financial services
Again... a startup that launched an AI tax planning tool isn't going to replace Schwab anytime soon. But its a real product doing in minutes what advisors charge thousands for.
that's all the market needs right now to reprice an entire sector
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@ZenomTrader We are doing this at MonthlyAlerts dot com but it’s not as easy as you describe. Backtesting is only half the battle. Forward returns matter more. Check it out.
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Crazy what AI agents can do right now.
I asked Claude Code to autonomously code me a Gold strategy from scratch inside NinjaTrader 8.
It compiled it, debugged it on its own, ran the backtest, and came back with a profitable system.
Probably only 0.1% of the industry is doing this.
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@blondesnmoney Check out MoreDeductions.com for a fully functioning view into how AI will change tax reporting forever. Crazy!
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I give it two years until Anthropic releases Claude Tax
> "Good afternoon! Just drop your W-2 and 1099-B and I'll handle the rest!"
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@mischavdburg Kimi is the LLM being used by people running Clawdbot. It’s a Chinese LLM. Wake up!
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From the creator of Clawdbot:
“Most non-techies should not install this.”
It’s a security risk and you shouldn’t use it if you don’t know what you’re doing.
Case closed.
Peter Steinberger 🦞@steipete
The amount of crap I get for putting out a hobby project for free is quite something. People treat this like a multi-million dollar business. Security researchers demanding a bounty. Heck, I can barely buy a Mac Mini from the Sponsors. It's supposed to inspire people. And I'm glad it does. And yes, most non-techies should not install this. It's not finished, I know about the sharp edges. Heck, it's not even 3 months old. And despite rumors otherwise, I sometimes sleep.
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@dee_bosa Kimi is the new LLM being used for Clawdbot implementation. It’s a Chinese LLM… Wake up!
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🚨 DEEPSEEK WAS THE WAKE-UP CALL. CHINESE HARDWARE IS THE FOLLOW-THROUGH.
our latest deep dive on China's next AI breakthrough. Link below
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$FISV = $UNH
Very similar setup and a very similar chart to where $UNH was before its partial recovery. Despite being in completely different industries, both companies share key traits: strong fundamentals, dominant market presence, and powerful cash-generation.
Catalysts here are potential 13F inflows and positive earnings.
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@unoffendedbruh @ZeeContrarian1 You are welcome! Best of luck with $UNH. Great company but health insurance is a political target that is not worth playing. Investing is hard enough without adding politics.
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WATCH THIS NOW!
Doctor on scene: I'm a physician.
Ice agent: I DON'T CARE
They shot her three times in the face and head and then denied her medical care and it's all ON CAMERA.
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@homegymcoop As of late 2025, no broad changes have made general fitness equipment automatically eligible without documentation. Always check with your HSA provider and consult a tax advisor for your specific situation.
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Massive pro-tip for those building a home gym before years-end:
You can use your HSA or FSA to purchase gym equipment via Truemed.
This even includes Rogue Fitness Equipment as of a couple weeks ago.
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@ScVanValkenburg @garrytan How does economic diversity come from testing when the cost of education is not affordable to all?
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Can’t emphasize enough that true economic diversity in universities comes through the use of testing.
Study upon study proves it. The more subjective your acceptance process is the more the wealthy can game it.
Garry Tan@garrytan
If you *only* used SAT to admit to elite colleges, share of admits from top 1% income falls 15.8% → 9.9% and representation from <$200k rises by +8.8%, with no reduction in post-college outcomes. It's 'holistic review' and 'ban SAT' policy that allows the most wealthy and powerful to virtue signal while getting an edge.
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@caroljsroth @cpoetzscher Administration requirements come from government intervention. Free markets would make it all more efficient.
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The administrative class is getting wealthy at the expense of everyone else without better outcomes.
Wealth is being transferred from young people to school admins and from taxpayers to hospital and govt admins.
The middle class will thrive when the admin class is addressed.
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@garrytan @asymmetricinfo You say admits would rise if we only used SAT scores but how do the < $200k families pay > $100k per year to get into these schools?
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If you *only* used SAT to admit to elite colleges, share of admits from top 1% income falls 15.8% → 9.9% and representation from <$200k rises by +8.8%, with no reduction in post-college outcomes.
It's 'holistic review' and 'ban SAT' policy that allows the most wealthy and powerful to virtue signal while getting an edge.
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Your comment about UPMC is missing a major point. Aetna sets the prices that it will pay. If you walk into any service businesss and offered them half of what they need to charge for their service would you expect them to perform the service anyway? That’s the reality of our healthcare system.
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When UPMC Health Plan denies your surgery, that’s not Aetna.
That’s UPMC.
The same organization that employs your doctor decides whether you get treated.
They call it “integrated care.”
The data calls it higher prices and same denials.
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@Dan_Jeffries1 There are levels of confidence that will be achieved with AI that will be reliable. We aren’t there yet but when we get there it won’t be a question for the user. It will just work. Do you question the answers from your calculator?
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The problem with this analysis is the verification problem.
If you are not a lawyer, how do you know if what it gave you was actually excellent or garbage or something in between? Submit it in court and hope?
Same with everything else.
AI got your taxes done in twenty minutes. Is it a refund or an audit? Who knows if you are not an accountant.
It wrote code in twenty minutes. Awesome. Can you read it to see if it has security vulnerabilities or race conditions or slippery types that will bite you later badly?
It made an ad for you. Does it actually look good and sell things? Who knows if you've never designed an ad.
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_
Once it tips, it will happen fast. There will be attempts to outlaw the use of AI, but the economic incentives will be too powerful. Nations will have to figure out what to do with a wave of unemployed, formerly high-income members of the priestly caste who have no prospects.
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