Gregory Besharov

I did ask some social scientists if they understood these models, and most said they would not have thought to do them. But they're simple: compare siblings, compare the same person over time. Maybe it's ignorance holding social scientists back from testing theories properly.

Classical parenting resembles modern pet ownership Modern parenting resembles endangered-species conservation

His predictions weren't "premature." They were just wrong. They didn't happen, and they never will.

Have been reading "Kim" this last couple of weeks, and was reminded of the scholar who told me that Kipling was the author whom most twentieh-century writers had read, but most twenty-first century readers haven't. She put it better than that, but it's a good point.

I don’t like the blanket question of whether AI is improving exponentially. Exponentially with respect to what measure? Something can change exponentially on one dimension and slowly on another.