Gül Günver TURAN
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@GulGTuran
No longer sure what to believe in. RT are not endorsements, views r my own.
NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. Iran seeks an all-encompassing agreement that will end the threat of war with the United States, while the United States seeks a much narrower agreement centered on the current war. The US delegation, led by US Vice President JD Vance and including US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, appears to be pursuing a narrow, issue-specific negotiation focused on de-escalatory mechanisms around the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly secondary matters like detainees. Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. This protection racket is illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait. The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations. Consistent US and Israeli operations over Iran had suppressed Iran’s missile force by preventing Iran from digging out launchers, disrupting command-and-control, and creating pervasive fear in military units that made them unwilling or unable to conduct attacks, as ISW-CTP has previously assessed. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to recover from severe facial and leg injuries that he sustained in the February 28 strike on the supreme leader’s compound in Tehran Province. Three unspecified individuals close to Mojtaba’s inner circle told Reuters on April 11 that the strike disfigured Mojtaba’s face and injured one or both of his legs. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran to reconstitute some of its degraded air defense capabilities during the current ceasefire. The PRC is preparing to deliver man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran within the coming weeks, according to three sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments.
📌 Italy-Turkey defence: from the TB3 to GCAP, a partnership Europe can no longer ignore 🇮🇹🇹🇷✈️ 🚢 On March 25, Italy’s Chief of Navy announced the intent to procure Baykar’s TB3 for operations aboard the Cavour carrier. The acquisition will go through Leonardo, via LBA Systems — the joint venture established after the Leonardo-Baykar MoU in March 2025, with production sites across four Italian locations. This signals a change in the strategic positioning of Italy. 🛩️ The TB3 is a MALE drone engineered for short-deck carriers: folding wings, reinforced landing gear, autonomous take-off and landing, 280kg payload, SATCOM for beyond-line-of-sight operations. It has already operated from the TCG Anadolu. Italy’s Cavour is the next platform. The UK and Japan are watching closely. 🤝 The TB3 acquisition sits within a larger industrial arc. Through LBA Systems, Italy is already set to co-produce the Kizilelma — a jet-powered, stealth-capable combat drone with beyond-visual-range engagement capacity. In mid-2026, Leonardo will demonstrate an M-346 commanding two Kizilelma in loyal wingman configuration. Kizilelma is also one of the platforms under discussion for the unmanned wingman role in GCAP, the 6th-generation fighter programme developed by Italy, the UK, and Japan. The industrial logic is compounding fast. 📊 This is not peripheral to Leonardo’s strategy. The March 2026 Industrial Plan lists LBA Systems as one of four explicit drivers for Aeronautics order growth through 2030, projecting revenues in that segment to rise from €3.6bn to €5.5bn. Unmanned systems sit in the same product portfolio as GCAP and Eurofighter. Baykar is now embedded in the financial architecture of one of Europe’s largest defence contractors. 🌊 What Italy is endorsing is a different logic of sea power: smaller carriers, unmanned systems, distributed and scalable airpower. TB3 today, Kizilelma tomorrow. LBA Systems is already set to building both on Italian soil. The industrial integration is ahead of the political framework. 🇪🇺 Europe’s relationship with the Turkish defence industry is already real — it is just not yet honest about what it is. Once shared systems enter active service, the partnership changes in kind. At some point, the EU will have to answer a question it has been content to defer: when does de facto security integration require a formal framework, rather than a patchwork of bilateral deals?
