Plimsoll🚢

@christankerfund Maybe the upcoming earnings call will be better than their usual take.

Well I’ll be darned … open market buys by Nikolaos at $TEN!

Legend!

@Paratus2014 @eurofounder And I am always amazed by how many commenters think this stuff is true🤷‍♂️

@eurofounder Your parody writing is so phenomenally good, that there are days where your posts completely enrage me. Keep up the good work, this stuff is art.

My wife woke me up today at 3am crying “Our daughter had a motorbike accident in Thailand” “She had a surgery, but the hospital is holding her passport until she pays the $7,000 bill” “Did you transfer her money?” I asked “I tried but our bank flagged it as high-risk and blocked our account” I proudly smiled “This is exactly why German banking is the safest in the world” I said “What? We need to send her money now, maybe Revolut?” “Revolut? No, we are not going to use an unregulated fintech” I said My wife stormed out of the room crying This really surprised me. Why is she mad? The anti-fraud team at Deutsche Bank is doing an incredible job The wire will be released within 5 business days My daughter waiting a bit more is a little price to pay for not being scammed like Americans

@RudyHavenstein He might be thinking that, but his shirt didn't say it.

@sentdefender Some fun facts about modern Korean shipbuilding

@Naviospirates @christankerfund

$NMM declares its NEW and HIGHER dividend of 6 cents !

@calvinfroedge Was there in March, photo doesn't do justice to seeing it live!

Imagine seeing this in person

@contang_o Doesn't the Iranian approved route pass north of Larak?

We'll see what he's saying in a couple months.

@a_living_fossil @christankerfund Tech can't do much if there isn't any oil.

@christankerfund Hormuz is a sideshow, I'm surprised anyone is still talking about it. This market is about tech. For good reason.

Index futures have turned green with reports that Iran has given the U.S. a proposal to reopen the Strait and Trump to hold a situation room meeting tomorrow. Oil +1%

@Gary_Brode @CorneliaLake Strait of Hormuz is not the only way to get oil out of Iran: instagram.com/reel/DXjUN_jjw…

The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card When Raji Khabbaz and I were running Silver Arrow Investment Management, whenever we were trying to figure out why something happened, he was unsatisfied the explanation that people are sometimes stupid and institutions are often stupid. He correctly thought that people usually have a good reason (at least to them) for doing something even if it appears to make little sense to an outsider. More importantly, he thought that “sometimes people are stupid” was a lazy answer that was dismissive. As investors, it was our goal to understand what was happening, not to ignore it. Recently, I’ve written that many of President Trump’s critics are making the same error. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously transported 20% of the world’s oil supply, the price of oil rose. Gas prices in the US have risen in response. Many screamed that this was an obvious move by the Iranian regime and insisted President Trump should have known it was something they’d do. How could he not know?! In 2002, the US Navy conducted war games they called the Millennium Challenge. One side represented Iran. The other represented the technologically superior US Navy and included an aircraft carrier, warships, and cruisers. The US Navy side had a substantial advantage in firepower. Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper used asymmetric warfare tactics to wipe out the US side in one day. Had this been a real fight, the US would have lost 20,000 servicemen. The result was such an embarrassment that the Navy re-floated the sunk ships, changed the rules of engagement to ensure a US victory, and started the challenge again. These games were not a secret. They have been widely covered in the mainstream media and have been the subject of a New York Times documentary. Over the past two decades, I have seen the Millennium Challenge discussed in my daily financial news reading at least a dozen times. The event has its own Wikipedia page. Regardless of your opinion of President Trump, do you really believe that neither he, nor anyone in the White House, nor any of his military advisors, nor Secretary of War, Hegseth knew about this? I realize that many of you reading this have strong negative emotions regarding President Trump. I’m not asking you to like or respect him. I’m just suggesting that “he’s stupid and has no idea what he’s doing” is not good analysis. This is a point I’ve made in this space in the past. Early in the war, Iran closed the Strait which placed economic pressure on the rest of the world. Despite the fact that it was Iran mining the Strait and shooting at the ships that attempted to navigate it, many countries expressed anger at the US and Israel. This was the outcome Iran wanted. Then, the regime decided to allow friendly ships to pass if they paid a fee. The fees were about $1/barrel of oil, or about $2MM per large container vessel. (Many of these fees were paid in Bitcoin, something macro analyst, @peruvian_bull, explained in an excellent post within the past week.) This looked like worst-case scenario for the US. Iran succeeded in closing the Strait and causing economic problems all over the world, then found a way to profit from their own actions. Then, President Trump played his “reverse uno” card. He correctly realized that it wasn’t just the rest of the world that depended on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was Iran that had the most exposure. Iran is a big oil producer, and oil exports account for 80% of Iran’s exports, 60% of government revenue, and 25% of its GDP. It turns out that Iran has more economic exposure to this narrow waterway than anyone else. President Trump sent the US Navy to form a blockade. He closed the Strait himself ensuring no more $2MM/vessel charges and an inability for Iran to export oil. Iran is close to filling its own storage. Once its oil tanks are full, the regime has two choices, either capitulate and come to an agreement with the US, or to stop producing from its own wells. The problem with the second choice is that it’s difficult to reverse. Stopping production on an active oil well tends to damage it and it’s hard to re-start later. Iran now has a limited amount of time to find a course of action before 25% of its GDP becomes permanently(ish) impaired. While no one in the US likes paying more for gas, prices were much higher just four years ago in 2022 and around $4/gallon in 2008, 2011, and 2012 when $4 had more purchasing power than it does now. The US is a net energy exporter with an economy that has survived higher prices in the past. Foreign ships are turning away from the Strait of Hormuz and sailing to Texas and other southern US ports to fill up at premium prices. I’m not suggesting that this is great for the US; but rather, that the US is well-suited to manage the situation while Iran is about to be faced with a massive long-term problem. Finally, Iran maintains control of the country using extensive human infrastructure. There are police everywhere monitoring protests, internet usage, the attire of citizens, and the hair of Iranian women. That level of control is expensive and the government just lost 60% of its revenue. I’m wondering how long they’ll keep doing their jobs without paychecks. I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that President Trump and the US Navy have turned Iran’s biggest strategic strength into a giant weakness. Sometimes people do stupid things. And sometimes, we just aren’t seeing the reasoning behind those actions. Last week, one of DKI’s interns wrote, ”The bottom line is that (financial analysis) can tell you what the market’s pricing in, but it’s your job to figure out why”. Right now, the mullahs are facing a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see what comes next.

Ashley St. Clair confirmed the WH runs group chats telling these accounts what to post. Within minutes of shots fired tonight, before there was any news of casualties and before the President said this exact talking point, this was the chat in real time.

@bagholder would something like this have been possible in Germany 50 years ago? time.com/archive/694614…

$BNO 🚀

The only post this account ever made, and it was in 2023, wtf?

“If the Strait of Hormuz opens after April, we cannot provide an accurate oil price forecast. We will have crossed too deep into the Rubicon. This will have been the largest oil supply outage in the history of the oil market by a magnitude of 4x. Fundamental market theories will no longer apply here because there’s no price for outright shortages. When a market runs out of fuel, it just runs out.”

@LukeyTrags $JOY.TO

Energy equities have compressed to their lowest forward P/E ratios in over 2yrs amid the recent pullback.. Next leg higher or value trap? What tickers are on your watchlist? #OOTT #COM #gas #LNG #coaltwitter $XLE $XOM $CVX $WDS.AX $STO.AX $PBR

@DavidBCollum That deck looks like a splinter hazard for bare feet!

It is a lovely view off my deck even on cloudy days but do not miss the pile of hair brushed off my 700 lb chocolate Lab...

@Naviospirates @ed_fin You so generous!

@HPA17 @ed_fin 20%!!!

Jefferies is initiating coverage of shipping! Wait... wut?