Hardenflower

$DWSN has more than doubled since late March. This puzzled me, so I tried to make the current valuation work from the bottom up. Under the normalized margins and multiples I use in my new research article, Dawson needs roughly $130–200m of annual US fee revenue. Historically, that translates into something like 6–10 active crew-equivalents. In Q1, it ran one large US crew and three smaller ones. The 2026 capex budget is $3m. No additional equipment order has been disclosed. I couldn’t find anything resembling the hiring push needed for a major expansion. You don’t need a complicated model to see the issue. Start by counting. To be fair, @leevalueroach called Dawson undervalued below $2 last year, and he got it right. The backlog was real. The new equipment arrived. The crews went to work. But the thesis changed with the price. Q1 was spectacular: $10.9m of adjusted EBITDA, compared with $4.7m in all of 2025. The trap is annualizing it. Canada produced $5.6m of EBITDA in Q1 alone, versus about $3m for the whole prior year. Multiply Q1 by four, and you count several Canadian winters that do not exist. Adjust for seasonality, and I get roughly 9–11× EBITDA. Normalize the peak-quarter margins as well and the multiple moves toward 17×. So the operating bull case needs two things: Q1-like margins that persist and a double-digit multiple for a controlled, cyclical seismic contractor. Possible? Sure. An obvious bargain? I don’t see it. So I’m not long. But I’m not short either 🤷‍♂️. The minority float is only about 6.4m shares. Borrow is scarce and unstable. The visible H2 schedule is busy enough to produce a very strong Q3. And a controlled-company transaction can reprice the stock sharply in either direction, without warning. Sometimes the entire output of the work is permission to do nothing. Full FREE write-up, including my hunt for the anonymous customer behind 51% of revenue, why the ongoing Wilks process makes $DWSN difficult to own and dangerous to short, and what to look for before the next print 👇 open.substack.com/pub/microcapdr…

🚨 USA, Chine, Europe : qui arrive vraiment le mieux armé pour 2026 ? 🗺️ Les US carburent à la dette et à l’IA, la Chine domine l’industrie, l’Europe tente le rebond. Chez @LesFinanciersTV, j'ai fait un bilan macro par zone après le premier semestre. youtu.be/dHjA0_O6oWI?si…

An Israeli soldier in Gaza holds up the sock of a Palestinian girl after killing her, filming himself smiling, after writing in his post (in Hebrew): "My new hobby: smelling the sock of a 5-year-old girl twice a day for 4 months." This is neither a narrative nor an analysis. These are the soldier's own words, with his picture and from his own account. #Gaza #FreePalestine #WarCrimes

AI’s Hidden Thirst: The Ultra-Pure Water Play Nobody’s Talking About 💧 7 Exciting “Water” Stocks 👇 ❤️ Like 🟦 Save this 🔁 Repost 💡 #AI doesn’t just need chips and data centers, it needs ultra-pure water. Modern microchip manufacturing demands water so clean that even microscopic impurities can destroy yields. For a single advanced microchip, up to 30 liters of ultra-pure water can be required during production. Semiconductor fabs consume millions of gallons daily for wafer cleaning and rinsing. On top of that, hyperscale data centers rely heavily on water for cooling systems, especially as AI workloads drive higher power densities and liquid cooling adoption. 👉 This creates a powerful, under-the-radar investment theme: companies that treat, purify, recycle, and manage water for the semiconductor and data center boom. 7 Exciting “Water” Stocks Positioned for This Opportunity: • Xylem Inc. $XYL Global leader in water technology. Its 2023 acquisition of Evoqua significantly strengthened its position in microelectronics and ultrapure water systems for chip manufacturing. • Ecolab Inc. $ECL Industrial water treatment giant. In 2025 it acquired Ovivo’s Electronics ultra-pure water business, directly targeting semiconductor manufacturing and giving it cutting-edge UPW technology plus water circularity solutions. • Veolia Environnement $VEOEY One of the world’s largest water companies with major contracts for ultrapure water systems and recycling at new semiconductor facilities (including large U.S. projects). Strong exposure to both chip fabs and data center infrastructure. • Kurita Water Industries $6370.T Japanese pure-play leader in ultrapure water for semiconductors. Dominant in Asia and rapidly expanding in the U.S. and Europe through acquisitions and new semiconductor projects (including TSMC-related work). • Daikin Industries $6367.T / $DKILY HVAC and cooling giant aggressively entering data centers with chillers, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and recent acquisitions (e.g., Chilldyne for leak-resistant systems and DDC Solutions). Well-positioned for high-density AI workloads. • Pentair plc $PNR Provides advanced filtration (including membranes for UPW), water treatment, and high-efficiency pumps critical for data center cooling systems and industrial water management in semiconductor plants. • Innventure $INV Under-the-radar innovator with its Accelsius NeuCool two-phase liquid cooling technology, designed for extreme high-power AI chips (targeting 4500-6000W+ cooling). Positions it perfectly for next-gen data center thermal challenges where traditional water-based systems hit limits. Thematic ETFs for Broader Exposure 📈 Invesco Water Resources ETF $PHO: Tracks U.S. water infrastructure and treatment companies (includes many of the names above + utilities and tech). 📈 First Trust Water ETF $FIW: Focused on water utilities, equipment, and treatment plays. Bottom line 👉 The AI buildout is still in its early innings. While everyone focuses on GPUs and power, the companies enabling the ultra-clean water that makes advanced chips possible are quietly becoming essential infrastructure plays. Water is the “picks and shovels” story for the semiconductor and AI era. 👉 What do you think, overlooked opportunity or already priced in? 💬 #AI #Semiconductors #WaterStocks #Investing #DataCenters Sources: axeonwater.com/blog/ultrapure…

x.com/i/article/2068…