Andrew Clifton

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 11–12, 2026 Kentucky's CD4 Republican primary has become one of the most closely watched House primaries in the country, and our latest survey finds Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein leading Rep. Thomas Massie. 📊 Kentucky CD4 GOP Primary 🔴 Ed Gallrein: 48.3% 🔴 Thomas Massie: 43.1% ⚪️ Undecided: 7.6% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– With leaners included, Gallrein expands his advantage. 📊 Firm + Leaners 🔴 Ed Gallrein: 52.8% 🔴 Thomas Massie: 45.1% ⚪️ Still undecided: 2.1% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📈 Leaner Movement Among voters who were not completely sure yet: 🔴 Lean toward Ed Gallrein: 52.4% 🔴 Lean toward Thomas Massie: 23.4% ⚪️ Still completely undecided: 24.1% Gallrein is winning the leaner pool by more than two-to-one, moving him above 50% when firm support and leaners are combined. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Key Takeaway Massie retains a durable base of support, but Gallrein leads on the initial ballot and strengthens his position once leaners are allocated. In a nationalized Republican primary shaped by Trump’s endorsement, outside spending, and Massie’s independent brand, Gallrein enters the final stretch with the advantage.