@HenryInvests 1% MoM growth is a lot slower than the last 2 years. Any reason for this do you think? Is that indicative of an incoming slowdown?
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Cash Flow Carl
43 posts
We now know that Upstart's $UPST 1Q26 total originations were $3,443M and the first month of 2Q26 was $1,274M.
More importantly, originations per day are growing - a sign of efficiency when you smooth out some of the volatility of weekends and holidays.
Note that April has one less day than March. Assuming April had the extra day, originations (based on the per day posted) would be $1,322M marking 4.7% MoM growth.
The biggest question remains how much of this origination growth will translate to revenue? In other words, how much is Upstart dialing back the take rate to permeate the market. We'll find out tomorrow!
Henry@HenryInvests
Upstart $UPST April Originations come in at $1,274M, up 51% YoY
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@RonAMacro @HenryInvests How do you know that’s what the guidance assumed? This isn’t a good trend for Q2 and beyond
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@HenryInvests Q1 averaged roughly 1.37 across January, February, and March. The guidance assumed 1.40-1.50. Q1 actually ran below that assumption on average. which means Q1 credit performance was better than guidance assumed. That’s still a positive for the quarter being reported.
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@_ZachGriff @grok is this data roughly reliable? For JFK specifically. It says 3rd party provider. Who is the data provider? Is it reliable or roughly in right ball park? What’s it based on.
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Great news: EWR and JFK are live again on my free TSA wait time dashboard.
Since official feeds were pulled, I’m now sourcing data from a 3rd party provider (EWR/JFK only)
Lmk if times are off.
Tested a few times over past 24 hours, and seems accurate.
tsa.fromthetraytable.com
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@MonteonX There’s a large convert, majority of that is not “real”
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@Stock_Fox__ @grok what are the requirements that can lead to this? Assume PAYC is down 6% tomorrow. What is its market cap? Where are the next largest companies in order. What would need to happen for PAYC to get removed
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Catalyst watch - $PAYC is now by far the smallest company in the S&P500 at around a $7 billion market cap. It's a fair bet it'll be dropped from the index if the share price remains depressed (and after that 2026 guide, I don't see why that would change)
Fox@Stock_Fox__
Cannot believe how much I talked up $PAYC in the past. 9% bottom line growth on the high end for 2026? Are you kidding me? That maturity wall is insane
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@VladTheInflator Ai is going to cook these jobs down to $7/hr.
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Why do all the jobs that produce the least goods/services make the most money?
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@sdav1986 Mind blowing and Insane cope . Saturdays night before Christmas brother. Have fun staying poor
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Let me reiterate. Most of these « quants » are just employees of prestigious hedge fund getting 500k pay checks to add regularisation terms to regression models, but you take them away from their prestigious employers and they are completely useless.
david@sdav1986
Quants are schmuck idiot doing bachelor level stats who can’t get a real job
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NOW - Trump says 600,000 Chinese students coming to the U.S. is a pro-MAGA stance because "you would have half the colleges in the United States go out of business... I know what MAGA wants better than anybody else."
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@The1Antagonist @Babygravy9 How hot, for how long, and how often?
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@Babygravy9 Hot bath is better than sauna by every metric and is available in every American home.
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Whatever you think of Bryan and his ultimate goals, he’s doing extremely important experimental work. We still know very little about how to detox microplastics, beyond avoiding exposure to them in the first place. This evidence suggests sauna—sweating—may be a major route out of the body for accumulate microplastics.
Bryan Johnson@bryan_johnson
I eliminated 85% of microplastics from my ejaculate. Nov 2024: 165 particles/mL July 2025: 20 particles/mL Nearly identical drop in my blood same time period: Oct 2024: 70 particles/mL May 2025: 10 particles/mL Important as a meta-analysis of 36 studies reveals that microplastics induce oxidative stress in the male reproductive system, leading to testicular inflammation, cell death, and reduced testosterone levels, sperm production, and motility. Two studies last year showed that microplastics were detected in every human testicular and semen samples tested. The therapy we think most responsible for this reduction is sauna as it also eliminated most environmental toxins in my body, including those linked to various plastics (200 F, 20 min daily w/ ice on the boys). I also avoid the big no-no’s like microwaving in plastic, plastic cutting board, and having a reverse osmosis water system. To our knowledge, this is the first report of any correlation (esp in the same person over two timepoints) between blood and semen microplastic levels, demonstrating successful microplastic detoxification in the semen following that in the blood.
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@BioavailableNd @AveryHaskell How much do you need to invest to achieve the results ?
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Ginger & Testosterone: Randomized controlled clinical trial on infertile men (small n=):
Ginger alone (500 mg/day, 2 months)
•Sperm motility: ↑ +42%
•Sperm concentration: ↑ +36%
•DNA fragmentation: ↓ –31%
•Testosterone: ↑ +25%
This is for all the eye rollers and groklets in the OG tweet. 🥰
Andra@BioavailableNd
Gentlemen, ginger should be THE testosterone and fertility booster of choice. Ginger helped infertile men boost: - Testosterone rby ~21% - Sperm motility improved by ~47% - Sperm count increased by ~16% - Ejaculate volume increased by 32% If anyone has access to the paper, can you please send it to me pretty please? Need dosage.
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Curtis Sliwa is just legitimately a straight up Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles character
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Bill Melugin@BillMelugin_
This post and allegation are fake & false, that’s not even an ICE agent or any kind of federal agent. It’s a screenshot from a TikTok video in July compilation on juvenile crime the child in cuffs was a parody. But Cato’s @David_J_Bier couldn’t bother to do 20 secs of research, it was apparently too tantalizing of an opportunity to demonize ICE when tensions are at an all time high. Democrats have brought David in to testify on Capitol Hill multiple times regarding immigration matters.
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@essenviews This should have headlined every news program on the air. It's criminal abuse of a child.
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A Toddler being detained and zip-tied as part of an early morning ICE raid in Chicago
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@doomerzoomer That short interest number isn’t real. It’s related to the convert. And FCF conversion is just 50% of Adj EBITDA just a heads up.
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@GiraffeNeckMarc @grok how much is this card worth if graded at a 10
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Brewers are both the hottest team on and off the field right now. Jacob Misiorowski opened a pack of Base Set Pokemon cards after the game and hit a Charizard Holo
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@doomerzoomer Would pretty much guarantee the answer is SBC, of which ADYEN has almost none
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STEVEN NGUYEN GETS THE WIN BY DOCTOR'S STOPPAGE AFTER SETTING A UFC RECORD SIX KNOCKDOWNS AT #UFCABUDHABI 💥
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@elder_plinius @grok what is this referring to? Point me in a direction where I can learn more
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we discovered alien intelligence in sand and like 1% of the world cares lol
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