HunterTrades

I obviously cannot predict the future, but using fibs etc etc, here’s a scenario i could maybe see heading into next week. This obviously is probably very wrong but it’s quite fun to do in my spare time. Invalidation would be a daily close under the 0.618 on $NVDA

@vandy_trades @Mr_Derivatives As well, maybe a little pull back sometime in june or july but keep goin after that.

@Mr_Derivatives I think we see a bear move into august/ September

Tom Lee last couple days has updated his $SPX viewpoint: We could see as high as 7,700 near term, but be prepared for what feels like a “bear market” afterwards until October. So somewhere between a 10-15% drawdown. You buy that dip because eoy he believes we could see 8,000.

Day 5 or 6 or some I forgot to post but ended up withdrawing 2,000$ so account is still sitting right around same as before.

@stonkstradamus should be now. would’ve been a great dip buy today imo

$FCEL might be ready for $30

@stonkstradamus crcl looks ready to go to, been watching it for a bit

$MSTR flag on the play? $200 incoming? Weekly levels.

@Silent97Percent interesting 🤔

Claude AI built me a God Mode indicator. It rarely flashes signals. I back tested it. Since 2022 it gave 2 buys on the weekly DOW chart. Each time the market rose 15k-ish pts. It gave 2 sells in 4 years. Dec 2024 led to an 8k to drop over 3 months. Today it gave its 2nd sell. SPY and QQQ also flashed sell. Hmmm.

@imtopblastin @MichaelPBento 😭

@MichaelPBento IT'S HAPPENING!

Uh ohhhhh

@StockOptionCole 0.10 cents off my entry today, look at the date lol

$NVDA Thank you for selling the last 2 weeks - I ate up all the dips all the way down to 208 I just loaded up more calls at 208 today 🏆 $NVDA is my heaviest of the heaviest position.

I obviously cannot predict the future, but using fibs etc etc, here’s a scenario i could maybe see heading into next week. This obviously is probably very wrong but it’s quite fun to do in my spare time. Invalidation would be a daily close under the 0.618 on $NVDA

Update: I might be himothy🤣 0.10 cents off of today’s low.

@alphaticaio would it be valid by end of week now w the delta being lower? also look what i had made on saturday🤣 0.10 cents off of today’s low. let’s see how it does

@HunterTradesss Yes.

-$15.0B net sell. $MU from +$5.0B zero sells to -$8.1B. The largest single-name reversal since we started reporting this series. Yesterday $MU printed +$5.02B with zero sell blocks across 3,466 prints. Not one institutional seller. The largest zero-sell print we had ever recorded. Today $MU printed -$8.11B across 7,325 blocks. The biggest sell on the entire tape. A $13.1B swing in 24 hours. On the same name. $19.1B in buy blocks. $34.1B in sells. Net flow: -$15.0B. Sell/buy ratio: 1.8 to 1. 31,769 prints. The sellers. Seven of eight names. $MU -$8.11B (7,325 blocks) $QQQ -$3.61B (4,367 blocks) $AMD -$1.66B (1,114 blocks, $60M buys vs $1.72B sells) $NVDA -$1.44B (3,237 blocks) $IWM -$889M (478 blocks) $SPY -$753M (2,103 blocks) $TSLA -$123M (1,234 blocks) The only buyer: $AAPL +$1.73B (682 blocks) The supply chain trade flipped overnight. Yesterday the tape said: buy supply chain ($MU, $AMD), sell platforms ($NVDA, $MSFT). Today: sell everything including supply chain. The Iran draft MOU is the catalyst. An unofficial framework calling for US troop withdrawal and lifting of the naval blockade. Lower oil means lower inflation means the urgency to own AI infrastructure fades. The "only game in town" trade is being repriced. $MU has now swung between zero-buy days and zero-sell days multiple times this month. May 8: +$13.4B zero sells. May 18: -$4.55B zero buys. May 26: +$5.02B zero sells. May 27: -$8.11B. The most one-directional name on the tape swings in the opposite direction with zero notice. When $MU moves, there is no middle ground. $AMD: +$1.01B yesterday. -$1.66B today. $60M in buys vs $1.72B in sells. The compute trade reversed alongside memory. $NVDA: -$1.44B. Fourth straight post-earnings sell session. Cumulative -$8.6B since the beat. The $NVDA distribution continues regardless of what's happening in the rest of the market. $AAPL: +$1.73B. The only buyer on the tape. Yesterday -$1.12B. Today +$1.73B. A $2.85B swing. The consumer trade is the Iran peace beneficiary. Lower oil means more consumer spending power. Apple is the ultimate consumer name. The rotation scanner showed $XLY (Consumer Discretionary) leading at +1.9% today. $QQQ: -$3.61B. $SPY: -$753M. $IWM: -$889M. All three indexes being sold. The broad market is under distribution. The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt.

300$ pry in play $AMZN

a close under the daily gp would be no bueno

$CRCL great buy here imo if hold of the daily gp

@alphaticaio does the $NVDA post still stand

SPY OPEN | Wednesday May 27 $750.38. Flat. Iran state media reporting a draft MOU with the US. Futures popped on the headline and faded. The market is telling you something. Composite: +22.9 [Lean Bullish] WHY A DEAL COULD MEAN DOWN: This sounds counterintuitive. Peace is bullish. A deal is good. But the market doesn't trade the news. It trades the delta between what's expected and what happens. Here's why our channel needs to be prepared. The deal is already priced. The rally from $656 to $751 was driven by mechanics we tracked every session: 217M dealer short delta at its peak, $1.57B of positive gamma, 15M puts decaying into forced buying pressure, and four consecutive sessions of 90M+ bullish flow. Whether the Iran narrative was the backdrop or not, the positioning built the move. A formal announcement doesn't add new mechanical fuel. The engine already ran. The catalyst gets consumed. Before the deal, every dip was bought because "a deal is coming and the market will rip." After the deal, what's the next catalyst? The upside surprise disappears. The market needs new fuel. The hedge book thins. The 12M puts powering the mechanical buying were built during Hormuz uncertainty. If the uncertainty resolves permanently, the demand for new puts declines. Fewer puts means less put decay. Less put decay means less forced dealer buying. The engine that powered the grind starts losing fuel not because of selling but because the reason to hedge disappears. Vol crushes. A deal confirmation compresses IV. When uncertainty resolves, options get cheaper. Depending on the vanna profile, a vol crush at these levels could trigger dealer selling, not buying. We've seen this pattern before. NVDA beat by 120%. Stock closed red. Three of the last four quarters. The market doesn't reward the event. It reprices the expectation. A confirmed Iran deal is the geopolitical version of an earnings beat that was already priced in. This doesn't mean sell everything. It means understand that the announcement itself is not the bullish catalyst everyone assumes it is. The rally already happened. The deal is the receipt. THE STRUCTURE: GEX: +$399M. Positive. The magnets are holding the new highs: $750: +$140M (at price) $752: +$114M $753: +$84M $755: +$204M (dominant, 0.6% above) $760: +$131M $673M of magnets from $750 to $760. The structure supports the current level. But it's half the $1.57B we recorded last Friday. The blanket is present but thinning from the weekly OpEx approach. $749 accelerator: -$52M. 0.2% below price. That's new. An accelerator appeared directly below the ATH level. If the Iran headline fades and the market dips below $749, the accelerator pushes toward $735 (-$52M) and $730 (-$65M). GEX flip: $683. Cushion: 8.9%. The deep floor is far. Flow: +3.7M shares. Light. The market is waiting, not pressing. Call premium at 81% is strong but volume is thin. The institutions are watching the Iran details, not trading the headline. P/C ratio: 3.01. Back above 3.0. The hedging remains heavy at the highs. Call VWAS: $774. Targeting 3% higher than legacy OI. The positioning is still aimed upward. But the low volume says they're patient, not urgent. WHAT TO WATCH: Crude. If oil drops below $95 on a confirmed deal, the inflation repricing accelerates. That's bullish for equities in the medium term but could trigger a sell-the-news in the short term. 30-year yield. If yields drop on deal confirmation, the multiple expansion trade activates. If yields stay elevated despite the deal, the market is telling you inflation is structural, not just energy-driven. Defense names. If RTX, LMT, NOC sell off hard, the market believes the deal is real. If they hold, the market is skeptical. May 29 OpEx. 2.58M contracts expire Friday. 2.12M puts. The largest weekly OpEx since the gamma cliff. If an Iran deal is confirmed mid-week and vol crushes into Friday's expiration, the combination could produce the same GEX inversion dynamic we saw May 15. ACTIVE SIGNALS: Inflation matrix (Both Hot): Day 14 of 20. Target: +1.44%. Current: +1.09%. On pace. Six days remaining. If the oil collapse continues on a confirmed deal, the matrix could overshoot. The bottom line: A deal is expected. The market priced it. The announcement may be the sell-the-news event for the same reason NVDA beat and sold off: the expectation was already in the price. The structure holds the highs for now. The magnets are above. The flow is light. The channel should be prepared for both outcomes: a deal that extends the rally OR a deal that becomes the catalyst the market sells against. The rally from $656 to $751 was built on mechanics: dealer delta, put decay, and gamma suppression. Those mechanics are still present but thinner. A confirmed deal removes the uncertainty that drove the hedging. Less hedging means less fuel. The announcement may close the chapter that powered the engine, not open a new one. $755 is the magnet. $750 is the pin. $749 is the accelerator. $683 is the floor. $SPY $QQQ $VIX

@alphaticaio yep 210.71 tommorow probably, an then

NVDA UPDATE | Tuesday May 26, 1:45 PM 🚨🚨The vanna clock is at 94%. $213.19. Down 1.00%. Still red. Here's exactly when it turns. Our Composite Score: +40.1 [Lean Bullish] THE VANNA CLOCK: We've explained the vanna mechanic every session since earnings. IV compression forces dealers to sell shares. That's the mechanical headwind dragging NVDA lower despite bullish positioning. Here's where the clock stands. Pre-earnings IV: 62.7% Current IV: 41.2% Realized vol: 39.9% Remaining spread: 1.3% Read that last number. 1.3%. That's all the IV compression that's left. IV has already crushed 21.5 points from 62.7% to 41.2%. The vanna unwind is 94% complete. There are 1.3 points remaining before IV reaches realized vol. After that, the mechanical seller runs out of fuel. The -644K dealer effective vanna that has been selling NVDA for five straight sessions is almost done. Not "soon." Not "eventually." The math says 1-2 more sessions of residual compression. By Thursday, IV settles at realized and the selling stops. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN IT STOPS: The positioning underneath the vanna headwind is overwhelming: Composite: +40.1. Bullish. Every session since earnings. Flow: +14.3M shares bullish today. On a red day. Again. Premium: +$497M call-heavy at 72%. 1.42M new call positions opened. Call VWAS: $224. Targeting 5% above current price. P/C ratio: 0.81. More calls than puts in OI. Still rare for any stock. Dealers short 310M. The forced-buying engine is massive. GEX: +$409M. All magnets: $210: +$16M (at price support) $220: +$89M (dominant, 3.2% above) $225: +$51M $230: +$67M $235: +$25M $240: +$45M $293M of magnets from $220 to $240. Zero accelerators above. The structure is ready for the recovery. The vanna headwind is the only thing standing in the way. GEX flip: $193. Cushion: 9.6%. The floor is far. $213 with a $193 floor means NVDA has 9.6% of structural cushion. The risk of a structural break is minimal. THE TIMELINE: The vanna unwind completes when IV reaches realized vol (~40%). At the current pace of ~2 points per session, that's today or tomorrow. Call it Wednesday-Thursday. Once the vanna stops selling: - The $220 magnet at +$89M becomes the dominant force - 310M dealer short delta starts amplifying the upside instead of fighting the downside - The call positioning that's been building all week (bullish flow every session on red days) gets its turn - The snap from $213 toward $220-$225 could happen in one session The setup is a coiled spring. The bullish energy is stored in 310M dealer delta, $409M of positive gamma, and 1.42M new call positions. The vanna headwind is the compression. When the compression releases, the spring fires. OUR TAKE: NVDA has been red every session since earnings. The composite has been +37 to +47 every session since earnings. The positioning says buy. The vanna mechanic says wait. The vanna is 94% done. We're not calling the exact bottom. We're telling you the mechanic that's causing the selloff is running out of fuel. When it stops, the positioning takes over. That's this week. $220 is the target. $210 is support. $193 is the floor. The vanna clock is at 94%. $NVDA $QQQ $SMH

@MichaelPBento many agree w me

@MichaelPBento ur posts are valuable for the most part but recently all you’ve been posting is 🐻 on🐻 posts. i agree we’re overextended n im neither perma bull nor bear(i lost money on this generational rally) but man all the bearish posts get to a point. if u block me it’s chill, but im sure

The little zoom zooms that started trading 5 minutes ago are wearing out my mute button tonight.

@Deepuitsme wdym

@HunterTradesss At which price action?

@StockOptionCole on the daily

@StockOptionCole yep n loss of that… well🥀

$NVDA to 208 and we're going to attack it...