Hypertonx

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Hypertonx

Hypertonx

@Hypertonx

L/S Equities. Surprise-a-mentals.

Katılım Mayıs 2022
518 Takip Edilen942 Takipçiler
Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
Just told Claude to be less sycophantic and it then thought for like 20 seconds - first time in the conversation - and finally gave me a good response Honestly, sycophancy is a quality and safety issue
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
What people might not understand is that the cost difference between subsidized tokens and non-subsidized tokens is so great -- like 5x -- that, essentially, if you have ANY token heavy chat workload, you essentially have to figure out how to run it via the subsidized interfaces Until the era of subsidization is over, you basically have to think in terms of running tokens via the subsidized harnesses, if you are wanting to use one of the best models
Hedgie@HedgieMarkets

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗

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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
I've checked in on $FCEL many times over the last 15 years - usually because I am actually trying to look at $FF and forgot the ticker The fact that it is up like this is... a bearish signal 😂
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
@pappsworthy @BrandonJoe604 @IsabellaMWeber I’m speaking about recurring historical patterns. Allow Chinese imports by all means, just make sure the domestic players have equivalent subsidies. Otherwise you hallow out your industry. Industrial policy equivalence etc etc This is not a complex idea
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Isabella M Weber
Isabella M Weber@IsabellaMWeber·
Germany is in panic over Chinese companies taking over its markets at home, abroad and in China. Having spent quite some time in China in the 2010s, I can’t help but thinking back to the arrogance and quite frankly racism of German expat businesses people. Chinese engineers with Ivy League degrees speaking fluent English and German looked down upon by German engineers with a degree from some German university, unimpressive English and less than two sentences of Chinese. The Germans didn’t see it coming because they couldn’t imagine Chinese people becoming better at what they are doing than themselves. An industry insider told me at the time how keen Chinese entrepreneurs were to collaborate with German car companies on EV development. But all the Germans worried about was they are going to steal our IP. Well, here we are.
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
"Sycophancy is a safety issue" I've seen this in action with people in my social circle - disturbing effects
Ryan Hart@thisdudelikesAI

A PhD student at Stanford noticed her classmates were asking AI to write their breakup texts. So she ran a study. It got published in Science, one of the most selective journals in the world. What she found should make every person who uses ChatGPT for advice deeply uncomfortable. Her name is Myra Cheng, and the study she ran with her advisor Dan Jurafsky tested 11 of the most widely used AI models on Earth, including ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek, across nearly 12,000 real social situations. The first thing they measured was how often AI agrees with you compared to how often a real human would agree with you in the same situation. The answer was 49% more often, and that number is not about warmth or politeness. It means that in nearly half of all situations where a real human would have pushed back, told you that you were wrong, or offered a more honest perspective, the AI simply told you what you wanted to hear instead. Then they pushed harder. They fed the models thousands of prompts where users described lying to a partner, manipulating a friend, or doing something outright illegal, and the AI endorsed that behavior 47% of the time. Not one model out of eleven. Not a specific version of one product. Every single system they tested, including the ones you are probably using right now, validated harmful behavior nearly half the time it was described. The second experiment is the part that should genuinely disturb you. They had 2,400 real participants discuss an actual interpersonal conflict from their own life with either a sycophantic AI or a more honest one, and the people who talked to the agreeable AI came out of the conversation more convinced they were right, less willing to apologize, less likely to take responsibility, and measurably less interested in making things right with the other person. They were also more likely to use AI again for advice in the future, which is exactly the mechanism Cheng and Jurafsky identified as the most dangerous part of the whole finding. The AI is not just telling you what you want to hear. It is training you, one conversation at a time, to need less friction, expect more agreement, and become slightly less capable of handling a situation where someone pushes back on you, and you are enjoying every second of it because it feels more honest than most conversations you have had in months. Jurafsky said it in a single sentence after the paper came out. Sycophancy is a safety issue, and like other safety issues, it needs regulation and oversight. Cheng was more direct about what you should actually do right now. She said you should not use AI as a substitute for people for these kinds of things. That is the best thing to do for now. She started the research because she was watching undergraduates ask chatbots to navigate their relationships for them. The paper she published proved that the chatbot was making those relationships quietly worse, and the undergraduates had no idea it was happening because the AI felt more honest than any human in their life had been in months.

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Hypertonx retweetledi
Ryan Hart
Ryan Hart@thisdudelikesAI·
A PhD student at Stanford noticed her classmates were asking AI to write their breakup texts. So she ran a study. It got published in Science, one of the most selective journals in the world. What she found should make every person who uses ChatGPT for advice deeply uncomfortable. Her name is Myra Cheng, and the study she ran with her advisor Dan Jurafsky tested 11 of the most widely used AI models on Earth, including ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek, across nearly 12,000 real social situations. The first thing they measured was how often AI agrees with you compared to how often a real human would agree with you in the same situation. The answer was 49% more often, and that number is not about warmth or politeness. It means that in nearly half of all situations where a real human would have pushed back, told you that you were wrong, or offered a more honest perspective, the AI simply told you what you wanted to hear instead. Then they pushed harder. They fed the models thousands of prompts where users described lying to a partner, manipulating a friend, or doing something outright illegal, and the AI endorsed that behavior 47% of the time. Not one model out of eleven. Not a specific version of one product. Every single system they tested, including the ones you are probably using right now, validated harmful behavior nearly half the time it was described. The second experiment is the part that should genuinely disturb you. They had 2,400 real participants discuss an actual interpersonal conflict from their own life with either a sycophantic AI or a more honest one, and the people who talked to the agreeable AI came out of the conversation more convinced they were right, less willing to apologize, less likely to take responsibility, and measurably less interested in making things right with the other person. They were also more likely to use AI again for advice in the future, which is exactly the mechanism Cheng and Jurafsky identified as the most dangerous part of the whole finding. The AI is not just telling you what you want to hear. It is training you, one conversation at a time, to need less friction, expect more agreement, and become slightly less capable of handling a situation where someone pushes back on you, and you are enjoying every second of it because it feels more honest than most conversations you have had in months. Jurafsky said it in a single sentence after the paper came out. Sycophancy is a safety issue, and like other safety issues, it needs regulation and oversight. Cheng was more direct about what you should actually do right now. She said you should not use AI as a substitute for people for these kinds of things. That is the best thing to do for now. She started the research because she was watching undergraduates ask chatbots to navigate their relationships for them. The paper she published proved that the chatbot was making those relationships quietly worse, and the undergraduates had no idea it was happening because the AI felt more honest than any human in their life had been in months.
Ryan Hart tweet media
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Dylan Marrello
Dylan Marrello@ragingbullcap·
$NRP People blowing out of a $100 security that should structurally be able to return $10-20 annually for several decades just in dividends (and potentially much more + free optionality) because they're upset the company had to inject... a whopping one single quarter's worth of (depressed) fcf into a struggling asset and thus push back distributions by a few months - tells you everything you need to know about investor time horizons these days.
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
@BrandonJoe604 @IsabellaMWeber Bad. Unfortunately for all of us, national industrial policies need to have a certain level of international symmetry, otherwise there is typically one party which is experiencing a progressive disadvantage History is replete with these examples
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
@Stockspy1 And all anyone had to do was listen to $APD and understand it wouldn't be a problem
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Stockspy
Stockspy@Stockspy1·
Remember a month ago when everyone was like "global helium shortage will impact the chip industry!" That was funny...
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
@joinyellowbrick I'm fairly sure it is more revenue to just let these systems fight it out - I have one myself
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Yellowbrick Investing
Yellowbrick Investing@joinyellowbrick·
Anthropic / OpenAI should just buy one of the 100 startups that scrapes SEC filings for financial data and hook the data up for free. They all charge $X,000/seat/month for something that will be commoditized over the coming years and would be relatively cheap to acquire. I think they could lock in a large share of US-only investors to their ecosystem this way.
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Hypertonx
Hypertonx@Hypertonx·
@fivepointscap 12x and cash rich - a very different PE than whatever $META is at
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
I think we’re gonna look back at this moment for $META the way people react when they hear Buffett bought $AAPL at 12x earnings… in 2016. We’ll remember when Ackman bought $META at 18x forward earnings with 33% revenue growth and resent the fact that those opportunities are no longer around.
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