Hypertonx Economics

This is a cherry picked quote - way more bearish than the actual $APD call was, everyone needs to relax

@moatpatrol_ @FromValue Can't use FCF given their lending business (probably) But, also, it makes it look extremely cheap... which maybe it is

@FromValue EV/Gross Profit is not a useful metric. Excludes everything investors care about: operating expenses, capex, debt expense, working capital, etc. Much better to use a metric like EV/FCF to show how much cash a company is actually generating

$MELI trades at an EV/Gross Profit of just 6.18, the lowest in at least a decade, probably longer. What's your excuse for not buying the stock now? 🤔

It is interesting reading all the takes on #gold - why isn't gold rising in this environment? I have a pet theory - one that is mildly incoherent with prices in other markets but w/e If Iran stops being a potential source of chaos, the implication is bearish for gold prices, despite budget deficits This is because, in theory, it also changes the analysis of China and its potential to cause international chaos So, the theory goes, success in Iran implies less future chaos in the world Gold, then, will be more drive by budget deficits - which, while still very high, technically are coming down as a percent of GDP Obviously a lot of gold miners are still not expensive on $4500/oz or $4000/oz gold but sentiment in gold prices will directly translate into equity share price moves In that view, the gold trade lately has been a lot of "buy the rumor, sell the news"

We literally talked about this endlessly during the Biden admin

321 crack at $57/bbl How high can we go I wonder? With Martinez (PBF) and end of turnarounds (MPC) their throughput can get to : 900,000 bbl/day for $PBF 2,800,000 bbl/day $MPC Is that good? 😂

@Silver__Santa There is no chance… it has to be liquidity driven… that’s just too stupid 😂

@Hypertonx Instead of 4 rate cuts, they now expect 1 rate hike

Everyone is expecting #RATEHIKES. That's stupid. It won't happen. First the US debt IS at $39T and growing faster as ever. Rate hikes mean even higher interest on the debt. It's now already one of the highest US depenses. Second a lot of low interest debt will roll over to the already higher current rates. If these rates hike then the problem will be even BIGGER when these debts roll over. #FACTS. The only solution is high inflation to devalue the debt, and low rates to lower the interest on the debt. #COUNT on it.

321 crack at $55/bbl $MPC $PBF $VLO etc

@MDBBolsa The sentiment around the stock is very bad - my views haven't changed but there is no point spitting in the wind The situation in the world HAS changed however - the strait of hormuz situation is going to dominate short term

@Hypertonx Hey mate. What are your thoughts on $CELH? It's been a while since you've mentioned it, and I love your opinions on it

Sold out of $ASIX - decided I didn't like their sulfur input exposure - still a relatively cheap chemical play

@11thestate AI Slop city

With all the buzz around $CELH lately, here's something worth noting: #Celsius is already facing an investor lawsuit — covering multiple allegations. We're not making predictions, but it's worth a look. Always good to know the full context.

Let's say we TACO very soon and get a persistent deescalation This would be bullish naturally, that's probably consensus However, it seems to me, the situation might really be absurdly bullish... Psychologically, be combining a number of things all at once: (1) we would have defanged a problematic regime, (2) seriously and extraordinarily demonstrated our relative commodity independence (again), (3) the AI bull story seems like it will come back on with a vengeance --after all, the developments since Opus 4.6 (only back in Feb) feel really quite significant; a threshold was passed with Opus 4.6, Codex 5.3 and GPT 5.4, imo. Openclaw is working its way into the zeitgeist, (4) US energy companies will be making good money and our energy advantage will be moderately increased, (5) The psychological and longer term economic dividends of the Venezuela "excursion" will mount, And if Cuba begins a reform process -- a big if but let's be bullish -- how can this not alter the psyche of "global capital"? Seems like quite the concoction for animal spirits to me

Short term, I understand this narrative But being bullish gold is about budget deficits About global complexities and uncertainties At this scale of budget deficits, the treasury is as much a steward of the USD as the Fed

@bucketshopcap hindsight, foresight, insight my favorite part was the changing of authors after the fact tho - was a really nice touch

In hindsight that Citritas or whatever report was fucking retarded.

@GavMcCracken I can make the case against thinking of them as a refining play if you like - its better as a bet on oil in general

@Hypertonx They supply 20% of Canada's domestic fuel needs themselves... Canada won't windfall tax them. Everyone else is going to be windfall taxed

Like 2million barrels of refining capacity has gone offline in the last 48 hours and it's not even the weekend yet. I'm starting to think I need to buy $CLMT to back up my $SU $SU.TO...

If we get a TACO here and a de-escalation, it's worth pointing out the medium term crack outlook is significantly higher than it was before the war - and it was high pre-war $MPC, $PBF, $VLO Everything else? I'm less sure atm

@Nietschecapital Its become a battle ground stock, frustration going to be part of the game now

$app im getting really pissed off rn. once again another Bloomberg piece that has nothing to do with the company. Management you guys got to get dirty you have to fight back hard because this is war against your company and business execution and buybacks alone will not cut it

I feel like coal prices are still quite modest for all the rallying we see 🤔

Chance we see ATH here, imo $PBF is just fundamentally healthier than it was when we entered 2022 Furthermore, the CA crack market is just tighter than ever - keep in mind CA depends on imported refined products