Gengha

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Gengha

Gengha

@ILikeBasil_

industrialist. philanthropist. bicyclists.

Nexus of the universe Katılım Kasım 2011
744 Takip Edilen135 Takipçiler
Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@jtaquino002 by your logic, you dont trust Microsoft to uphold their $10b contract? you need to see it to trust it? if you're waiting for absolute certainty where you can see it in the TTM numbers, you've missed it. Investing is about discounting *future* cash flows, not TTM
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AQ Alpha
AQ Alpha@jtaquino002·
@ILikeBasil_ Gotta show me something. Investing is not gambling. Let’s start with $100 million of revenues - before we even consider the possibility of a company making billions. I know what $IREN said but it needs to earn the investors trust. Their market cap is $15b that’s rich
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AQ Alpha
AQ Alpha@jtaquino002·
Another day with no new deal for $IREN. TTM AI revenues remain at $16 million. Market cap is $14 billion. ATM offering $6b. I would never risk the money I worked hard for to invest in a company like this. It’s a very expensive stock. NFA. DYOR
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
Option A: look at the screen/oil price Option B: touch sand.
Gengha tweet media
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Emanuel Ajay Datt
Emanuel Ajay Datt@eadatt·
Those that sold the Tech bottom yesterday
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@eadatt At this point, you have to assume she wants to lose to avoid dealing with the absolute disaster of a balance sheet being left behind.
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Emanuel Ajay Datt
Emanuel Ajay Datt@eadatt·
Unemployment to rise in Victoria? Why hire expensive local talent (who can choose to work remotely), when you can hire cheaper off-shore talent who will work remotely in any case? Shambolic policy
Emanuel Ajay Datt tweet media
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Gengha retweetledi
Sleepwell🛌
Sleepwell🛌@SleepwellCap·
so let me get this straight: PSKY approaches WBD for acquisition NFLX puts higher offer for WBD PSKY puts in even higher offer, at 7X leverage NFLX declines to match offer = Now PSKY+WBD will have to license all their content to NFLX to payoff all that debt 3D Chess♟️
Sleepwell🛌 tweet media
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@TrungTPhan Cintrini put forward a thought piece suggesting everyone is gonig to stave. Block, a bloasted mid-western trucker who hasn't had a vegetable since the 80's, saying they are going to cut out sugar and slim down to fat from morbidly obese... it's not quite the same thing
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Trung Phan
Trung Phan@TrungTPhan·
Citrini Research after getting cooked non-stop for 3 days for saying mass white-collar unemployment was coming becaue your grandma could vibe code Doordash or Visa replacements seeing Block lay off 40% of its 10,000 person team:
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
Forget 2028. In 2026, the biggest loser will be SaaS employees who will quickly see SBC cut from comp packages. GAAP becoming the focus from the board down from market pressure. Short the discretionary basket that overindexes to tech workers.
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@ParvenuCapital @sequentanalyst @blondesnmoney Good sir, you have no place in this market speaking such intelligence. Intelligence is strictly the copyright of Anthropic now, you are merely a labour pool waiting to be eradicated. The amount people understand about the service element of what many do is staggering.
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Parvenu Capital
Parvenu Capital@ParvenuCapital·
Yes, when you’re providing the marketing, customer service, being merchant of record, handling the +90 FX payment types. Look at how much OTAs pay Google for search traffic. $BKNG and $EXPE paid Google alone $15bn, while only making $12bn in EBITDA. If I’m Anthropic, do I go after Google’s profit pool which is literally just top of funnel demand aggregation? Seems more realistic to me than going after the smaller profit pool that’ll require them to replicate the OTA infrastructure (not easy).
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Cluseau Investments
Cluseau Investments@blondesnmoney·
Anyone else think travel agents are the next thing to be disrupted? Forward a flight confirmation email to Cluade and it takes care of your hotel for you? Seems like it is bound to happen eventually.
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@undrvalue Add to your buy list: - Gun manufacturers - Tool manufacturers for construction sector (going to be plenty more people doing manual labour debating Milwaukee vs Mikita)
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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
A worthwhile read. If you take it at face value, which is a stretch: Buy - AI physical infrastructure (semiconductors/chips like NVDA/TSMC ecosystem, data centers/hyperscalers, energy/power ie nuclear, utilities, copper) - Crisis defensives (gold/precious metals, short-term U.S. Treasuries, cash/liquidity) Sell - Everything else
Citrini@Citrini7

JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@Thombody Just to clarify, did the greens demand Hamas hand back the babies, children and adults they kidnapped, raped and murdered in the name of human rights? if not, how come? genuine question... how come our greens party didnt have the moral clarity to demand terrorist act humanly
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@stockgeekTV @williamready correction, cut 50% of the staff and all of the SBC. then buy back everything. but lets be real, for this to happen, every 'tech' person in the c-suite needs to go and some suits need to take over the playroom. so it will never happen.
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stockgeek 📈
stockgeek 📈@stockgeekTV·
$PINS now trading ~9X EV/FCF or ~11X P/FCF, priced for zero future growth basically If I'm @williamready, I cut the insane SBC in half and buy back 20% of the share count this year
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
The new AI trade.
John Arnold tweet media
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
@ShipAloneCEO More making the point that the generic chart every 'value' manager refers to about value vs growth, no one ever asks how it's put together and how categories can/will switch between.
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ShipAloneCEO
ShipAloneCEO@ShipAloneCEO·
@ILikeBasil_ Feels like SaaS split into two buckets now, durable vertical or workflow tools look more value, anything chasing expansion multiples still gets priced like growth. Public comps probably decide the label more than the product.
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
question for all the growth vs value crowd: is SaaS still in growth bucket or is it now value?
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
the market gods looking at everyone selling today
GIF
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Gengha
Gengha@ILikeBasil_·
Maybe.. just maybe.. $GOOG capex guide was less for investors to fret over ROIC and more a message to OAI.. "you poked the bear, now i'll bleed you out'? or.. there might actually be a ROI, in which case no one will know how to comprehend that
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M. V. Cunha
M. V. Cunha@mvcinvesting·
🚨 JUST IN: $GOOGL guides for 2026 CapEx of $175-185B vs. $119.5B expected. Extremely bullish for AI infrastructure stocks. $NBIS $CRWV $IREN $CIFR
M. V. Cunha tweet media
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