Emanuel Ajay Datt

Resource economy vs paper economy

@toy59496 I've got to write a longer form article on this

$WTC.AX : Debt Sensitivity / Valuation I have done a debt sensitivity analysis of wisetech given sticky inflation and the associated interest rate and discount rate risks. I still remember during Covid being burnt by OilSearch which seemed remarkably cheap but this was simply a ramification of unsustainable debt. It is no longer a listed entity because it was obviously swimming naked as Buffett would say. I wanted to make sure that we weren't working in the same space with Wisetech. We aren't. Two thirds of that debt is hedged and we would need a significant deterioration in the variable rate to breach a covenant. My conclusion is that it remains deeply undervalued and is being missed by all and sundry because they are put off by the stigma of Richard White. I see no other compelling reason why it is undervalued and I have picked deeply over the terrain. Feel free to disagree with me and to tell me why.... Do your own due diligence I am not your fiduciary. Deep Dive Downside Risks x.com/toy59496/statu… Story of Short Interest x.com/toy59496/statu… Original Valuation x.com/toy59496/statu… Updated Valuation x.com/toy59496/statu…

🇪🇺 EU gas storage levels are on track to move beyond the 2020–2024 historical range. The market is entering uncharted territory.

Production at top of guidance, costs & capex at bottom of guidance. Balance sheet is rock solid, low cost of capital & BMA acquisition all but paid off without needing equity, during a bear market & running a buyback. Business has massive leverage to coal prices & can survive the soft periods. Paul is the 🐐 $WHC.AX #coaltwitter

EU natural gas inventories in % of full - EU at 55.35% Germany at 45.98%, Italy at 73.97%, France at 54.25%, Netherlands at 34.94%, Austria at 59.33%, Spain at 72.25% agsi.gie.eu

oh dear

Any reason why they're testing AusAlert now?

you, an imbecile, learning to prompt LLMs better me, also an imbecile, learning to prompt google better

I have been so happy that @respeculator has returned to writing long form content, legit the best news i've seen in a long time...whilst he focuses only on mining/metals/etc, he's straight up one of the best at catching turns in names he's prev been the other side on...a rare skill, have seen him do it multiple times over the years (flipping bullish or bearish when circumstances change) and make $$ doing so... highly recommend you subscribe to his work, i always learn something, thanks again mate for all you contribute! theresourcespeculator.substack.com/?utm_source=ho…

A global fight for LNG is brewing. And Europe is losing 🇪🇺 ⚠️ Europe’s strategy of delaying LNG purchases until Hormuz reopens is backfiring, threatening efforts for refill storage for winter Asian rivals, meanwhile, are securing LNG as the Middle East conflict intensifies

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

Old enough to remember when we had an "oil glut" on the 1st of July 😆

🪨 + ⛏️ + 🚢 = $$$

China back on the bid. Europe's gas storage is critically low & won't hit refill targets due to slow injections, lost Russian flows, Middle East disruptions cutting Qatari LNG, & aggressive Asian competition.. #TTF #LNG #coaltwitter $YAL.AX $WHC.AX $NHC.AX $SMR.AX $BTU

When software was expensive - thin, horizontal, best-of-breed software stacks extracted rents across every business. Now that software is cheap - value moves to vertically integrated businesses that deliver opinionated end-to-end experiences.

#coal $WHC.AX $YAL.AX $TER.AX $NHC.AX $SMR.AX $TGA.L $CNR

Periodic reminder that AGL's annual report shows the cost of running Loy Yang A (brown coal VIC) and Bayswater (black coal NSW) is under $40/MWh. Meanwhile the combined total of - green compliance (33.2) - rooftop solar (45.4) - renewables (47.1) is $125.8/MWh. Looking forward to seeing the 2026 numbers.

Winter is on the horizon and there's not enough LNG to go around for restocking. JKM spiked to $70 in August 2022 with Russian supply out of bounds. Today Qatar has called force majeur on LNG exports until October and its >2x Russian supply. 👀 Very high LNG moon potential

Former Labor luminaries bringing forth some hard facts Link: afr.com//politics/fede…