Ian Lazarus
786 posts
Literally just having a delusional golden retriever mindset measurably changes outcomes and physiology. Sleep badly? Convince yourself you're well rested. Stressful day? Convince yourself it's fuel. Failed? Convince yourself it's useful data.
People still think $OPEN is just an iBuyer. That's like thinking $CVNA is just a car dealer. It's not. The car was never the business. Finance & insurance were. Today: CVNA gross profit per unit = $7,024 And 40% of that comes from financing. Now think about houses. Average home price ≈ $365K Average car price ≈ $25K Every financial attachment on a house generates 10–15x more dollars than the same attachment on a car. Mortgage. Title. Insurance. Closing services. The home becomes the distribution channel. The financial stack becomes the business. Kaz built Shop Pay Installments from zero to dominant in a year. He just launched a 4.99% mortgage at OPEN. Same playbook. Meanwhile the cost structure is collapsing: • Headcount down ~40% • Rabois thinks the platform can run with ~200 people • AI does the underwriting, pricing, and workflow That's operating leverage the Street isn't modeling. If OPEN reaches $20B revenue and attaches financial products like CVNA did… Gross profit ≈ $4B+ At CVNA's current EV/GP multiple that implies roughly: OPEN at $80+ per share. And that assumes no premium for faster growth. The old debate was: "Does iBuying work?" The better question now is: Is Opendoor quietly becoming a housing fintech platform? Because if that's the right framing… $82 might end up being the floor, not the target. People asking for OPEN targets: End of 2026: $18-28 End of 2027: $80-110 End of 2028: $130-180 Using forward EV/GP, not EV/Revenue. The math works at a discount to CVNA's current multiple. It works even better if you give OPEN a growth premium for 80%+ YoY.
BREAKING: President Trump calls for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, effective January 20th.
imo @SahilBloom launching a skincare brand is a MASSIVE miss. I don’t know the backstory. Maybe it’s his brother’s passion project and Sahil is just the face - idk But here’s the real point. As you get bigger. More influence. More access. More leverage. The most important skill becomes knowing what to say NO to. $300k in 3 months is nothing for someone at Sahil’s level. I have a friend with under 3k followers on X doing $400k a month with an agency. That’s a micro-authority aligned with the brand. That makes sense. The loss here isn’t “only” making $300k. It’s the opportunity cost. It’s the other 10 businesses he could’ve touched that might’ve scaled to $20M, $50M, $200M with the right leverage. Selling overpriced, minimalist, Gen Z soap isn’t it for a guy who rubs shoulders with billionaires. Just my take - what do i know 🤷♂️
Cold email is slept on for B2B Running cold email campaigns is a similar cost to running ads, but the leads are higher quality I ran a test Had a 74% show rate for meetings booked from email, versus just 61% for ads High intent B2B buyers are using email all day, not Facebook
