Dan Wallace

Ferguson’s Law: A great power is in trouble when its interest payments exceed defense expenditures. Since 2024, the US has crossed Ferguson’s RED LINE.

A chilling story leading the Minneapolis Star Tribune this morning this morning. ICE agents followed Minnesota Democratic lawmakers who had been critical of ICE in the state, stopping multiple times to take pictures of their houses. This is what a police state does

How glorious!

@amconmag Isn't that what Putin called his war? Mimicking his heroes.

President Trump on the Democrats: "They call it a war. I call it a military operation."

Only following people who agree with you is a recipe for confirmation bias and groupthink. Critical thinking depends on listening to people who question your assumptions and challenge your conclusions. Learning is the product of engaging with a range of thoughtful views.

@MinneapolisFed @JeffHorwich Thanks for the reality check Jeff.

The idea of the "K-shaped economy" seems to be everywhere lately. But is it in the data? Sr Econ Writer @JeffHorwich set off in pursuit of the "K," pulling together available sources on U.S. consumers. The upshot? The K-shaped trend is far from clear. bit.ly/4bEbIdo

@KellerOfCapsule Easier to have a goatee and play in a jazz band.

@Ideafood I think you should make the effort!

Woodworking. You Dan? @Ideafood

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

@goldseek @mtmalinen @POTUS He is weak minded.

@mtmalinen @POTUS Boy it makes Trump, US look weak

What just happened? Oil prices collapse by over 20%

@yieldcurveghost What percentage of my wealth should be held in an asset that no institution can freeze, no government can debase, and no crisis can make unavailable?

Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds all crashing in unison. This is the ATM scenario playing out in real time. Phase 1 officially activated. x.com/yieldcurveghos…

There is always a tweet.

I’m trying to avoid posting for Lent, but I want to be clear about my position, as it seems we may be on the brink of decisions of historic consequence: The US & Israel were the ones who launched a sneak attack against Iran. Trump himself compared it to the attack on Pearl Harbor. We opened the war with an attack that killed nearly 200 little girls at school. If the Japanese had done that at Pearl Harbor, it would still be on page one of every history book recounting the attack to this day. To then punish the civilian population of Iran by destroying power and water infrastructure, which can only be intended to cause mass civilian suffering and death, simply because they have not capitulated, is a war crime of the highest order. Soldiers, sailors, and airmen are under no obligation to follow such an order, and shame on any officer who orders them to do so.

@AmoneyResists I saw the attack here on this platform in 2016. I had swarm of Russian bots respond to my anti-Trump messages, and when I accused them of being bots, individually, each said "I am not a bot."

Mueller was a Republican hired by a Republican to investigate Russia’s attack on our elections. His finding that they attacked the 2016 election “in sweeping & systematic fashion” was confirmed by every intelligence agency as well as the bipartisan senate intelligence committee.

@position_trader Thanks for the reminder.

The ability to not worry about things not under your control is a superpower. Especially in times like this. True for life. True for investing.

@DariusDale42 Thanks for your analysis Darius. It's good to hear independent voices like yours and @RayDalio @LynAldenContact Would love to hear your analysis of the recent gold correction.

ICYMI… don’t… unless you plan to have your retirement severely delayed or disrupted by six sigma events. 💜

I’ve been through four systemic risk-induced crises so far: GFC, Covid, Russia/Ukraine, & now this. This is by far the worst! I’m just devastated by the imagination of the global impact, the human loss, the severe poverty crisis & the political turmoil that are about to hit us.

President Trump over the last 36 hours: Friday, 3:40 PM ET: "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran." Friday, 5:15 PM ET: The US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran. Today, 2:00 PM ET: Axios reports Trump is planning "peace talks." Now: "If Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will obliterate Iran's power plants." What's happening behind the scenes?

@KellerOfCapsule Change can be good.

Term limits @Ideafood // diapers have limits, politicians should too.