Holo

This is not the time to be bearish. This is my bear case valuation for Metaplanet which is ALOT higher than where it’s trading today. 1/ BTC Holdings Metaplanet currently holds 30,823 BTC, the most pristine capital in the world. With 1.14B outstanding shares and BTC spot at ~$96k, this gives us about ~$2.97B of BTC NAV and ~$2.6 per share of BTC. 2/ Options Income Generation Metaplanet has been ramping up their options income generation and the revenues it generates is increasing at a substantial rate Q/Q with no signs of slowing down. For reference - they generated $4.4M in Q4 ‘24, $5.14M in Q1 ’25, $7.8M in Q2 ’25 and $16.48M in Q3 ’25. I believe this number will continue to increase even if they never do another MSW again for a few reasons. Metaplanet has about ~$132M from the previous international offering dedicated for this strategy. They also tapped into another 100M from the 500M line of credit they have and can tap more if needed. Preferred share offerings are coming which unlocks 25% of their NAV. If MSW comes back then this number will explode even higher. For this calculation I’ll assume the bear case that their options income generation will stay stagnant and never increase again. We’ll get an annualized run rate of $65.92M based on the numbers from Q3 ’25. That gives us an earnings of 5.8 cents per share. Putting a simple 5x multiple on that gives us 29 cents per share. 3/ Preferred Share Offerings Metaplanet will be able to tap into 25% of their NAV initially with these products. It’ll be a feedback loop as more preferreds means more BTC to back more preferreds. Japan is an extremely low rate environment and Bitcoin is an asset with high CAGR that I can easily see with >40% CAGR. Let’s assume the bear case and assume Bitcoin will have a CAGR of 25% going forward and Metaplanet will have to pay the full 6% dividend. That means they will be able to capture 19% difference yearly for free. The beauty here is that shareholders won’t have to worry about share dilution as the dividends will be paid from either the options income strategy and/or from Project Nova. This gives us about >12 cents of free arbitrage per share from issuing preferreds for just the first year and will increase yearly. I view this as profit for the company as it’s arbitraging price difference for packaging product into another product. There’s no difference between what they’re doing and a paper making plant turning wood into paper and arbitraging the price difference between the wood and the paper. So it makes sense to me to place a simple 5x multiple on the value which gives us 60 cents per share. 4/ Project Nova Metaplanet has already bought bitcoin.jp and kicked off its initiative for Project Nova. There hasn’t been too much information released on this so I will not assign a value per share for now. However it is worth noting that this will help enable preferred shares without any dilution. The power between project Nova and options income strategy is the company will be able to leverage paying a small dividend to capture the full value Bitcoin’s CAGR. Think of it as paying near 0 interest rates on a home mortgage but you capture the home appreciation of >30%. This is how generational wealth is created for folks in the real estate industry. 5/ Cash & Debt Metaplanet has $124.27M in debt but has around ~232M in cash (~$132M cash from I/O and 100M cash from line of credit). This gives us ~9.4 cents per share. 6/ MSW & Conclusion Summing up the different parts of business listed above for Metaplanet then we’ll get a bear case of $3.58 a share today vs $2.37 per share today. This represents a mNAV of 1.38 much higher than the 0.96 mNAV today. If a company can justify its >1 mNAV then they will unlock the ability to dilute accretively PERMANENTLY. How much premium do you think the ability to generate BTC yield is? The more BTC yield a company can generate, the more premium a company will deserve and the more premium a company has, the more BTC yield they can generate. The fundamentals are strong, the opportunity is there. You are not bullish enough. $MTPLF #メタプラネット 3350

@stayfreeCanada2 @grok is this true?

CANADA IS NOW RUNNING ADS ON TV FOR SAME DAY SUICIDE. ( A WORLD'S FIRST! ) This place is not only a failed state but a sick, EVIL and truly demented failed state. Fk You Canada!! Psychotic Retards!! I am SOOO glad I'm getting the fk out of here!!

株主さま限定！カード利用金額の1.6%相当をBTCに還元。 メタプラネットカード、この夏開始。 毎日の決済を、ビットコインと日本の未来へ。

@saskatchewan_in @grok is this real?

Oh no!!!! Whatever will the elbowzos crowd bitch about now!?! 🤣🤣🤣

Forget mNAV. This is the key relationship that determines whether or not a Bitcoin Treasury Company's ATM issuance is accretive: MCap > (BTC NAV - Prefs - Debt + Cash)

Metaplanet published a great detailed breakdown of their recent raise and warrant issue. Let's take a deeper look. What stands out to me is not so much the top line figures, but what deal structure and guidance revisions suggest about the current fundraising environment and adaptations to it. Firstly, it should come as no surprise that with a bitcoin bear market in full swing, it is currently a much more challenging environment to raise capital in. We see this directly reflected in both deal structure and MSW guidance. 1) Embracing volatility traders. Prior messaging had been that Metaplanet wished to pursue long only investors and avoid convertible bonds, in part due to the deleterious effects on share price of convert short hedging. Nonetheless, the equity + warrant deal is a pseudo-CB structure designed for volatility traders. The dip subsequent to deal announcement suggests short hedges being placed. However, unlike convertible bonds, the equity + warrants structure introduces no new debt, maturity risk, or senior claims to Metaplanet's bitcoin. This keeps the balance sheet pristine for preferred share issuance. In effect, this raise represents something of a compromise in order to increase the bitcoin collateral base in advance of preferred share listings. And, for a reality check on current market conditions, bitcoin treasuries looking to raise capital now are likely limited to volatility traders as potential institutional investors. 2) Deal pricing is lower than might be expected. Equity + warrants provide far less downside protection than a convertible bond with guaranteed return of principal. So naturally, the pricing would be expected to be lower than a convertible bond. The weighted average across pricing is roughly equivalent to issuing a convertible bond at a 9% premium. As some noted, the warrants were priced at a significant discount to Black-Scholes pricing. However, institutional deals are never priced at full IV. Strategy's convertible bonds, for instance, were typically priced at 50%+ discounts to implied volatility. Even so, and bear market conditions notwithstanding, I can't help but feel warrant pricing could have been higher. Management's own statements indicate the deal was priced favorably as part of relationship maintenance with investors who are under water on prior institutional raises. Which makes sense to a point, but under water retail investors unable to avail themselves of the same deal understandably have some misgivings. 3) Revised mNAV guidance. The target range of 3x-7x mNAV for MSW exercise has been phased out in favor of a >1x mNAV mandate. Which is formally codified into the MSWs with a requirement to only be exercised when share price exceeds 1.01x mNAV. This represents a significant downward revision, but also requires a reality check for current market conditions. At time of writing, Metaplanet stock trades at ~1x mNAV and is unlikely to trade at higher multiples until bitcoin re-enters a bull market. If you want Metaplanet to raise at 3x-7x mNAV here, it's simply not happening. It's not a management issue, it's a time point in the bitcoin cycle issue. As it stands, I think it is to Metaplanet's benefit to continue increasing the size of its balance sheet even if at 1x mNAV (i.e., net accretion is zero) for two reasons: 1) The total amount of capital needed to be raised to increase bitcoin holdings is significantly lower at current bitcoin prices. 2) A larger bitcoin collateral base paves the way for increased preferred share issuance. When preferred shares become the main strategy, common stock issuance has to be viewed as one leg of the pref trade. This is exactly the same thing I have been saying about Strategy. Of course, the larger question is, "When are preferred share listings coming?" Metaplanet has already issued shares of Mercury via private allotment, but it is really the public listing of MARS (Metaplanet's equivalent of $STRC) that is key. Public listing allows for proper price discovery and broader participation through increased liquidity and public access. A listing any time in 2026 would likely enable Metaplanet to fund bitcoin at very attractive prices. In sum, I am not going to say that Metaplanet's raise was a slam dunk, because it is not. But I do see the rationale for Metaplanet continuing to expand its bitcoin collateral base in the context of broader strategy, and shareholders need to have a much more sober view of what fundraising terms are possible under bitcoin bear market conditions. It's a buyer's market. That said, it's worth noting that Metaplanet is one of only a handful of BTCTCs that has been able to raise any capital at all in the past 6 months. This will change when bitcoin re-enters a bull market. But this is where are right now. English version of Metaplanet's presentation here: t.co/YTNrxsM06s

Breaking down our latest raise. Our single KPI is Bitcoin per share. Every capital decision we make gets measured against that. After our last institutional offering, we heard from shareholders that they wanted us to think differently about how we raise capital. The demand was still clear: more Bitcoin. So here's what we did. Japanese PIPEs typically price at a ~10% discount to market. We sold shares at a 2% premium to market and packaged our equity vol into fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium. The company gets immediate capital to grow the Bitcoin balance sheet. If the stock goes higher and warrants are exercised, we receive additional capital at a price above today's market. The investors get to express a view on volatility. This isn't zero-sum. Both sides can win. This is the same playbook MSTR pioneered with convertible bonds. A 0% coupon convert was a bond and an embedded call option packaged into one security. The coupon was zero because the embedded option on a levered BTC vehicle was so valuable it replaced the coupon entirely. The bondholder wasn't lending for free. They were paying for vol. Saylor understood this before anyone else in BTC and it unlocked a new paradigm for Bitcoin treasury capital formation. Same principle, different wrapper. We used stock plus warrants instead of converts, so there's no debt, no maturity risk, no overhang, no ongoing dividend or interest payments. The capital structure stays clean with no debt sitting above equity holders, and that's by design. When we issue preferred shares, the balance sheet underneath needs to be pristine. Every Bitcoin we add strengthens that foundation. The bigger the base, the more credible the credit. We are intentionally building this to become the dominant issuer of Bitcoin backed fixed income instruments in Japan. And finally, we run one of the most active BTC derivatives books in the world. Every scenario here has been stress tested and is being managed, including the tail risk on future warrant exercise. We built this company around Bitcoin volatility and BTC Yield. This is what we do. This is permanent capital with no ongoing cost. The proceeds go to Bitcoin. ~$255M now. Up to ~$531M on exercise. March toward 210,000 BTC continues.

Took a small position in $MARA. Trading <1 mNAV to their BTC holdings and has 1.8+ GW of power at their disposal that could be load balanced with AI inference. Pretty deep value. Will add if more discounts come.

@ManusAI @grok can we replace the model with a local model running on a macbook and use this for free?

Today, we're taking Manus out of the cloud and putting it on your desktop. Introducing My Computer, the core feature of the new Manus Desktop app. It’s your AI agent, now on your local machine.

Metaplanet has raised ~$255m from global institutional investors via a placement of new shares priced at a 2% premium, paired with fixed-strike warrants at a 10% premium that monetize our equity volatility for up to ~$276m in additional capital upon exercise. Up to ~$531m in additional firepower on our march towards 210,000 BTC. $MPJPY

@CK_Cryptoklepto I got a small entry this week... Reeally wish I went heavier in damn..

By now, everyone knows that $MARA just delivered a monster earnings call with a slew of bullish updates that will force even the loudest haters to reconsider their bear case Speaking of which, how are they planning to cover the 111 million shares that they sold short tomorrow?

JUST IN: Metaplanet $MTPLF Director Dylan LeClair just said when #Bitcoin goes parabolic treasury company balance sheets will go fully "reflexive" "We know how this plays out." Believe it 🔥 #StrategyWorld2026

匿名アカウントの裏に隠れて、何の責任も負うことなく他者を非難し、炎上させることは簡単です。しかし、私は自らの発言とメタプラネットの行動すべてに対して公の場で責任を負うことに何の抵抗もありません。そのため、寄せられている各主張に対して、直接お答えします。 開示が不誠実だという主張は扇動的であり、事実に反しています。過去6か月間、ボラティリティが大幅に上昇したため、私たちはより多くの資本をインカム事業に振り向け、プットやプットスプレッドを売却することでそのボラティリティを活用してきました。これらの資金はオプションポジションとして積極的に運用されています。その一部は長期保有を目的としたビットコイン購入に充当されており、当該判断が決定された時点で速やかに開示しています。一方、当社のビットコインアドレスは全て公開されており、ライブダッシュボードを通じて株主の皆様は保有状況をリアルタイムで確認することが可能です。私たちは世界で最も透明性を備えた上場企業の一つです。 9月の購入について:投稿では、私たちが天井で購入し、その事実を黙っていたと主張されています。しかし、公開されているダッシュボードを確認すれば、全く異なるストーリーが示されています。私たちは9月中に4回のビットコイン購入を行い、そのすべてについて、その時点で速やかに公表しています。これらの情報は今すぐ誰でも確認できます。確かに、9月は局所的な天井となりました。それを否定するつもりはありません。しかし、私たちの戦略は市場のタイミングを計ることではありません。長期的かつ体系的にビットコインを蓄積していくことにあり、価格がどの水準で取引されているかに関わらず、すべての購入について一貫して開示を行っています。 オプション取引について:ここでの批判は、当社の戦略と財務諸表の読み方の双方に対する根本的な誤解を反映しています。プットオプションを売却することは、ビットコイン価格の上昇に賭ける行為ではありません。スポット価格で購入するよりも低いコストでビットコインを取得するための手段です。例えば、スポットが8万ドルの局面で、私たちが8万ドルでプットを売却し、1万ドルのプレミアムを受け取った場合、実効コストは7万ドルとなります。これは、公開市場で購入する投資家よりも有利な条件です。私たちはビットコインのボラティリティを株主の利益のために直接活用しており、Q4にこの戦略を通じて実効コストを大幅に引き下げました。1株当たりビットコイン、私たちの主要KPIは、2025年に500%以上増加しました。 財務諸表について:純利益は、ビットコイントレジャリー企業を評価するうえでの適切な指標ではありません。営業利益62億円、前年比1,694%増という数字は、当社戦略の質の高さを明確に示すものです。一方で、経常損失は、当社が決して売却しない長期保有ビットコイン保有分の未実現評価変動によってのみ生じているものです。この項目をもって戦略の失敗と結論づけることは分析ではありません。財務諸表の誤読です。 借入について:私たちは10月に信用枠を設定した時点、そして11月と12月に当該信用枠を引き出した時点の3回にわたり、個別に適時開示を行っております。借入額、担保の内容、金利構造、目的、条件はすべて開示されています。一方で、貸し手の身元と具体的な金利水準については、カウンターパーティーからの要請により非開示としています。金利条件は、メタプラネットにとって有利な水準であり、貸し手としては、他の借り手が同じ条件を求めることを望んでいないことが背景にあります。これらすべての情報は公開されています。借入契約を隠しているとの主張は、事実に反します。 資本と株主について:私はメタプラネットの大株主です。私は他のすべての株主の皆様と同様に、自身の資金をこの会社に投資しており、株価の下落を個人的に感じています。調達された資本は、その一円一円が、開示された内容通りに、かつ当社が明示してきた戦略に従って展開されています。メタプラネットは、ビットコインへのレバレッジを伴う投資機会を提供することを目的として設計されており、上昇局面においてビットコインをアウトパフォームする構造を有しています。今年の下落相場において、当社の株価はビットコインの24%に対して23%の下落にとどまっています。下落局面においてもアンダーパフォームしていません。ホテル事業が「荒廃している」という点についても事実ではありません。FY2025において、ホテル事業は4億3,700万円の売上収益に対して1億6,900万円の営業利益を計上しています。これらの数値は、どなたでも決算説明資料にて確認することができます。 メタプラネットへの批判は正当なものであれば、いつでも、誰からでも、どのようなチャネルを通じてでも歓迎します。しかし、すでに変動の激しい市場環境のなかで判断を迫られている株主の皆様に対して、事実に基づかない情報が流布されることは容認できません。真摯な質問や懸念がある場合、私はここにいます、連絡可能です、そして常に応答します。私は、私たちが行うすべての行動、そして発するすべての言葉に対して責任を負います。

Thank you to every Metaplanet shareholder. When we started this journey, we had a handful of believers. Today we have hundreds of thousands of shareholders around the world. That growth reflects trust, and we don't take it lightly for a single day. This has not been an easy period. Bitcoin is volatile and anyone holding it needs to accept that truth. Bitcoin's fixed supply, growing global adoption, and unique properties as a store of value are why we are convicted. But conviction doesn't make drawdowns painless, and I want to acknowledge that honestly. Our strategy remains unchanged. We exist to accumulate Bitcoin and grow Bitcoin per share, which we increased by over 500% in 2025. We will never sell our Bitcoin. Our derivatives strategy allows us to acquire Bitcoin at better prices than simply buying at spot, capitalizing on volatility in a sophisticated and risk-managed way, to the benefit of every shareholder. On where Bitcoin goes from here: I personally believe Bitcoin may have found a floor around $60,000, though I hold that view with humility. Nobody knows. What I do know is that it doesn't change our strategy. Over the long term, I have no doubt Bitcoin will be dramatically higher than it is today. Irrespective of near term price, we will continue to accumulate, continue to grow Bitcoin per share, and continue to lean into income generation through derivatives as a core pillar of how we operate. Short sellers, and critics of Bitcoin and Bitcoin treasury companies will always be loudest when prices are down. But that is rarely the right moment to abandon conviction. It is usually precisely the wrong moment. The future is bright. Every decision we make, every day, is made with gratitude toward our shareholders and with one goal in mind: to reward those who believe in this strategy for the long term.

Metaplanet's FY2025 results are genuinely impressive. One of the most underrated decisions is committing to pay dividends from operating income, not by diluting the common. This forces them to be disciplined. If they want to expand the preferred stack and meet obligations, they must grow revenue. Revenue is projected to double again in 2026. So you effectively have: -A business compounding operating cash flow at scale. -Funding dividends organically. -All whilst simultaneously building one of the largest Bitcoin treasuries globally. That's a pretty powerful combination. What makes $MTPLF unique is that it's not just a Bitcoin treasury vehicle, but also a profitable operating company that is rapidly growing. Very bullish on the trajectory and I'm a happy shareholder. Good stuff, keep it up @gerovich and @DylanLeClair.

おはプラネット。最近の株価動向を踏まえ、株主の皆さまにとって厳しい状況が続いていることは、私たちも十分に認識しています。しかしながら、メタプラネットの戦略に変更はありません。私たちは引き続き、ビットコインの積み上げ、収益の拡大、そして次の成長フェーズに向けた準備を、着実に進めています。日々の変動の中でも変わらずご支援をお寄せいただいている株主の皆さまに、心より感謝申し上げます。皆さまのご理解とご支援が、私たちの大きな力となっています。

Liquidation Map - $28b Shorts to $108000 and only $279m Longs to $62000

@ZynxBTC Good call. Snagged some up at 95. Will snag more if it goes lower.

Here we are again. I am buying more $STRC today. At $94.50, the effective dividend yield is ~11.9% ($11.25 at par at $100/share). I will then pocket the additional ~6% capital gain as it inevitably trades back up to par... which is what it's designed to do. Easy money.

@vinz0r @TJTheWheelDeal See yall at tonight's shift

@TJTheWheelDeal Got my job at McDonald's lined up.

Miss the vibe where some would say, don’t worry. You can buy it later for $100k! Oooof lol

Bitcoin is now BELOW its ‘Production Cost Model’. Historically, this has proven to be a great time to accumulate. Let’s see. h/t: @OnChainMind 🧠