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Daniel
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Daniel
@Incontext_
Some random with an interest in crypto. Nothing i say is financial advice.
Katılım Temmuz 2014
860 Takip Edilen361 Takipçiler
Daniel retweetledi
Not exactly sure how long after these companies IPO, but we are going to have a ruthless bear market in equities as employees and early investors unload their shares without relent
shirish@shiri_shh
The biggest IPO run in the history of the market three $1T+ companies. possibly all going public in the next 12 months. SpaceX IPO: $1.75T. OpenAI IPO: $1T Anthropic IPO: $1T we're living through the greatest technological wealth creation in history.
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Daniel retweetledi
growing up is realizing that literally no one gives a shit about you
maybe if you do something extremely rare and cool they’ll think about you for 10 min before they promptly forget and start thinking about themselves again
start living for yourself, or keep wasting time
BowTiedPhys@BowTiedPhys
No one is coming to save you as much as no one really cares what you're doing (or how badly you're doing it). You'll look back in disbelief at why you ever gave a shit in the first place. Do what you need to do, detach from the outcome, & future you will be grateful you've turned that corner when you did.
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Daniel retweetledi
Hello Julia, sans aucune ironie, c'est top que tu prennes le temps de te renseigner. Mais le problème quand on lit Marx aujourd'hui, c'est qu'on prend pour acquis sa prémisse de départ, alors qu'elle a été démontée scientifiquement il y a plus de 150 ans.
Toute la pensée de Marx repose sur la théorie de la valeur-travail. L'idée que la valeur d'un bien vient de la quantité de travail nécessaire pour le produire. Si tu acceptes cette prémisse, alors oui, tout son raisonnement tient. Le capitaliste "vole" la plus-value du travailleur, l'exploitation est mathématique, la révolution est inévitable.
Sauf qu'en 1871, trois économistes (Menger en Autriche, Jevons en Angleterre, Walras en Suisse) découvrent indépendamment la même chose : la valeur n'est pas objective, elle est subjective et marginale.
Un verre d'eau dans le désert vaut une fortune. Le même verre à côté d'une rivière ne vaut rien. Le travail incorporé est identique. Donc le travail ne détermine pas la valeur. C'est le consommateur qui valorise un bien selon son utilité marginale dans un contexte donné.
Exemple concret : tu peux passer 1000 heures à tricoter un pull moche que personne ne veut. Selon Marx, ce pull a énormément de valeur (beaucoup de travail incorporé). Selon la réalité, il ne vaut rien. Parce que personne n'en veut.
À l'inverse, Bernard Arnault crée des milliards de valeur non pas parce qu'il "exploite" mais parce qu'il a su anticiper et organiser des désirs humains à grande échelle. La valeur est créée par la coordination, pas extraite par le vol.
Cette découverte (la révolution marginaliste) a invalidé tout l'édifice marxiste. Pas pour des raisons idéologiques, pour des raisons scientifiques. C'est pour ça que plus aucun département d'économie sérieux au monde n'enseigne Marx comme un cadre d'analyse valide. On l'enseigne en histoire de la pensée.
Maintenant, le truc important. Si ton intention en lisant Marx c'est d'aider les pauvres (c'est une intention noble), alors tu vas être surprise par ce qui suit.
Regarde les chiffres de la Banque mondiale. En 1820, 90% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Cette chute historique ne s'est PAS produite dans les pays qui ont appliqué Marx. Elle s'est produite dans les pays qui ont libéralisé leur économie.
Chine post-1978, Vietnam post-1986, Inde post-1991, Pologne post-1989. À chaque fois qu'un pays libéralise, des centaines de millions de gens sortent de la pauvreté en une génération. À chaque fois qu'un pays applique Marx (URSS, Cambodge, Corée du Nord, Venezuela), c'est la famine et les goulags.
Ce n'est pas une opinion, c'est l'expérience la plus massive jamais menée en sciences sociales. Plusieurs milliards de cobayes humains, sur un siècle.
Donc paradoxalement, si tu aimes vraiment les pauvres, la position la plus cohérente n'est pas d'être marxiste. C'est d'être pour la liberté économique. Parce que c'est empiriquement la seule chose qui a jamais sorti massivement les gens de la misère.
Pour creuser, je te recommande trois lectures qui vont changer ta vision :
"La Loi" de Frédéric Bastiat (court, lumineux, gratuit en ligne)
"La Route de la Servitude" de Hayek
"Économie en une leçon" de Henry Hazlitt
Bonne lecture, et vraiment chapeau de chercher à comprendre plutôt que de rester dans tes certitudes. C'est rare.
Julia ひ@lifeimitatlife
Depuis tout à l'heure je me renseigne sur les idées de Karl Marx sincèrement je n'arrive pas à comprendre comment on peut être pour le capitalisme et même plus généralement être de droite
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Daniel retweetledi
I keep seeing the "9-5 is prison" takes on my tl. Here's an alternate take. Go read about people who lived during the 1300's. Absolutely horrible existence. Between bandits constantly raiding and murdering, no modern medicine, over half the population dying from the plague, constant war, it was a terrible and hopeless life.
If you are blessed enough to have a 9-5, drive home in your car, flip on the A/C, munch on Durito's while watching your favorite series after a hard day's work, you are beyond blessed and are living a life that exceeds 99% of anyone in history or alive today.
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Daniel retweetledi
if only you knew how easy life is when you’re delusional
Brandon Luu, MD@BrandonLuuMD
Literally just having a delusional golden retriever mindset measurably changes outcomes and physiology. Sleep badly? Convince yourself you're well rested. Stressful day? Convince yourself it's fuel. Failed? Convince yourself it's useful data.
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Daniel retweetledi
I can pretty confidently say that this works 100% of the time. If you convince yourself that you are going to be fine and that things will work out, they on average will because self-doubt just gets torn apart.
None of this stuff is real anyway, just convince yourself.
Brandon Luu, MD@BrandonLuuMD
Literally just having a delusional golden retriever mindset measurably changes outcomes and physiology. Sleep badly? Convince yourself you're well rested. Stressful day? Convince yourself it's fuel. Failed? Convince yourself it's useful data.
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Daniel retweetledi
Stop Caring. That’s literally all you have to do.
Brandon Luu, MD@BrandonLuuMD
Literally just having a delusional golden retriever mindset measurably changes outcomes and physiology. Sleep badly? Convince yourself you're well rested. Stressful day? Convince yourself it's fuel. Failed? Convince yourself it's useful data.
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Daniel retweetledi
Had a Jane Street interview in 2013 that still bothers me.
It was my 6th round. Final interview. The guy walks in carrying no laptop, no notebook, just a cold brew and what I later realized was a single IKEA tea candle.
He writes on the whiteboard:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $150
candles: $3,600
family: dying
Then he turns around and says, “Optimize.”
I laughed because I thought it was a culture-fit bit. He did not laugh.
So I said, “Well, obviously you spend less on candles.”
He says, “Assume candles are non-discretionary.”
Okay.
I start building a model. Basic constraint satisfaction. Family survival as a soft penalty. Candles as a state variable. Maybe there’s an arbitrage where you buy wholesale paraffin and convert the $3,600 line item into inventory.
He stops me.
“You’re thinking like a consultant.”
That’s when I knew I was in trouble.
He says, “Give me a bid-ask on family dying.”
I say, “What?”
He says, “You’re long candles, short family. Where do you make markets?”
I try to recover. I say the real issue is liquidity: rent and utilities are fixed, food is elastic, candles are emotionally inelastic. Therefore the optimal strategy is to securitize future candle enjoyment and borrow against it.
He nods for the first time.
Then he asks, “What time do you sell the candles?”
I say, “Whenever the market is liquid?”
He says, “Be more specific.”
I say, “Uh… 10 a.m. Eastern?”
For the first time, he smiles.
He goes, “Every day?”
I say, “Every day.”
He says, “In size?”
I say, “In size.”
He says, “And what do we call that?”
I say, “Market manipulation?”
The room gets very quiet.
He looks disappointed and writes something down.
“No. We call it providing liquidity to candle ETFs during the U.S. cash open.”
I try to save it. “Right. Of course. The family isn’t dying because we underfunded them. They’re just experiencing temporary price discovery.”
He nods again.
Then he points back at the board.
I had missed it. The utility bill was $150, but candles provide light. You can zero out utilities.
I update the budget:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $0
candles: $3,750
family: still dying, but now in a more capital-efficient way
He says, “How confident are you?”
I say, “0.95.”
He smiles and circles candles.
“0.95 huh?”
Then he asks me to estimate how many leveraged longs get liquidated if we dump $3,750 of candles at 10:00:01 every morning for 90 consecutive trading days.
Needless to say I did not get the offer.
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
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Daniel retweetledi
> be lazarus group
> hack kelp dao for $292m rsETH
> don't dump it, pawn it on aave, borrow $190m clean ETH against it
> $8b tvl flees aave in 48h, first real defi bank run
> arbitrum security council freezes $71m (the only money ever recovered)
> push the remaining $175m into thorchain, pay the protocol $494k in fees for the service
> convert to btc, shatter into utxo confetti across thousands of addresses
> bridge to tron, swap for USDT
> chinese OTC brokers aggregate the flows, settle via unionpay, outside SWIFT, outside sanctions
> cash lands in pyongyang, funds the missile program
> 7 days, 9 protocols, all 100% public on-chain, nobody stops any of it, defi btw
The Smart Ape 🔥@the_smart_ape
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Daniel retweetledi
Look guys, it's actually really straightforward, a bunch of people staked their ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield, except they didn't want their capital to be locked up, so they actually staked with a liquid staking protocol called Lido who provided them a liquid staking receipt token called stETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer, except they didn't want to lock up their capital, so they actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided them with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called Aave so that they could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero that was hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry
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Daniel retweetledi
"so you staked your ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield?"
"yes, Dave"
"except you didn't want your capital to be locked up so you actually staked it with a liquid staking protocol called Lido?"
"that's correct, Dave"
"and Lido gave you a liquid staking receipt token called stETH in return?"
"yes, Dave"
"and then you didn't think that was enough, so you juiced the yield even further by depositing your stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer?"
"you are correct, Dave"
"and now you didn't want to lock up your capital, so you actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided you with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH?"
"you got it, Dave"
"and then that was surely not enough juice, so you then deposited your rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called AAVE so that you could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero whose security is held together by a 1/1 toothpick, which was obviously hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry"
"you are 100% correct, dave"
jfc.
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Daniel retweetledi
> China exports 30% of the world's sulfuric acid
> Sulfuric acid is used in making fertilizers, refining metal and petroleum and lead battery manufacturing
> Expect inflation in food, fuel, fertilizers and chemicals across the globe
You are not ready for what's to come
BRICS News@BRICSinfo
JUST IN: 🇨🇳 China to halt sulfuric acid exports starting in May.
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Daniel retweetledi
Trump 2.0 so far
> launched and rugged his own memecoin
> launched and rugged his wives memecoin
> launched and rugged WLFI
> rugged on Epstein Files
> rugged on JFK Files
> rugged on economy promises
> rugged on NO WAR promises
> ruined ally relations
> ruined global economies through his tariff schtick
> committed severe war crimes for Netanyahu (and to save face from his pedo files)
> took a casino partnership while in office
> hard shilled a stock ticker while in office
2 more years of this madness left
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Daniel retweetledi
Dostoevsky is right, your worst sin is, in fact, destroying and betraying myself for nothing.
𝕯eon@chiplichipli2k
how it feels to be self-aware and still repeat self-destructive patterns
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Daniel retweetledi
America: threatens to invade Greenland, mocks European soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq, leaks intel to Putin, tarriffs Europe, starts an offensive illegal war in Iran and calls on NATO to clean up the mess
Europe: no
America: I can't believe you've done this
Harold__Finch@HaroldWren22
Most Europeans have no idea how absolutely furious with Europe America is. This is not just another disagreement. Betrayal is not something you just let slide. And the mouthy responses from Europeans are pouring gas on that fire. They have misjudged the situation gravely & it will have grave consequences for Europe— economically AND militarily.
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Daniel retweetledi
I pray you experience this at least once in your life.
le.hl@0xleegenz
Walking alone through a foreign city at night and realizing how far you’ve come has to be a top 3 peak moment of all time
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Daniel retweetledi
His music is eternal. Few artists are just too big to fail and Ye is one of them. My porn-addicted, adulterer, jew-hating, god complex having, fascist GOAT
Kurrco@Kurrco
Ye had 80,000 people singing "Heartless" with him at SoFi Stadium 🤯 "That's what 80,000 people sound like ladies and gentlemen... they said I'd never be back in the states. Two sold-out concerts."
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Daniel retweetledi
always remind yourself of this
Corporate Machiavelli@Mach_Tactics
If you play fair and lose, nobody will care that you played fair; you will be punished for losing.
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Daniel retweetledi
This is how most of the world works. Once people reach the top their main concern is staying on top and if that means selling out their country and tanking its economy then they will happily do it and rule over shit mountain.
It’s why the third world is the third world. It’s not simply low IQ but insane amounts of corruption.
Liz Churchill@liz_churchill10
Angela Merkel just ADMITTED on CAMERA she deliberately flooded Germany with third-world migrants to “stop the far right.” She chose to erase her own people rather than lose power. This wasn’t a mistake. It was demographic warfare. This is TREASON.
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Daniel retweetledi
defi is fucked lol
drift just got drained for $200M+ and here's how:
- attacker minted 750M fake tokens
- made a raydium pool with $500 liquidity, priced at ~$1/token
- compromised admin key listed the fake token on drift
- disabled all withdrawal guards in one tx
- deposited $785M of fake "collateral" and drained every vault in 31 txs over 12 minutes
- nobody noticed for an hour
- attacker came back 2hrs later to grab a few more million
the multisig was 2/5 with a 0-second timelock. $200M+ protected by two signatures and zero delay.
and people wonder why nobody takes this industry seriously
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