India's Bitcoin Man 🇮🇳

The divergence is the signal. WTI is pricing the headline — Trump says "final stages" with Iran. Diplomacy optimism. US domestic barrel reacts. Brent is pricing the physics — US strikes on Iranian missile sites and naval assets happened simultaneously. Seaborne crude through Hormuz is still at risk. Global physical market doesn't believe the headline. This is the market telling you two things at once: The politician's door and the trader's door are not the same door. WTI trades the tweet. Brent trades the strait. My honest guess: Watch Brent. That's the one that matters for 6 billion people outside the continental US.

Interesting divergence in the oil market this morning WTI futures -3.89% Brent futures +3.11% Thoughts on what's driving this??

Two more pieces in today's papers on the falling rupee. Both worth reading. Neither tells the complete story. @jayanjthomas explains the mechanics. @cpc01 and @Jayati1609 identify something more unsettling. Thomas gives you the textbook: current account deficit, oil imports exceeding exports, FPI outflows, RBI defending with reserves. Clean. Correct. Calm. Chandrashekhar and Ghosh give you the room underneath the floor. India's balance of payments was largely stable in 2025. Net flows were not dramatically negative. And yet the rupee kept falling. Their answer: the RBI deregulated onshore rupee trading. Banks and forex brokers started positioning for further decline. The bets themselves accelerated the fall. Self-fulfilling gravity — built inside the system the RBI created. On May 21 alone the RBI sold $2 billion in a single day. In all of FY26 it has sold more dollars defending the rupee than in the entire previous financial year. This is not a current account story anymore. It is a speculative feedback loop the RBI is now struggling to re-regulate. And here is what the two pieces together don't say out loud — but the data implies. The RBI now faces a choice that has no good answer. Door 1: Hike rates. Defend the rupee. Take the growth hit. Tell the truth about inflation. Politically painful. Economically honest. Door 2: Let the rupee slide quietly. Protect growth optics. Let the currency absorb the shock so the official numbers look cleaner. Politically easier. Economically dangerous. History and political incentives point to Door 2. Or Door 1 chosen so late it no longer matters. Here is why that choice destroys ordinary Indians specifically. India buys nearly every barrel of oil in dollars. A sliding rupee doesn't wait for a government decision — it inflates the landed cost of crude immediately and automatically. Every rupee the currency loses is a petrol price hike, a freight cost hike, a food price hike arriving simultaneously — before the government adjusts a single policy lever. And the Hormuz CPI transmission hasn't even hit yet. ₹96 today is the pre-shock, pre-speculation-unwind, pre-reckoning number. The RBI's real test hasn't started yet. If you think the worst of India's oil shock is already priced in — this paper will change your mind. indiabitcoinman.com/paper15

TN Ninan's piece today is worth reading carefully. He is right about the destination. But dangerously wrong about the timing. His argument: renewable energy can make India resilient to oil price shocks. Solar and wind are now cost-competitive. Import dependence can be reduced. The trade deficit shrinks. The rupee stabilises. India becomes a hydrocarbon-proof economy. All of this is correct. In 2030. But we are in May 2026. And the shock has already happened. Here is what the piece does not address — The Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down earlier this year. At peak closure, throughput collapsed to roughly 2-16 ships per day against a normal flow of 100. India imports approximately 85% of its oil. A significant portion of that moves through Hormuz. The US-Iran preliminary agreement Ninan references is real. But preliminary agreements have collapsed before.The deal that was always coming, hasn't really arrived yet, has it? And more importantly — even if the Strait fully reopens tomorrow, the shipping lags take 120 days to resolve. The CPI transmission from the existing shock has not yet hit Indian consumers. This is the lag that most commentary is missing. Oil price shocks do not hit kitchen tables immediately. They travel through a chain — crude to refinery, refinery to wholesale fuel, fuel to freight, freight to food and manufactured goods. That chain takes 90-120 days to fully transmit. The Hormuz disruption happened. The transmission is still travelling. August–September 2026 is when ordinary Indians feel it — in fully transmitted petrol/diesel prices, in freight costs, in vegetable prices, in the EMI that suddenly feels tighter than last month. The renewables story Ninan tells is India's necessary future. But it does not protect the Indian household this summer. The 10-year solution and the 6-month problem are not the same conversation. For the complete forensic analysis of how this transmits through the Indian economy — the fuel price mechanics, the CPI trajectory, the RBI's impossible position, and what comes next: indiabitcoinman.com/paper15

I'm long oil at $95. With my own money. I said $95. I meant $95. You're long on opinions. With someone else's attention. The only thing more predictable than my position is cowards who mock it without having one of their own. Hypocrisy is the one thing I will come after. Every single time. Without exception. Come back when you've bled for a thesis. Then we'll talk. Funny how the loudest voices always have the emptiest portfolios. I own it. You mock it. One of us has skin in the game. We are not the same.

@IndiaBitcoinMan says he owns $OIL at $95 lol!!!!!! When confronted he will say he was actually SHORT ! Lmao!

Full case file: x.com/IndiaBitcoinMa…

The Chief Justice called them cockroaches. The Finance Ministry doubled their gold tax. The Petroleum Ministry rationed their cooking gas. Same question every time: who pays? Same answer every time. @prvkhvr @TheDeshbhakt

@dotkrueger Thank you 😊 🥰 to whoever put me on Kalshi

@RealDollarValue @GlobalMktObserv Yes but the increases the cost of borrowing for the US (which they will finally monetize by printing into the oil spike) leading to yet another inflation/purchasing power destruction cycle for the average American.

@GlobalMktObserv 10 oil-importing EMs dumped $86B in USTs in March — the month Hormuz closed. They didn’t abandon the dollar. They burned dollar assets to buy dollars to pay for oil. That’s not de-dollarization. That’s the milkshake at scale.

‼️Oil-importing economies are dumping US Treasuries at the fastest pace in over a decade: US Treasury holdings across 10 oil-importing emerging markets fell by -$86 billion in March, the largest monthly decline since 2011. Of that, -$56 billion represented outright net sales, with the remaining -$30 billion attributable to valuation losses as US bond prices fell sharply during the month. China led the outflows, accounting for the bulk of the -$56 billion in net sales. Excluding China, the remaining oil-importing emerging markets still recorded -$22 billion in net sales, a record for the dataset. The pattern is consistent with historical behaviour, as emerging markets have repeatedly reduced their US Treasury stockpiles during periods of elevated market stress. The global selloff in US government debt is far broader than Turkey alone.

The crackdown confirms the threat is real. What's underneath the CJP anger is an economy in quiet distress — Gold loans +50% YoY. Fridges on EMI. Small business owners borrowing to survive, not expand. The system isn't just failing the youth. It's actively extracting from them while calling them parasites. @abhijeetdipke has built the movement. Here's the economic case behind it 👇x.com/IndiaBitcoinMa…

1. Instagram Page Hacked💪🏽 2. Twitter Account Withheld💪🏽 3. Back up account Taken Down💪🏽 4. #CockroachJantaParty Removed From Trends💪🏽 // CPJ wants resignation of @dpradhanbjp - BB wants termination of #cockroaches 🪳🪳🪳🪳

.@Akshat_World Respectfully — this needs a few corrections. 1/ "Inflation causes asset prices to go up" — No. This is backwards. Inflation caused the Fed to raise rates in 2022. Higher rates = lower stock valuations. S&P fell 20% while inflation was at 9%. Correlation ≠ causation, and even the correlation doesn't hold. 2/ Yes, inflation erodes the real value of debt. But — and this is the part everyone skips — the US is currently borrowing new money at 4-5% interest. Inflation is running at ~4%. You're paying roughly what you're inflating away. The trade is breakeven at best, and the debt pile keeps growing regardless. 3/ "Expand social security to protect the bottom quartile from inflation" = spend more borrowed money to offset the cost of spending too much borrowed money. That's not a solution. That's the problem wearing a hat. 4/ The 60% stock ownership stat is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your tweet. The top 10% own ~93% of all stocks. The bottom 60% own scraps. When you inflate asset prices, you widen inequality — you don't solve it. 5/ "Export inflation" — the dollar exporting inflation requires dollar *weakness*. A strong dollar exports deflation. We've had both regimes in the last 4 years. They're not the same thing. 6/ Here's what's actually keeping stocks elevated — and it isn't inflation. It's fiscal dominance. The US ran a $1.8T deficit in FY2024. That's $1.8T of government money injected directly into the economy every year regardless of what the Fed does with rates. The Fed tightens. The Treasury spends. They partially cancel each other out. Stocks stay elevated not because of inflation — but because deficit spending is the new QE, replacing the liquidity the Fed withdrew. Asset price inflation and CPI inflation are both symptoms of monetary/fiscal expansion — but through completely different pipes. Conflating them is the root error in your thread. The honest summary: the US cannot inflate its way out cleanly. It can make the debt number smaller in real terms while making everything more expensive for everyone who doesn't own assets — which is most of humanity, including most of India.

@abhijeet_dipke Keep promoting the real issues here on X. You're doing great Abhijeet 👏 x.com/i/status/20578…

Crackdown on Cockroach Janta Party. - Instagram page hacked. - My personal Instagram hacked. - Twitter account withheld - Back up account also taken down.

@DrProfitCrypto Honest take: you think this happens after June 12 (SpaceX IPO) or before?

The Global world wide crash is loading My shorts on everything are ready You had time to prepare Time ticking

@FoxNews Love as a disease paradox. Trump Has No Escape Plan | Paper 6 | IndiaBitcoinMan share.google/XV4rcE3jexDI1b…

BREAKING: President Trump announces he will NOT attend his son Don Jr.'s wedding, saying government matters and his "love for the United States of America" are too important for him to leave the White House during this "important period of time." "While I very much wanted to be with my son, Don Jr., and the newest member of the Trump Family, his soon to be wife, Bettina, circumstances pertaining to Government, and my love for the United States of America, do not allow me to do so."

Anyone who knows the official CJP account on X, help me bridge this message to them. Or tag them on Insta as I don't have a presence there 🙏 @abhijeetdipke @dhruv_rathee @kushal_mehra

Hey, Cockroach Janta Party The Chief Justice called you parasites for being unemployed. Here's the data on who's actually under stress. The entrepreneurial backbone of India is borrowing to survive, not expand. Households are financing fridges on EMI. Gold — the last family buffer — is being pledged at a record pace. This is the economy behind the rhetoric. And it gets harder before it gets better. The oil shock CPI transmission hasn't fully hit yet. August–September 2026 is when ordinary Indians feel it in their kitchens.

India retail credit data. March 2026. Gold loans: +50.4% YoY — ₹18.6 trillion portfolio. Credit cards: 0% growth. Consumer durable loans: +20.8%. The fridge is now on EMI. Sole-proprietor loans: +19.7%. The small business owner is not expanding. He is surviving. Home loans: +9.4%. Read that again. The segment growing fastest requires you to pledge a physical asset to get cash. A few years ago Indians borrowed against future income growth — salary, business, optimism. Today many are borrowing to maintain liquidity. Same month. Same bills. Less income buffer. The psychology has flipped. From aspirational debt to maintenance debt. That is a very different economy than the one being celebrated. The pain didn't disappear. It was refinanced. The price shock is Paper 15. The balance sheet shock is Paper 4. They're converging. indiabitcoinman.com/paper15 indiabitcoinman.com/paper4

Good hopium, Deepak. And with technicalities to bid your case. However we are in an unparalleled time in history. And history has a certain ironic way of choosing it's elements with the most cruelty to bring about the change, that's desperately needed. You see it the closure of Hormuz, you see it in the Cockroach Janta Party @Cockroach4India. But the change I am talking about is the $ is dying as reserve currency and ironically history has chosen Trump as the main protagonist to oversee it. Trump Has No Escape Plan | Paper 6 | IndiaBitcoinMan share.google/CMFpiilnf2XMlI… Everything flows downstream from there. The change India deserves rather than what it's getting. India's Tightrope | Paper 4 | IndiaBitcoinMan share.google/EeaFOlP4JWTdBb… The Architecture of the Brave New World that's coming on the other side is a piece I am currently writing. I could have replied to any other tweet (not specifically yours) with this content, but I chose you, because your name is Deepak (THE LIGHT THAT'S SHINING HARD) Cheers, have a great day

While it makes sense for the US, Iran and Russia to keep oil prices high, it makes no sense to have inflation ruin most others and in fact hurt the US. I believe we will see lower prices on crude, and a return to availability soon. It makes sense for a longer term policy response... Like to change fpi taxation, to introduce duties on end use goods, to push local manufacturing, refining of materials etc, and to explore local crude oil resources. But it doesn't make sense to unnecessarily hike rates. The govt has done an amazing job managing shortages but it's time to build the next India. Semiconductors, machinery, cold storage, and so on. Rbis work with the rupee right now is actually good, and remember that if it buys dollars on the way in, it must sell them on the way out. It's not selling enough, and doesn't have the insti linkages that say boj or boe has, but in general the response has been decent. We still run a surplus on liquidity. They should top this up with a distribution of their own profits properly, regardless of what our govt needs. I would stay prepared for short term pain but it does look like peak pessimism on India. I just don't think a country of smart hungry people will just wiffle away all the economic growth because some uncles decide there's nothing here. We grow because we are ambitious, sometimes despite our govt and the bureaucracy, and the next decade is going to be good here. Two years ago it was just india and no one else. Today's everyone else but India. Both will prove to be wrong.

I could be wrong in my timing for sure Fred, just as you. But I strongly feel this systemic collapse is a 2026-2033 story. I cannot comprehend the system can take $50T in debt and still pretend as if everything's normal. I think $40T becomes the event horizon after which a permanent downfall (singularity) is undebatable. 2026 will be cited in history books as the event horizon IMO, not 2030. Let's wait and see how this plays out. And yes of course, $ will be the last "geographically located" reserve currency. Bitcoin takes over as settlement of account between central banks (those who survive) by 2035 and a unit of account/reserve currency by 2045

You've spent decades inside this system. I've spent the last year mapping it from the outside — for Indians who don't read policy briefs but need to understand what's coming. I think our perspectives belong in the same room. My DMs are open.

Governance fragility + external oil shock + an RBI with no good door left to open. India's household savings are the buffer. But the buffer is thinning. The window for reform isn't years away. It may be months.

.@surjitbhalla — honoured by the follow. Your piece crystallised something I've been building toward for months — the gap between political peak and economic floor is widening, and most Indians don't yet feel it. The die-hard optimists losing hope is the signal, not the noise