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Banking fundamentals led every major crisis of the last 20 years. The data was always there — months before markets moved. Most people weren’t watching it.
We are. 🧵
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World Dollar Value
455 posts
World Dollar Value
@RealDollarValue
Real dollar value across 190 currencies + Canary banking stress signals across 25 countries. Free calc: https://t.co/HeRzSdd5z1
Katılım Mayıs 2026
82 Takip Edilen57 Takipçiler
@yieldsearcher 27 countries don’t run to the World Bank for dollar access when the dollar is dying. They run when the milkshake is pulling harder than they can defend. Different patient, same drain.
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@Polymarket 27 countries seeking emergency dollar access. Not a dollar crisis — a crisis for everyone who needs dollars. The machine locks both exits and 27 countries just confirmed which exit they’re stuck at.
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JUST IN: World Bank document reveals 27 countries seeking “rapid” access to crisis funds since the start of the Iran conflict.
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@Hedgeye The cliff starts February 28. Russia selling gold to cover budget deficits from declining energy revenues while Ukraine burns the refineries. The 99% ruble/yuan settlement doesn’t cover what gold has to.
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@SantiagoAuFund Correct. They just happened to need dollars so badly during a “dollar death” that they liquidated $14B in safe assets to get them. Looking forward to the report.
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Just finished an 80 page report that explains (again) in detail (again) why all the USD fatalists are wrong (still).
GIF
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@tmaxftw @SantiagoAuFund We asked one of them why Turkey sold $14B in gold AND USTs at the same time if the dollar was dying. Still waiting. The lira was celebrating I’m sure.
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@SantiagoAuFund MacroTwitter has informed me that when Turkey dumps all their US treasuries, it’s because the dollar has died, not because they need dollars.
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@FirstSquawk He’s probably right on the direction, wrong on the mechanism. Demand destruction from the energy shock produces disinflation. Curves are already flattening. Rates come down not because Trump asked — because the energy architecture is doing the work.
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TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO GET INTEREST RATES DOWN QUICKLY
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@MarioNawfal UAE exited OPEC, took USD swap line. QatarEnergy force majeure — 12.8 mtpa offline 3-5 years, US LNG fills the gap. Panama ports moving to BlackRock. Cuba blockaded. The board wasn’t damaged. It was reorganized.
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@MarioNawfal Generational win for Iran, China, Russia? In 82 days: Venezuela flipped, Exxon returns with 6 oil fields. 20yr LNG contracts signed across Europe and Asia. Malacca defense deal. Gibraltar defense roadmap. OPEC+ at lowest exports since 2016.
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2 POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:
1. Iran accepts Trump's off-ramp. He's already made SIGNIFICANT concessions to be able to walk away
2. Iran rejects it, Trump bombs them one last time to be able to declare 'victory', and leaves the rest of the world to clean up the mess
Both options are terrible for the U.S. and their allies, but #2 is disastrous for Israel and the Gulf
This war has been a generational win for Iran, China, and Russia, and one of the most damaging wars for U.S. hegemony in decades.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
UPDATE: I NO LONGER STAND WITH THIS STATEMENT I know I've been saying the war is over since Trump made the threats to 'wipe out Iran's civilization', and doubled down since as it became obvious Trump wanted to walk away But things have changed. The Iranian demands have gone from reasonable, to almost impossible for Trump to accept If the latest reports from Iran are true, Iran wants to: - Not concede on their ballistic missile program and proxy network (fair, expected) - Control the Strait of Hormuz and charge a fee, as well as ban some countries (maximalist, but workable) - According to Bloomberg: Reparations (This is impossible for Trump to accept) - Unfreezing of assets and lifting of sanctions BEFORE any negotiations on nuclear program (That's according to Iran's Fars. If true, that would be a deal breaker, as logically the lifting of sanctions was always a concession linked to the nuclear program, similar to the JCPOA) If the above reports are true, then the likelihood of war is even higher than 50%. However it's impossible to know what Iran's actual stance is, and which "conditions" are throw away terms. Either way, things are not looking good at all.
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@PolarityRadio @MarioNawfal The misread isn’t propaganda — it’s not understanding how the dollar works. While the war ran: 20yr LNG contracts signed, Venezuela flipped, Malacca and Gibraltar locked, OPEC+ marginalized. The infrastructure built in 82 days tells the story.
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@MarioNawfal I must say you need to incorporate market dynamics more in your analysis because America won so hard you can’t even add it up and you’re looking at it the wrong way. The oil market is no longer controlled by OPEC and that’s a 50 year organization and that’s terrible for Iran.
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@KobeissiLetter Russia used to be the world’s largest official gold buyer. Now selling to cover budget deficits from declining energy revenues while Ukraine burns the refineries. Went to Beijing for PoS-2, came back without a price. The clock runs one direction.
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Russia is selling its gold reserves at a rapid pace:
The Bank of Russia's gold holdings dropped -900,000 ounces in the first 4 months of 2026, to 73.9 million ounces, the lowest since February 2022.
Gold prices averaged ~$4,800 per ounce over the same period.
Therefore, if Russia sold gold at the market price, the sales are estimated to have generated ~$4.3 billion in proceeds.
Russia's central bank began reducing its gold reserves last year after the Finance Ministry liquidated gold and foreign currency assets from the National Wellbeing Fund to offset budget deficits driven by declining energy revenues.
Before the pandemic, the Bank of Russia used to be one of the world’s largest official gold buyers, taking in nearly all domestically mined output until it halted purchases in early 2020.
Russia is increasingly selling gold to raise cash.
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@Alpha_Ex_LLC Criticizing both reads without giving the right one is the actual data crime. In a milkshake environment, low US downside protection isn’t complacency — capital is flowing into the US sphere. The skew reflects the destination, not the risk.
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this is the bad part of twitter... accounts with lots of followers but no knowledge of what they are posting
two different accounts, same chart, two completely wrong read throughs. both "data crimes".
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@business Q1 contracted deeper than expected, rebound “more moderate.” Banxico can’t cut — peso under pressure. Can’t hike — economy contracting. One notch above junk. The two-door problem on the US border.
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Mexico’s central bank expressed concern over the weakness of the economy, arguing it contracted in the first quarter at a pace deeper than it expected while warning that a rebound will likely be more moderate. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@business Bolivia — -3.3% GDP, reserves near zero, debt at 93%. Food, fuel, medicine shortages. Hospitals warning about oxygen. This is what sovereign default looks like before the IMF arrives. The trajectory had no visible off-ramp months ago. It still doesn’t.
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More than three weeks of protests in Bolivia are testing President Rodrigo Paz’s government. Food, fuel and medicine shortages are worsening as industries halt operations, hospitals warn about oxygen supply risks bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@NGurushina The canary rang in February — Bancolombia 94% profit collapse, S&P to BB-. Now Polymarket has the market-friendly candidate at 56%. Regulator data led this by months. Colombia calibrating to the reorganized hemisphere.
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TGIF – “Brazilification” of Colombia’s central bank and “Milei-zation” of Colombia’s presidential election outcome? Betting markets on Colombia’s elections are far from perfect, but Abelardo’s move is noteworthy - particularly with some polls now un-banned. Have a great w/end!
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@yieldsearcher Countries build strategic mineral reserves when they’re worried about supply being cut off. China watching the hemisphere consolidate around US-aligned supply. The reserve buildout confirms the squeeze is visible from Beijing.
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You either sell your dollar assets to defend your FX/buy oil, or you hike and pray it does not destroy your economy (it prob will).
The xccy basis is flush with USD due to collapse in oil flow/FX hedging demand, but the need for USD is today, not months out into the future.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Asia FX Reserves May Drop $670b If Dollar Stays Strong: Barclays
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@business Mexico is one notch above junk, dollar debt maturing, peso under pressure. Pass whatever election law you want — the rating agency isn’t a foreign government. The credit downgrade doesn’t need an invitation. The geography already decided this.
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Mexico’s ruling party is proposing a reform to annul future elections if there’s interference by foreign individuals, organizations or governments seeking to influence the results bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@PolarityRadio @MarioNawfal Genuine question — the Malcolm Nance framing that Trump “needs a win” and Hormuz hurt the dollar. TDS or misunderstanding dollar infrastructure? Curves flattening, GDP toward 5%, DXY up.
Starting to wonder if they understand what’s really going on.
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@MarioNawfal Malcom hates Trump with a fury of a spurned lover.
The main US yield curves are flattening rapidly and mortgage rate are far behind.
These flattening curve will move up US GDP toward 5% GDP.
Trump gets more GDP as the Hormuz stays closed
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped his demand for total uranium surrender, and that tells you everything about how badly he needs a win.
Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says the Gulf states are driving this deal, not Washington.
"Trump desperately needs this single piece of paper calling an end to the war, opening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the blockade. And he can walk away and call this a victory, and the rest will be lost to negotiations."
The details get buried. The headline is all he wants.
@MalcolmNance
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A deal dressed up as a victory is still a surrender, and everyone in the room knows it. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says the people who make real money finally sat Trump down and forced his hand. "This thing stinks of desperation." Iran rebuilds its drone force in garages while Trump counts bomb craters and calls it winning. @MalcolmNance
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@_10delta_ Right on the tactic. But yuan suppression is double-edged — export subsidy today, accelerated reserve depletion tomorrow. Every fix weaker than estimate pushes more capital toward the dollar. The tactical counter funds the structural problem.
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We’ve got a trend forming.
PBOC suppressing appreciation.
Subsidy to Chinese exports & a direct headwind to trade rebalancing & US reindustrialization efforts.
Don’t think it’s a coincidence that, 48 hours after Trump leaving Beijing, the fixes start running materially weaker than estimate.
China is feeling the pain from the energy crisis &, simultaneously, using it as political cover to press the US when it is stuck in the “economic proxy war” in Iran.
The ccy weakness is China’s tactical counter to the Iran situation (& its more structural internal economic issues)..
10Δ@_10delta_
So it begins..
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@FirstSquawk Every central bank reframes currency weakness as an exporter gift when they’re losing the defense battle. Philippines confirmed Taiwan involvement this week — they’ve picked a side. The peso weakness is the milkshake, not an export strategy.
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The Philippines’ central bank chief noted that a weaker peso aids exporters, who are facing challenges from the current account deficit.
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@leshka_eth You answered your own question. Dollar pressure so extreme Turkey liquidated safe assets to get dollars. That’s not the dollar failing — that’s the milkshake. You sell your safest dollar asset when you desperately need dollars. It proves the demand.
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🚨🇹🇷 TURKEY JUST SOLD 99% OF ITS U.S. TREASURIES
Holdings fell from $15.7B in February to $1.8B in March
89% of the position disappeared
U.S. Treasuries are supposed to be the safest place for central banks to keep reserves
Turkey has a weak currency and still dumped almost the whole stack
So ask yourself one thing
How bad does the dollar pressure have to be for safe assets to get sold this fast?
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