Invest with Felix

Opendoor 2.0: The Singularity Scaler Nobody Is Pricing In A road to a $1000 per share. $OPEN is sitting at $4.42. EBITDA profitable ahead of schedule. 5,000+ acquisition contracts in Q1 — best since 2022. LTM free cash flow: +$519M. Was -$6.3B in 2021. The market is still pricing it as a broken iBuyer. It's becoming a housing OS. Full breakdown 🧵

@TimurNegru Whats typically required on downpayment for a house like this in Spain?

It even has a small garden+bbq area

This one looks unreal. 7 rooms, 1h15m to Barcelona airport, a huge terrace and these views. Price: €480k ($547k) Location: L'Hospitalet de l'Infant, Tarragona Seems like a bargain!

@TrendSpider Wonder how this unfolds with the new $IBM earnings scare over weakness in software and infrastructure markets

Popular Retail Stocks, July Performance: What stands out?

@LiebermanAustin I’d argue sentiment was through the roof as well.

$RKLB at $76 as I said would likely happen People underestimate how common it is for great businesses to get overvalued and be bad stocks. Never get married to an investment. There is such a thing as too high of a price for any stock. That’s why fundamentals always matter.

@TrendSpider Opendoor is one of the best ran companies out there since Kaz joined as CEO.

Options traders have their bets placed... 👀 $OPEN

@skyflightmedia @GMN_watch 💯

@GMN_watch I mean we're sitting on 26k folks over at r/opendoor, and we're all big fans of what Kaz is cooking.

$OPEN has the strongest retail investor base than any other company under $50B.

Abcellera is starting to look like something here… 140% in 2 months. The Jazz Pharmaceuticals partnership is showing off…. $ABCL

$BNGO is arguably one of the most hated biotechs around. Fair they did shareholders dirty and diluted them 98% from heights. Now something changed in 2026 which may be the start of reversal. Bionano may become the GPU for genomics data. Foundational models building on this data from companies further down the chain need reliable input. Bionano is best in class, but it’s on the brink of collapse. With new reimbursement coming in, and retired debt, is the hockey stick shaping? Writing a 100,000 words deepdive.

@investingluc I agree. Former founder and now intrapreneur here

Hack to becoming a sick trader/investor is to be an entrepreneur first (or simultaneously). Nobody talks ab it because everyone wants to be a full time trader... But biz guys crush it in markets because they: - have money coming in (pressure's off) - develop great business acumen (v underrated) - aren't watching the screen 99% of the day - understand market shifts - good grasp on psychology of money - better at building conviction + letting position work Reason why all of the big founders go from building a biz to investing... > @peterthiel (paypal) -> founder's fund > @jtlonsdale (palantir) -> 8VC > @pmarca (netscape) -> a16z Fintwit too. I know a few of the biggest finance accounts on here have solid businesses...both finance/trading-adjacent and completely unrelated. I'm not telling you what to do. But the truth is: it's def hard to beat the market, but it's WAY harder to beat the market when your portfolio = your paycheck. Biz = something to grind on, cashflow, speed up compounding process, teach you, + support you early on Markets = a multiplier, the "leverage"...will compound wealth exponentially, let market work their magic in background, + you can fluctuate with how active/passive you want to be Different skillsets but they feed into each other imo, and both together can be a huge unlock if you're a struggling trader. Hope this helps someone

@ssj2abid Solid work @ssj2abid

$OPEN Q2 earnings are coming as the quarter closes. Here is what I think happens, and why I keep accumulating. The model runs on a lag, and this is the part people get wrong. A signed contract is not a purchase. When a seller signs, the home closes roughly 4 to 8 weeks later, and only then does Opendoor own it. So the homes bought in any quarter come from contracts signed mostly in the quarter before. Buying today is revenue tomorrow. The cleanest way to see the momentum is the homes actually bought, straight from the filings, fully owned, no estimating. → Q3 2025 bought 1,169 homes → Q4 2025 bought 1,706 homes → Q1 2026 bought 2,474 homes That is the purchase pace doubling in two quarters. And the forward pipeline behind it is even stronger, weekly signed contracts have been running 520 to 560 a week, well above the pace that fed Q1. Those signings become the next two quarters of closings. The funnel is filling. Now here is where the business sat last quarter. → Q1 2026 revenue $720M → Q1 2026 homes sold 1,921 → Q1 2026 homes bought 2,474 → Q1 2026 inventory 3,420 → Q1 2026 contribution margin 4.4% → Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA −$31M That was the turn. After a year of deliberately selling down a bloated 7,080 home inventory, they flipped to buying more than selling, restocked with fresh well priced homes, and margin snapped from a 1% trough back to 4.4%. Revenue stayed low only because those freshly bought homes had not been sold yet. Now they sell. Here is my Q2 picture at last quarter's ~$375K average sale price. → Q2 2026 homes bought ~3,800, up 54% → Q2 2026 inventory ~4,500, up from 3,420 → Q2 2026 contribution margin ~5 to 6%, up from 4.4% Revenue and EBITDA then depend on how many of those homes sell, so here is the range, and my estimate sits inside it. → 2,400 sold = ~$900M revenue, up 25%, EBITDA around −$12M → 2,650 sold = ~$994M revenue, up 38%, EBITDA around −$7M → 2,900 sold = ~$1.09B revenue, up 51%, EBITDA around breakeven Across the whole range Opendoor hits or beats guidance of roughly 25% revenue growth, a 6% margin, and EBITDA around breakeven. The low end matches it, the upper end clears it. Every line moving up together is the point. Revenue rebounding is almost mechanical now because the inventory is already bought. The number I watch is contribution margin holding as volume scales, because that is what proves the velocity model works rather than just more homes changing hands. The one thing keeping EBITDA off breakeven is ad spend, which they doubled to feed the acquisition engine. That is a choice, not a problem. Every dollar buys the homes that become next quarter's revenue, so a slightly negative print just means they kept their foot down, which I want. And this is where the agent integration gets interesting. As more homes come in and sell through agents, Opendoor leans less on its own marketing, which pulls opex down over time. It pays a commission per deal, so a little less is earned per home, but at scale the lower marketing spend more than makes up for it. Cheaper to acquire, slightly thinner per home, far more volume. Q2 is the warmup. If the pace holds, Q3 is where it gets serious. → Q3 2026 revenue ~$1.2B → Q3 2026 homes sold ~3,200 → Q3 2026 homes bought ~4,200 → Q3 2026 inventory ~5,800 → Q3 2026 contribution margin ~6.5% → Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA firmly positive, north of $20M So the EBITDA path reads −$31M, then roughly breakeven, then clearly positive. That is the quarter the story stops being a projection and becomes a profitable company growing again. Every metric that matters is grinding up and to the right. Give it time and the numbers get bigger and more people start taking this seriously. Until then I keep accumulating at depressed prices. I could be completely wrong on the homes sold numbers and that changes everything completely. Regardless, the thesis has only strengthened since Kaz arrived. Patience and conviction. nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

@CraigBrockie Isn’t this already dropping at 25? I’m 31 now and started taking MSM+ collagen every other day (my non-iron day)

12. Collagen Peptides After 40, your body produces less collagen/year. I add this to my morning coffee for joint health, faster recovery, & skin elasticity (affiliate link). The key is consistency. Benefits compound over time. lvnta.com/lv_PC8k8cuhJJN…

I've tested hundreds of supplements over 30 years to heal myself. Most are worthless, but these 15 transformed my health. At 50, my bloodwork is better than when I was 20. The evidence-based supplement list that actually works: 🧵

@moninvestor Can you imagine the brand exposure? Not only execs in SF but retail? Millions of jerseys will sell with this logo on it. How many will develop a curiosity for $IREN?

$IREN - signed a multi-year jersey patch deal with the Golden State Warriors. It's worth more than $50m per year and is the richest sponsorship deal in the history of North American team sports. To put things into perspective, that is roughly 1% of IREN's targeted year-end revenue run-rate.

@theEuropoor It’s a feasible solution and relatively cheap. Concrete traps most heat in cities so this will help significantly to reduce temperatures as cities are micro climates. Noticed it already in Granada, Spain, where the municipality implemented it already ahead of this EU approval.

🇪🇺🚨BREAKING🇪🇺🚨 after careful consideration, the EU has approved the European Shade Corridor Programme, a €463.8 billion infrastructure initiative designed to reduce urban heat exposure while supporting the bloc’s long-term climate objectives. construction will begin in Barcelona, Rome and Paris before expanding across the rest of the European Union over the coming decades.

@maelan_sdmr Sounds like a Black Friday deal

$OPEN is currently trading at a 2030 forward PE ratio of 1 or 2. Funny. Opendoor's total value today corresponds to the profits it will generate in 4 years. Let that sink in.

@ssj2abid I love these breakdowns

Ah, another one of these... Let's go through it. Someone's shocked at this $OPEN service fee, asking "who would sell to them?" Fair question. Let's break it down, both routes. $634,000 home: OPENDOOR ROUTE → Sale price: $634,000 → Service fee: -$60,554 (9.6%) → Repairs/prep: -$8,323 → Closing costs: -$5,051 → Net to seller: $560,070 (keeps 88.3%) TRADITIONAL AGENT ROUTE → Sale price: $634,000 (IF it sells) → Commission ~5.5%: -$34,870 → Closing ~1.5%: -$9,510 → Repairs (negotiated): -$8,323 → Net to seller: ~$581,300 (keeps 91.7%) Gap is ~$21,000 on paper. Not the "double" being claimed, that compares the full Opendoor fee to ONLY the agent commission, ignoring closing, repairs, and the months you wait. And to be clear, I'm happy to rework these numbers if the agent side is actually cheaper. But someone needs to show me real proof you can come in under the agent route I've laid out. I think I'm being more than fair to the agent comparison here. I need to extremely vocal on this part specifically. The agent route isn't free or instant. → ~$3,650/month to keep the home while it sits (mortgage, tax, insurance) → 3 months = ~$11,000, the real gap drops to ~$10k → 6 months = ~$22,000, the gap is GONE → and that's before a single fall-through or price cut So who sells to Opendoor? → anyone who needs certainty over squeezing the last dollar → anyone juggling two mortgages who can't afford to wait → anyone who values cash in 14 days, no showings, no strangers, no risk it falls apart → anyone who's tried the agent route already and watched it sit unsold → anyone relocating for a job or dealing with unfortunate circumstances such as a divorce The list goes on.. The agent finds a buyer and you, the seller, carry the risk. Opendoor BECOMES the buyer and eats it. That's what the fee buys. At 9.6% here, once you count the cost of waiting, it's one of the closest gaps I've seen. For a seller who needs speed, this is an easy yes. Still early days under Kaz, the model keeps getting sharper. But the answer to "who would sell to them" is simple: More people than you'd think. Patience and conviction. nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

@BitcoinAIGuy @warriors They are quick to update haha

Look what I just bought @warriors x $IREN 😜 I didn’t have much cash on me so I had to stop by the ATM… ok I’ll stop 😂😂😂

@ssj2abid @BitcoinAIGuy @warriors

@BitcoinAIGuy @warriors chaddddd

Looking for a critical support line is the first basis to define the right entry. Fundamentals build conviction, technicals focus on the entry. Exits are primarily driven by technicals. Phase 1: Negative divergence on RSI is a first indicator, usually followed by breakdown of key support levels like the SMA. A break down of Fibonacci retracement is phase 2 (no strong reclaim above 0.618) A catalyst is usually what follows. See the examples of $MSTR and #oil below: higher on less market strength, then the sudden drop on a catalyst. Learn how to read technicals makes you a better investor. Wrong entry ≠ great trade even if thesis is sound because the risk reward is not great. I always look for an R:R of minimum 1:3 for shares and 1:5 for options.

@AstraInsights @KobeissiLetter Interesting chart

@KobeissiLetter PCE is out. Here’s how $SPY has moved following prior PCE releases: x.com/AstraInsights/…

BREAKING: US May PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, rises to 4.1%, the highest reading since April 2023. Core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest since October 2023. US inflation is now officially running at more than double the Fed's 2.0% target.

Which way is the wind blowing? ⛳️ $OPEN