Invictus

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Invictus

Invictus

@Invictus23626

Backing ideas, building brands, reading signals. Investor in tides, not ripples. Northwestern alum. Quiet operator in noisy markets. 1.95m.

Terra Katılım Mayıs 2008
1.2K Takip Edilen998 Takipçiler
Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
I am bemused and horrified but I think Dar may end up leading this country.
farrukh saleem@SaleemFarrukh

@MIshaqDar50 What Ishaq Dar sb has done here, and what Pakistan has done in this crisis, represents the most consequential and constructive foreign policy moment for Islamabad in a generation

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Yasir Mahmood
Yasir Mahmood@MofaYasir·
As businesses automate more & more with less employees, Nation states will run more & more businesses. Privitization is inversely proportional to the Scale of Automation & AI.
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Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
@ZiauddinY I spent my whole life stressing if I could educate my daughters well. It was unnecessary as Allah always finds a way for them. I believe it was the best investment I made. The situation in Afghanistan is against nature, and at the risk sounding too complacent, girls will prevail
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Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
Question: is Pakistan going to be the custodian of the uranium?
Kamran Khan@AajKamranKhan

PAKISTAN IS THE COUNTRY OF THE HOUR FIELD MARTIAL ASIM MUNIR IS THE LEADER OF THE HOUR Pakistan is positioning itself as the lead mediator trying to broker an end to the US’s and Israel’s war against Iran, using its military strongman’s ties to Tehran and warm relationship with Donald Trump. Army chief Asim Munir spoke with Trump on Sunday, according to two people briefed on the call, while Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday. The conversation between the Pakistani and Iranian leaders came at around the same time as Trump announced that he was delaying his threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants after “very good and productive” conversations with Tehran to end the war. It was not clear if Pakistan’s mediation push and Trump’s post on his Truth Social social media platform, which caused oil prices to fall sharply, were related. The White House declined to elaborate on Trump negotiations. “These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the United States will not negotiate through the news media,” the White House said. Turkey, which was involved in mediation efforts before the war, has also been talking to Iranian officials and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. Pakistan’s foreign minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar held talks with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on Monday. Egypt’s foreign minister Badr Abdelatty also spoke to his Iranian and Pakistani counterparts on Sunday, as well as Witkoff and Qatar’s foreign minister.

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Invictus retweetledi
Ahfaz Mustafa
Ahfaz Mustafa@ahfazmustaf·
Immediate stuff that needs to be done to soften the blow or to avoid crash landing. 1. Call an emergency MP meeting and hike 100 bps. ( send signal we are prepared to reduce demand. 2. Let the currency go 5 / 7 percent. Ensure exports and remittances stay, while discouraging the all redundant exports. 3. Hand out money through bisp to the people who need it. 4. Ensure no subsidized loan is given to stimulate demand, Terf / Home. 5. The single most important step, which should be taken anyways is do actively fire half the giv employees and auction off government assets and raise cash. Privatise, sell cars, land, PLANES etc. 6. Pass on fuel prices as is, without any relief drama. This relief will turn into a cost in 2 / 3 months We have dealt with demand destruction just now post covid, lets take the small steps now to avoid the back breaking steps later.
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Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
WELKER: Do you think it's appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of a Bronze Star, Purple Heart recipient who served in Vietnam? BESSENT: Neither one of us can understand what has been done to the president and his family WELKER: But is it appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of any American citizen? BESSENT: Give what has been done to President Trump and his family, it is impossible for either of us to understand what he's been through WELKER: So you don't think there's anything wrong with a post saying, 'Good. Robert Mueller's dead'? BESSENT: We should have empathy for what's been done to the president and his family
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Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
@DalrympleWill @Huk06 @TheEconomist Why are they still relevant? I subscribed for 20 years but dropped them after WMD lies and Abu Gharaib coverage. Economist is total garbage.
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William Dalrymple
William Dalrymple@DalrympleWill·
@TheEconomist has utterly destroyed its reputation with its deeply racist and profoundly bigoted coverage of the mass-murder of the people of Gaza. For six months we have seen issue after issue of scandalously one sided-coverage which has has made it complicit in the continued enslavement of the Palestinian people, the on-going seizure of their land, the systematic abuse of their human rights and the industrial slaughter of their innocent civilians in both Gaza and the West Bank. Shame on its senior editorial staff responsible for the travesty of inhumanity and bias. @zannymb
Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין@MairavZ

Am I the only one who found the Economist cover a bit melodramatic and jumping the gun? Israel still has full US backing and other countries and is not under nearly enough pressure to stop the war. You know who is alone? Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem

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Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
@akleghari Awais, if this is all true, why you constantly tinkering with the formulas instead of just investing heavily in battery power and battery power development to spread out the load?
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Awais Leghari
Awais Leghari@akleghari·
(1/2) 1. The notion that Government is against solarization is completely false. The government fully supports solarization but in a manner that is JUST to all consumers and doesn’t unfairly burden non solar consumers. Secondly though, solar power makes up for fossil fuel generated power, however, that is only during solar hours of the day. During the night time, stable/dispatchable sources of power generation are mandatory for the power grid to remain stable and cater for the dynamically changing load conditions. It is a universal truth that high penetration of unmanaged rooftop solar introduces grid stability challenges, including steep evening ramp requirements that actually increase dependence on flexible gas based generation. 2. Given the unprecedented LNG supply disruption following force majeure declared by QatarEnergy amid the US–Israel–Iran conflict, some degree of demand management across sectors has become unavoidable. While limited curtailment to the fertiliser sector may occur during such crises, it is typically managed carefully due to its importance for food security. Similarly, any restrictions on commercial or higher-end domestic consumers would be targeted, temporary, and driven by system exigencies, not policy preference. The overarching objective in such extraordinary circumstances is to balance supply and demand, protect priority sectors, and maintain system stability without triggering widespread consumer unrest. 3. ⁠The suggestion to fully shift to coal-based generation and shut down gas plants does not reflect how the power system is optimally operated. In practice, indigenous coal plants are already prioritized in the merit order due to their relatively lower fuel cost and are dispatched accordingly. However, gas-based plants serve a critical role in providing flexibility, particularly during peak demand periods and for managing rapid ramping requirements, such as the transition when solar generation drops at sunset and consumers shift back to the grid. Completely sidelining gas plants would compromise system stability and operational responsiveness. Therefore, a balanced dispatch strategy is being practiced where coal provides base generation and gas supports flexibility. This is essential for reliable grid operation. 4. ⁠The assertion that higher gas prices for captive power have pushed industry away from the grid is not fully supported by recent trends. In fact, following the imposition of the captive power levy, grid demand has increased significantly, indicating that industrial consumers are largely staying connected to the grid rather than shifting away. This is further reinforced by the government’s surplus power package, offering electricity at around PKR 23/kWh, which has provided a strong price signal to retain industrial load on the system. For instance, January 2026 recorded the highest ever demand with a 12.1% year-on-year increase, while February 2026 also saw robust growth of around 11% YoY in energy demand. For the first two months, industrial consumers have collectively realized savings of approximately PKR 12 billion under the surplus power package.
Miftah Ismail@MiftahIsmail

Pakistan was getting 8 LNG cargoes from Qatar every month. 6 from a deal made in 2016 and 2 from a deal made in 2020. The deal made in 2016 is due for renegotiation this year. It is now quite clear we aren’t going to get any more cargoes from Qatar for a few months and the 6 cargo deal will not be renewed. How will or should we deal with this shortage. 1. The biggest help in dealing with the lack of LNG will come from solar power installed by industrial and domestic consumers across Pakistan. While the Shehbaz Sharif government has been trying very hard to disincentivise solar power across Pakistan, it hasn’t succeeded and it is this solar power that is going to be Pakistan’s saviour. 2. Pakistan has already started curtailing gas to the (much pampered and favoured) fertiliser industry. It might even be needed to curtail some gas to commercial enterprises like restaurants & hotels (excluding tandoors and dhabas), and even some upscale domestic users. 3. Pakistan should now run its coal plants and not give any gas to power plants. We have the curse of excess capacity: we either have to keep idle and pay capacity payments to gas plants or to coal plants. We should now run the coal plants and keep idle gas plants. 4. This govt has made gas to industry that choose to, or are forced to, make their own power prohibitively expensive. This has resulted in many opting for solar, wind and biomass power. This has further decreased reliance on grid. But now with gas shortage, the govt should ensure continuous supply to industry of power and of process gas. 5. Had the govt in the last two years of cheap oil and gas made some basic reforms, worked on privatisation, introduced competition by giving Third Party Access, reduced gas theft and losses, rationalised prices and stopped giving subsidies to its favoured lobbies, Pakistan would have been in a much better position to face the coming crisis. But given this incompetent and timid government, the decisions of consumers to not rely on government and install their own solar, wind and biomass power will be out saving grace.

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Mian Mobeen Shafaat 🇵🇸🇵🇰 🍁
One of these MFs (kite) attacked top of my balding head at racecourse park. Like WTF I was just power walking listening to @DalrympleWill’s pod and baam, I thought some tree fell on me. Dude relax WTH did I do? The MF must be Zionist.
Mian Mobeen Shafaat 🇵🇸🇵🇰 🍁 tweet media
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Invictus
Invictus@Invictus23626·
Pro tip, if you ever subscribe and then unsubscribe to @x or @premium, just remember they are crooks. They won't adhere to their terms and they won't reply.
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Invictus retweetledi
Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
Iran is firing MORE and they are hitting MORE per shot than during the first days of the conflict. Not good..
Andreas Steno Larsen tweet media
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Donald J. Gorbachev
Donald J. Gorbachev@donaldgorbachev·
The five-second epistemology of the variant view. These will be the guys on CNBC in six months. The ones they’ll call geniuses for seeing it coming. The ones who’ll get the chyron — ANALYST WHO PREDICTED THE CRISIS. They didn’t predict anything. They read the Strait three weeks after the kitchen read the Strait. The kitchen said it on day one. The petrodollar. The Strait. The price. The theology. Day one. These guys are showing up on day nineteen with Ras Laffan literally on fire and the Aramco refinery in Riyadh literally hit and calling it a variant view. The market thinks these people are the alarmists. These people are late. The market thinks they’re early and they’re three weeks behind the kitchen. And the variant view is conservative. The variant is still pricing this as a basic bitch black swan. COVID was a basic bitch black swan. Demand shock. Stimulus response. Vaccine timeline. Recovery model. The playbook worked because the playbook existed. This is not a basic bitch black swan. This is a real black swan. The kind that breaks the playbook. The kind where the supply is shut and the mechanism that restores it is dead and the theology that controls it runs on a 1,400-year operating system and the negotiator is a martyr and the new leader said no and the civilization on the other side defines death as happiness. There is no vaccine for Karbala. There is no stimulus for the Strait. There is no recovery model for the petrodollar dying. The basic bitch black swan has a chapter in the textbook. The real black swan burns the textbook. The physical crude in Oman above $150 is trading the real black swan. The financial crude at $98 is trading the basic bitch one. The $50 gap is the distance between the playbook and the fire. $150 isn’t the ceiling. $150 is where the dock sat before Ras Laffan was on fire and both ends of the world’s largest gas field were burning and the IRGC still had Jubail and Mesaieed and Samref and Al Hosn on the list being checked off with missiles tonight. The market’s resolution timeline has no mechanism. The negotiator is dead. The IRGC is executing evacuation orders facility by facility. 95 to 140 jackup rigs idle. The Strait at 98% closed. The Ford heading to Crete. The Fed saying too early. The CIA selling the next pretext because the current one expired. The vice president saying temporary from Michigan while the drawdown comes in at three times the estimate and gas spikes 86 cents in eighteen days — the fastest since Katrina. The risk is India. If anyone produces a quiet resolution it’s India doing the thing the empire can’t because the empire killed the person who did it. Watch the AIS data. Watch the Oman physical. If neither moves, the variant wins. And the variant is conservative. And the kitchen said it first. Day one. Day nineteen. The guys on CNBC in six months didn’t call it. The kitchen called it. COVID was a basic bitch black swan. This is the real one. Oman at $150. Brent at $109. The gap is the Strait. The Strait is closed.
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