Bijan

Day and night flight operations continue aboard the world's largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78). The Ford Carrier Strike Group continues to operate in the Red Sea, supporting maritime security in U.S. 5th Fleet.

طرح ارائه شده تریتا پارسی و سیامک نمازی در 1999 در قبرس برای راه اندازی لابی ایرانی در آمریکا

1. "Oil exports have been a constrained source of FX" If oil was already a constrained source of FX, then cutting it to zero via blockade isn't manageable. The rial lost 60%+ post-war, food inflation hit 105%, and Iran is printing 10-million-rial notes worth ~$7. You don't get to argue "oil didn't matter much" and then claim a 6-month runway. 2. "War depresses import demand" War doesn't eliminate import need, it shifts it. Iran imports ~$159M/day in industrial inputs, machinery, medicine, and raw materials. Depressed consumer demand for smartphones doesn't offset the collapse of supply chains keeping factories, refineries, and hospitals running. 3. "Non-oil trade with Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan is significant" These exports are mostly petrochemicals and metals, already down 13% in value befoire the blockade. Production facilities have been hit by strikes, and Iran can't import the catalysts and industrial inputs needed to keep what's left running. Also, lower production needs to address domestic need. Don't forget about gasoline shortage. 90%+ of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade flows through now-blockaded southern ports. Alternative routes via Jask, Chabahar, and the Caspian handle less than 10% of volume. 4. "Iran has $100B+ in international reserves" These are in restricted/frozen/blocked accounts and inaccessible, that's exactly why the regime made unfreezing them a non-negotiable precondition in Islamabad. Even if a host country made the risky decision to release funds, good luck finding a bank willing to touch them. Obama had to fly pallets of cash to Tehran because no bank in the world would process the transfer. "China might oblige"? Under what mechanism, and through which correspondent bank? These aren't reserves. 5. "6-month window before the economy unravels" Iran's economy was in freefall before the blockade, inflation at 47.5%, currency in collapse, largest bank failed in December, mass protests since January. Every day of blockade accelerates the unraveling. There is no 6-month cushion. 6. "Iran was at the negotiating table in good faith" Iran still hasn't reopened the Strait per the ceasefire. 230 loaded tankers are waiting. That's not good faith, that's leverage Iran tried to hold and is now losing. 7. "The blockade isn't really enforceable" The U.S. Navy is physically present and CENTCOM declared it would interdict all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. This isn't a sanctions regime requiring bank compliance, it's warships. A blockade doesn't need to be permanent to be devastating. No oil revenue means no imports, no imports means hyperinflation, and Iran's "diversified" economy runs on inputs it can no longer get.

All presidents, Democrats and Republicans, have always remained firm on denying Iran a nuclear weapon. The disagreement has always been how to achieve that objective .